Get first basket predictions today guided by expert analysis of Tuesday's NBA slate.
Our NBA first basket predictions for November 4, 2025, are based on Tuesday's latest data and matchups.
Our NBA first basket predictions for Tuesday, November 4, 2025, are live—with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander of the Thunder the most likely player to score the first basket per the latest Dimers Pro simulation data.
Tuesday's first basket predictions pull from our full list of NBA first basket odds and player projections, which highlight not only first basket probabilities, but also projected points, rebounds, assists and more for every player on today's basketball slate.
Who will score the first basket tonight? [November 4, 2025]
According to our data-driven analysis, the most likely NBA player to score the first basket in any of today's matchups is Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, with a probability of 18.3%.
Player (Team)
FB Probability
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (Thunder)
18.3%
Jordan Poole (Pelicans)
16.6%
Collin Sexton (Hornets)
15.2%
Stephen Curry (Warriors)
14.3%
Devin Booker (Suns)
14.1%
Miles Bridges (Hornets)
13.8%
Ivica Zubac (Clippers)
12.9%
Jonathan Kuminga (Warriors)
12.4%
Jalen Johnson (Hawks)
12.4%
Franz Wagner (Magic)
12.2%
Following Gilgeous-Alexander closely are Jordan Poole at 16.6% and Collin Sexton at 15.2%.
Stephen Curry and Devin Booker are among those in the top 10, with the full list of first basket projections for Tuesday available via today’s NBA player projections.
Jordan Poole is one of the most likely NBA players to score the first basket on Tuesday, November 4, 2025.
Best NBA first basket picks [11/4/2025]
After simulating the outcome of today's NBA slate thousands of times, our predictive model has discovered the best NBA first basket bet for you to make on Tuesday.
Our model has identified the best NBA first basket bet for Tuesday's NBA slate in the game between the Magic and Hawks. The bet is on Jalen Suggs (ORL) at odds of +1300 with FanDuel Sportsbook, with an edge of 4.0% according to our analysis.
Although Suggs doesn't feature in our model's top 10 most likely first basket scorers for Tuesday's NBA slate, he does present the best betting opportunity for those aiming to gain an edge on the market.
For November 4, 2025, our NBA first basket predictions showcase big-name players like Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jordan Poole and Collin Sexton—all of whom are among the top projected chances to open the scoring in today’s games. But when it comes to +EV betting, it’s Jalen Suggs who emerges as the top pick, offering a calculated 4.0% edge at +1300 odds.
These projections are the result of 10,000 simulations, giving you a reliable foundation for smarter prop betting. Always wager with care—help is available at 1-800-GAMBLER if you or someone close to you needs support.
Nick Slade, with nearly two decades of experience, is the Chief Content Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, overseeing content for Dimers. He specializes in soccer, NBA, and NHL betting, leveraging predictive analytics and machine learning to provide accurate betting insights.
