Get first basket predictions today backed by expert analysis of Tuesday's NBA slate.
Our NBA first basket predictions for October 28, 2025, are based on Tuesday's latest data and matchups.
Our NBA first basket predictions for Tuesday, October 28, 2025, have landed—with Giannis Antetokounmpo of the Bucks the most likely player to score the first basket according to the latest Dimers Pro simulation data.
Tuesday's first basket predictions pull from our proprietary NBA first basket odds and player projections, which highlight not only first basket probabilities, but also projected points, rebounds, assists and more for every player on today's basketball slate.
Who will score the first basket tonight? [October 28, 2025]
According to our data-driven analysis, the most likely NBA player to score the first basket across today's matchups is Giannis Antetokounmpo, with a probability of 18.6%.
Player (Team)
FB Probability
Giannis Antetokounmpo (Bucks)
18.6%
Jalen Brunson (Knicks)
14.8%
Kawhi Leonard (Clippers)
13.6%
Stephen Curry (Warriors)
13.6%
Jonathan Kuminga (Warriors)
13.0%
Ivica Zubac (Clippers)
11.8%
Karl-Anthony Towns (Knicks)
11.4%
Mikal Bridges (Knicks)
9.7%
James Harden (Clippers)
9.2%
OG Anunoby (Knicks)
8.7%
Following Antetokounmpo closely are Jalen Brunson at 14.8% and Kawhi Leonard at 13.6%.
Stephen Curry and Jonathan Kuminga are among those in the top 10, with the full list of first basket projections for Tuesday available via today’s NBA player projections.
Jalen Brunson is among the top contenders in the NBA to score the first basket on Tuesday, October 28, 2025.
Best NBA first basket picks [10/28/2025]
After simulating the result of today's NBA matchups 10K times each, our trusted predictive analytics model has found the best NBA first basket bet for you to make on Tuesday.
Our model has identified the best NBA first basket bet for Tuesday's NBA slate in the game between the Clippers and Warriors. The bet is on Kawhi Leonard (LAC) at odds of +800 with FanDuel Sportsbook, with an edge of 2.5% according to our analysis.
Not only does Leonard present an edge according to our model, but he is also among our top three most likely first basket scorers for today, as noted in the list above.
For October 28, 2025, our NBA first basket predictions feature star players such as Giannis Antetokounmpo, Jalen Brunson and Kawhi Leonard—all of whom are among the top projected chances to open the scoring in today’s games. But when it comes to +EV betting, it’s Kawhi Leonard who emerges as the top pick, offering a calculated 2.5% edge at +800 odds.
These projections are the result of 10,000 simulations, giving you a reliable starting point for smarter prop betting. Always wager with care—help is available at 1-800-GAMBLER if you or someone close to you needs support.
Nick Slade, with nearly two decades of experience, is the Chief Content Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, overseeing content for Dimers. He specializes in soccer, NBA, and NHL betting, leveraging predictive analytics and machine learning to provide accurate betting insights.
