Get first basket predictions today guided by expert analysis of Tuesday's NBA slate.
Our NBA first basket predictions for November 18, 2025, are based on Tuesday's latest data and matchups.
Our NBA first basket predictions for Tuesday, November 18, 2025, are live—with Jaylen Brown of the Celtics the most likely player to score the first basket based on the latest Dimers Pro simulation data.
Tuesday's first basket predictions come straight from our NBA first basket odds and player projections, which highlight not only first basket probabilities, but also projected points, rebounds, assists and more for every player on today's basketball slate.
Who will score the first basket tonight? [November 18, 2025]
According to our data-driven analysis, the most likely NBA player to score the first basket across today's matchups is Jaylen Brown, with a probability of 17.9%.
Player (Team)
FB Probability
Jaylen Brown (Celtics)
17.9%
Lauri Markkanen (Jazz)
15.8%
Shaedon Sharpe (Trail Blazers)
15.1%
Stephen Curry (Warriors)
15.0%
De'Aaron Fox (Spurs)
14.9%
Devin Booker (Suns)
14.5%
Jalen Johnson (Hawks)
14.3%
Jalen Duren (Pistons)
12.6%
Deni Avdija (Trail Blazers)
12.0%
Luka Doncic (Lakers)
12.0%
Nic Claxton (Nets)
11.9%
Dillon Brooks (Suns)
11.5%
Keyonte George (Jazz)
11.2%
Deandre Ayton (Lakers)
11.0%
Franz Wagner (Magic)
10.9%
Will Richard (Warriors)
10.8%
Nickeil Alexander-Walker (Hawks)
10.7%
Jalen Suggs (Magic)
10.4%
Luke Kornet (Spurs)
10.3%
Tristan da Silva (Magic)
10.1%
Ace Bailey (Jazz)
10.0%
Austin Reaves (Lakers)
9.9%
Payton Pritchard (Celtics)
9.8%
Onyeka Okongwu (Hawks)
9.8%
Jaylen Wells (Grizzlies)
9.7%
Mark Williams (Suns)
9.6%
Cedric Coward (Grizzlies)
9.6%
Desmond Bane (Magic)
9.4%
Harrison Barnes (Spurs)
9.2%
Moses Moody (Warriors)
9.1%
Jerami Grant (Trail Blazers)
9.0%
Terance Mann (Nets)
8.7%
Following Brown closely are Lauri Markkanen at 15.8% and Shaedon Sharpe at 15.1%.
Stephen Curry and De'Aaron Fox also feature, with the full list of first basket projections for Tuesday available via today’s NBA player projections.
Jaylen Brown is among the top contenders in the NBA to score the first basket on Tuesday, November 18, 2025.
Best NBA first basket picks [11/18/2025]
Having simulated the outcome of today's NBA slate thousands of times, our leading predictive analytics model has generated the best NBA first basket bet for you to make on Tuesday.
Our model has identified the best NBA first basket bet for Tuesday's NBA slate in the game between the Warriors and Magic. The bet is on Will Richard (GSW) at odds of +1300 with FanDuel Sportsbook, with an edge of 3.6% according to our analysis.
Although Richard doesn't feature in our model's top 10 most likely first basket scorers for Tuesday's NBA slate, he does present the best betting opportunity for those searching for an edge on the market.
For November 18, 2025, our NBA first basket predictions feature standout players such as Jaylen Brown, Lauri Markkanen and Shaedon Sharpe—all of whom are among the top projected chances to open the scoring in today’s games. But when it comes to +EV betting, it’s Will Richard who emerges as the top play, producing a calculated 3.6% edge at +1300 odds.
These projections are the result of 10,000 simulations, giving you a reliable starting point for smarter prop betting. Always wager with care—help is available at 1-800-GAMBLER if you or someone close to you needs support.
Nick Slade, with nearly two decades of experience, is the Chief Content Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, overseeing content for Dimers. He specializes in soccer, NBA, and NHL betting, leveraging predictive analytics and machine learning to provide accurate betting insights.
