Get first basket predictions today backed by expert analysis of Thursday's NBA slate.
Our NBA first basket predictions for October 30, 2025, are based on Thursday's latest data and matchups.
Our NBA first basket predictions for Thursday, October 30, 2025, are live—with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander of the Thunder the most likely player to score the first basket per the latest Dimers Pro simulation data.
Thursday's first basket predictions pull from our full list of NBA first basket odds and player projections, which highlight not only first basket probabilities, but also projected points, rebounds, assists and more for every player on today's basketball slate.
Who will score the first basket tonight? [October 30, 2025]
According to our data-driven analysis, the most likely NBA player to score the first basket across today's matchups is Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, with a probability of 19.3%.
Player (Team)
FB Probability
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (Thunder)
19.3%
Victor Wembanyama (Spurs)
15.3%
Stephen Curry (Warriors)
13.7%
Jonathan Kuminga (Warriors)
13.1%
Alex Sarr (Wizards)
12.0%
Bam Adebayo (Heat)
11.6%
Ryan Rollins (Bucks)
11.0%
Kyle Kuzma (Bucks)
10.9%
Andrew Wiggins (Heat)
10.4%
Kel'el Ware (Heat)
10.3%
Following Gilgeous-Alexander closely are Victor Wembanyama at 15.3% and Stephen Curry at 13.7%.
Jonathan Kuminga and Alex Sarr are among those in the top 10, with the full list of first basket projections for Thursday available via today’s NBA player projections.
Victor Wembanyama is one of the most likely NBA players to score the first basket on Thursday, October 30, 2025.
Best NBA first basket picks [10/30/2025]
After simulating the result of today's NBA matchups thousands of times each, our trusted predictive analytics model has generated the best NBA first basket betting pick for Thursday.
Our model has identified the best NBA first basket bet for today's NBA slate in the game between the Wizards and Thunder. The bet is on Kyshawn George (WAS) at odds of +1200 with FanDuel Sportsbook, with an edge of 2.5% according to our analysis.
Although George doesn't feature in our model's top 10 most likely first basket scorers for Thursday's NBA slate, he does present the best betting opportunity for those searching for an edge on the market.
For October 30, 2025, our NBA first basket predictions highlight star players including Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Victor Wembanyama and Stephen Curry—all of whom are among the top projected chances to open the scoring in today’s games. But when it comes to +EV betting, it’s Kyshawn George who emerges as the top play, showing a calculated 2.5% edge at +1200 odds.
These projections are the result of 10,000 simulations, giving you a reliable foundation for smarter prop betting. Always wager with care—help is available at 1-800-GAMBLER if you or someone close to you needs support.
Nick Slade, with nearly two decades of experience, is the Chief Content Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, overseeing content for Dimers. He specializes in soccer, NBA, and NHL betting, leveraging predictive analytics and machine learning to provide accurate betting insights.
