NBA Playoffs player props today: Saturday's best props include Alperen Sengun [5/1/2026]

Alperen Sengun over 7.5 assists (+200)

• Edge: 19.0%
• Probability: 52.3%
• Projection: 7.9
• Game: Lakers vs. Rockets (9:30PM ET)

Our model has flagged value on Houston's Alperen Sengun over 7.5 assists. A probability of 52.3% gives this play an edge of 19.0% at +200 odds.

Duncan Robinson over 11.5 points scored (+125)

• Edge: 7.8%
• Probability: 52.3%
• Projection: 12.5
• Game: Pistons vs. Magic (7:00PM ET)

Duncan Robinson’s points scored prop shows a 7.8% edge at +125 odds, according to our model, which projects him for 12.5 points scored on the over 11.5 line.

Ausar Thompson over 10.5 points scored (+120)

• Edge: 6.5%
• Probability: 51.9%
• Projection: 11.4
• Game: Pistons vs. Magic (7:00PM ET)

The data highlights value on Ausar Thompson over 10.5 points scored, with simulations showing a 51.9% probability and a 6.5% edge at +120.

Luke Kennard over 9.5 points scored (+130)

• Edge: 8.2%
• Probability: 51.7%
• Projection: 10.3
• Game: Lakers vs. Rockets (9:30PM ET)

Our model projects Luke Kennard to record 10.3 points scored today, creating an edge of 8.2% on the over 9.5 line at +130 odds.

Ausar Thompson over 1.5 blocks (+136)

• Edge: 8.2%
• Probability: 50.6%
• Projection: 1.6
• Game: Pistons vs. Magic (7:00PM ET)

Simulations indicate value on Ausar Thompson over 1.5 blocks for Detroit, showing an edge of 8.2% at +136 odds.

Amen Thompson over 6.5 assists (+140)

• Edge: 7.6%
• Probability: 49.3%
• Projection: 6.4
• Game: Lakers vs. Rockets (9:30PM ET)

Amen Thompson’s assists prop shows an edge of 7.6% at +140 odds, according to our model, which projects him for 6.4 today.

Anthony Black over 1.5 steals (+129)

• Edge: 5.3%
• Probability: 48.9%
• Projection: 1.4
• Game: Pistons vs. Magic (7:00PM ET)

Our model projects Anthony Black for 1.4 steals for Orlando, creating an edge of 5.3% on over 1.5 at +129 odds.

Cade Cunningham over 6.5 rebounds (+130)

• Edge: 5.3%
• Probability: 48.8%
• Projection: 6.3
• Game: Pistons vs. Magic (7:00PM ET)

Our expert modelling projects Cade Cunningham for 6.3 rebounds, creating value on the over 6.5 line at +130 odds and a 5.3% edge.

Scottie Barnes over 1.5 blocks (+130)

• Edge: 5.2%
• Probability: 48.7%
• Projection: 1.3
• Game: Cavaliers vs. Raptors (7:30PM ET)

A 5.2% edge on the over 6.5 blocks line makes Scottie Barnes a value play in Cavaliers vs. Raptors, with our model projecting him for 1.3 blocks at +130 odds.

Ausar Thompson over 8.5 rebounds (+155)

• Edge: 8.9%
• Probability: 48.1%
• Projection: 8.1
• Game: Pistons vs. Magic (7:00PM ET)

Simulations project Ausar Thompson for 8.1 rebounds here, creating a 8.9% edge on the over 8.5 line at +155 odds.

NBA player prop summary: Friday, May 1, 2026

A quick summary of today’s top props by probability according to our model as of 12:02AM ET:

Matchup	Prop	Odds	Edge	Probability
Lakers vs. Rockets	Alperen Sengun over 7.5 assists	+200 @ fanatics	19.0%	52.3%
Pistons vs. Magic	Duncan Robinson over 11.5 points scored	+125 @ fanatics	7.8%	52.3%
Pistons vs. Magic	Ausar Thompson over 10.5 points scored	+120 @ fanatics	8.2%	51.7%
Lakers vs. Rockets	Luke Kennard over 9.5 points scored	+130 @ fanatics	8.2%	51.7%
Pistons vs. Magic	Ausar Thompson over 1.5 blocks	+136 @ DraftKings	8.2%	50.6%
Lakers vs. Rockets	Amen Thompson over 6.5 assists	+140 @ fanatics	7.6%	49.3%
Pistons vs. Magic	Anthony Black over 1.5 steals	+129 @ DraftKings	5.3%	48.9%
Pistons vs. Magic	Cade Cunningham over 6.5 rebounds	+130 @ fanatics	5.3%	48.8%
Cavaliers vs. Raptors	Scottie Barnes over 6.5 blocks	+130 @ BetMGM	5.2%	48.7%
Pistons vs. Magic	Ausar Thompson over 8.5 rebounds	+155 @ fanatics	8.9%	48.1%

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Conclusion

For May 1, 2026, our NBA prop bets feature players such as Alperen Sengun, Duncan Robinson and Ausar Thompson. Each pick is grounded in real-time data and advanced simulations to help you bet with clarity and purpose.

Built using automation and human oversight, this article draws on the latest data to deliver accurate, timely insights. If using this article for betting, Dimers encourages responsible gambling.