Get first basket predictions today backed by expert analysis of Thursday's NBA slate.
Our NBA first basket predictions for October 23, 2025, are based on Thursday's latest data and matchups.
Our NBA first basket predictions for Thursday, October 23, 2025, are live—with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander of the Thunder the most likely player to score the first basket based on the latest Dimers Pro simulation data.
Thursday's first basket predictions pull from our full list of NBA first basket odds and player projections, which highlight not only first basket probabilities, but also projected points, rebounds, assists and more for every player on today's basketball slate.
Who will score the first basket tonight? [October 23, 2025]
According to our data-driven analysis, the most likely NBA player to score the first basket in any of today's matchups is Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, with a probability of 18.2%.
Player (Team)
FB Probability
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (Thunder)
18.2%
Pascal Siakam (Pacers)
13.1%
Jonathan Kuminga (Warriors)
13.0%
Stephen Curry (Warriors)
12.8%
Nikola Jokic (Nuggets)
12.4%
Bennedict Mathurin (Pacers)
12.1%
Chet Holmgren (Thunder)
12.0%
Jamal Murray (Nuggets)
11.1%
Cameron Johnson (Nuggets)
11.0%
Isaiah Jackson (Pacers)
9.8%
Following Gilgeous-Alexander closely are Pascal Siakam at 13.1% and Jonathan Kuminga at 13.0%.
Stephen Curry and Nikola Jokic are among those in the top 10, with the full list of first basket projections for Thursday available via today’s NBA player projections.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is among the top contenders in the NBA to score the first basket on Thursday, October 23, 2025.
Best NBA first basket picks [10/23/2025]
After simulating the outcome of today's NBA matchups 10K times each, our leading predictive analytics model has generated the best NBA first basket betting pick for Thursday.
Our model has identified the best NBA first basket bet for Thursday's NBA slate in the game between the Thunder and Pacers. The bet is on Bennedict Mathurin (IND) at odds of +900 with FanDuel Sportsbook, with an edge of 2.1% according to our analysis.
Dimers' model not only features Mathurin for him 2.1% betting edge but also ranks him among the top 10 most likely first basket scorers for today, as seen in the preceding list.
For October 23, 2025, our NBA first basket predictions highlight star players like Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Pascal Siakam and Jonathan Kuminga—all of whom are among the top projected chances to open the scoring in today’s games. But when it comes to betting value, it’s Bennedict Mathurin who emerges as the top play, showing a calculated 2.1% edge at +900 odds.
These projections are built from 10,000 simulations, giving you a reliable base for smarter prop betting. Always wager with care—help is available at 1-800-GAMBLER if you or someone close to you needs support.
Nick Slade, with nearly two decades of experience, is the Chief Content Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, overseeing content for Dimers. He specializes in soccer, NBA, and NHL betting, leveraging predictive analytics and machine learning to provide accurate betting insights.
