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Patriots vs. Ravens prediction: Baltimore favored to win ‘SNF’ Week 16 [2025]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Ryan Leaver, Senior Sports and Betting Editor
Get New England Patriots vs Baltimore Ravens predictions for NFL Sunday.
The Baltimore Ravens and New England Patriots are scheduled to meet in Week 16 of the NFL season at M&T Bank Stadium on Sunday, starting at 8:20 PM ET.
Based on the latest simulations, Dimers' advanced NFL model projects the Ravens as the most likely winner of the Patriots vs. Ravens game.
This article offers an expanded analysis of Sunday's matchup, including projected touchdown scorers, best bets and player prop picks.
Patriots vs. Ravens prediction: Who will win ‘Sunday Night Football’?
Since our Patriots-Ravens predictions earlier in the week, we have simulated the outcome of Sunday's NFL matchup between the Patriots and Ravens 10,000 times as part of our NFL predictions coverage.
Our famous predictive model currently gives the Ravens a 60% chance of beating the Patriots in Week 16 of the NFL season. Our predicted final score has the Ravens winning 26-23.
According to our model, the Patriots (+3) have a 56% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 48.5 points has a 52% chance of going over.
To see win probabilities for every matchup this week, check out our expert NFL Week 16 straight up picks.
Patriots vs. Ravens odds
We have sourced the best NFL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Patriots | Ravens |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | +3 (+100) | -3 (-120) |
| Moneyline | +156 | -180 |
| Total | o48.5 (-110) | u48.5 (-105) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Patriots vs. Ravens picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Patriots +3 | +100 |
| Moneyline | Patriots | +156 |
| Total | Over 48.5 | -110 |
According to our NFL best bets, the top play to make on this game is Patriots +3 at the spread.
Patriots vs. Ravens TD scorers
Who will score a touchdown in Patriots vs. Ravens?
According to our list of touchdown scorer predictions for Week 16, Derrick Henry is most likely to score an anytime TD in Patriots vs. Ravens.
Our projections give Henry a 57.1% chance of scoring a TD at M&T Bank Stadium, while the running back is a 13.4% chance of scoring the first touchdown the game.
Anytime touchdown scorer predictions
New England Patriots
| Player | Anytime TD Probability |
|---|---|
| TreVeyon Henderson (RB) | 42.3% |
| Rhamondre Stevenson (RB) | 29.4% |
| Hunter Henry (TE) | 27.7% |
| Stefon Diggs (WR) | 27.3% |
| Drake Maye (QB) | 22.9% |
Baltimore Ravens
| Player | Anytime TD Probability |
|---|---|
| Derrick Henry (RB) | 57.1% |
| Mark Andrews (TE) | 35.9% |
| Zay Flowers (WR) | 32.7% |
| Isaiah Likely (TE) | 24.8% |
| Rashod Bateman (WR) | 20.1% |
First touchdown scorer predictions
New England Patriots
| Player | First TD Probability |
|---|---|
| TreVeyon Henderson (RB) | 9.0% |
| Rhamondre Stevenson (RB) | 5.7% |
| Hunter Henry (TE) | 5.3% |
| Stefon Diggs (WR) | 5.3% |
| Drake Maye (QB) | 4.3% |
Baltimore Ravens
| Player | First TD Probability |
|---|---|
| Derrick Henry (RB) | 13.4% |
| Mark Andrews (TE) | 7.0% |
| Zay Flowers (WR) | 6.3% |
| Isaiah Likely (TE) | 4.5% |
| Rashod Bateman (WR) | 3.6% |
Patriots vs Ravens player props
Discover our predictions for the players likely to lead in passing, rushing and receiving yards for both the Patriots and Ravens. Head to our NFL player projections page now to access a full list of player prop projections for every offensive player in this matchup and all other Week 16 games.
Quarterbacks
Of the starting quarterbacks, the Patriots' Drake Maye is projected for 248 passing yards. The Ravens' Lamar Jackson is expected to throw for 214 yards.
| Player | Proj. Pass Yards |
|---|---|
| Drake Maye (NE) | 248 |
| Lamar Jackson (BAL) | 214 |
Patriots rushing
| Player | Proj. Rush Yards |
|---|---|
| TreVeyon Henderson | 51 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 32 |
| Drake Maye | 26 |
Ravens rushing
| Player | Proj. Rush Yards |
|---|---|
| Derrick Henry | 80 |
| Lamar Jackson | 38 |
| Keaton Mitchell | 27 |
Patriots receiving
| Player | Proj. Rec. Yards |
|---|---|
| Stefon Diggs | 47 |
| Hunter Henry | 43 |
| Mack Hollins | 42 |
| Kayshon Boutte | 38 |
| DeMario Douglas | 22 |
Ravens receiving
| Player | Proj. Rec. Yards |
|---|---|
| Zay Flowers | 67 |
| Mark Andrews | 36 |
| Isaiah Likely | 29 |
| Rashod Bateman | 27 |
| DeAndre Hopkins | 19 |
Patriots vs. Ravens game-day updates and essential details
The NFL Week 16 game between the Ravens and Patriots at M&T Bank Stadium is scheduled to start at 8:20 PM ET.
- Who: New England Patriots vs. Baltimore Ravens
- Date: Sunday, December 21, 2025
- Time: 8:20 PM ET/5:20PM PT
- Venue: M&T Bank Stadium
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Conclusion
We predict the Ravens, with a 60% win probability, will likely beat the Patriots in Week 16 of the NFL season.
AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Patriots vs. Ravens insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are based on up-to-date data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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Ryan Leaver uses advanced statistical models and simulations to predict outcomes and provide predictions for the NBA, NFL, college football, college basketball, and soccer. He offers detailed game previews, best bets, props, and futures articles.
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