Get first basket predictions today backed by expert analysis of Thursday's NBA slate.
Our NBA first basket predictions for November 20, 2025, are based on Thursday's latest data and matchups.
Our NBA first basket predictions for Thursday, November 20, 2025, are live—with Tyrese Maxey of the 76ers the most likely player to score the first basket per the latest Dimers Pro simulation data.
Thursday's first basket predictions come straight from our NBA first basket odds and player projections, which highlight not only first basket probabilities, but also projected points, rebounds, assists and more for every player on today's basketball slate.
Who will score the first basket tonight? [November 20, 2025]
According to our data-driven analysis, the most likely NBA player to score the first basket across all of today's matchups is Tyrese Maxey, with a probability of 15.7%.
Player (Team)
FB Probability
Tyrese Maxey (76ers)
15.7%
De'Aaron Fox (Spurs)
15.5%
Ryan Rollins (Bucks)
13.5%
Kyle Kuzma (Bucks)
13.4%
James Harden (Clippers)
13.2%
Ivica Zubac (Clippers)
12.9%
Jalen Johnson (Hawks)
12.5%
Santi Aldama (Grizzlies)
12.3%
Drew Eubanks (Kings)
12.1%
John Collins (Clippers)
11.5%
Following Maxey closely are De'Aaron Fox at 15.5% and Ryan Rollins at 13.5%.
Kyle Kuzma and James Harden also feature, with the full list of first basket projections for Thursday available via today’s NBA player projections.
Tyrese Maxey is among the top contenders in the NBA to score the first basket on Thursday, November 20, 2025.
Best NBA first basket picks [11/20/2025]
After simulating the outcome of today's NBA slate thousands of times, our independent predictive analytics model has found the best NBA first basket betting pick for Thursday.
Our model has identified the best NBA first basket bet for Thursday's NBA slate in the game between the 76ers and Bucks. The bet is on Ryan Rollins (MIL) at odds of +950 with FanDuel Sportsbook, with an edge of 4.0% according to our analysis.
Not only does Rollins present an edge according to the model, but he is also among our top three most likely first basket scorers for today, as noted in the list above.
For November 20, 2025, our NBA first basket predictions spotlight big-name players such as Tyrese Maxey, De'Aaron Fox and Ryan Rollins—all of whom are among the top projected chances to open the scoring in today’s games. But when it comes to betting value, it’s Ryan Rollins who emerges as the top pick, offering a calculated 4.0% edge at +950 odds.
These projections are built from 10,000 game simulations, giving you a reliable basis for smarter prop betting. Always wager with care—help is available at 1-800-GAMBLER if you or someone close to you needs support.
Nick Slade, with nearly two decades of experience, is the Chief Content Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, overseeing content for Dimers. He specializes in soccer, NBA, and NHL betting, leveraging predictive analytics and machine learning to provide accurate betting insights.
