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NBA first basket picks and predictions for Sunday, December 7, 2025
Updated: | First published:
Written by Jason Bevilacqua, Head of Content and Communities
Get first basket predictions today backed by expert analysis of NBA slate on 12/7.
Our NBA first basket picks and predictions for today—Sunday, December 7, 2025—are live with the 76ers' Tyrese Maxey projected as the most likely player to score first.
These projections draw on key first basket stats, including player efficiency, shot frequency, and expected starting lineups, forming part of our daily NBA player projections.
Maxey, Nikola Jokic and Chet Holmgren lead Sunday’s most likely first basket scorers, while we also showcase tonight's top first basket value picks by comparing real-time odds to model-generated probabilities.
NBA first basket predictions tonight (December 7, 2025)
| Player | Team | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Tyrese Maxey | 76ers | 14.3% |
| Nikola Jokic | Nuggets | 14.2% |
| Chet Holmgren | Thunder | 14.1% |
| Jamal Murray | Nuggets | 13.6% |
| Deni Avdija | Trail Blazers | 13.5% |
| Keyonte George | Jazz | 13.4% |
| Luka Doncic | Lakers | 13.1% |
| Jalen Williams | Thunder | 12.8% |
| Jerami Grant | Trail Blazers | 12.6% |
| Brandon Miller | Hornets | 12.1% |
| Zach Edey | Grizzlies | 12.0% |
| Miles Bridges | Hornets | 11.9% |
| Joel Embiid | 76ers | 11.9% |
| Kon Knueppel | Hornets | 11.6% |
| Austin Reaves | Lakers | 11.4% |
NBA first basket picks today (December 7, 2025)
| Player | Team | Edge | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerami Grant | Trail Blazers | 2.6% | +900 | 12.6% |
| Coby White | Bulls | 1.4% | +1000 | 10.5% |
| Ayo Dosunmu | Bulls | 1.4% | +1000 | 10.5% |
| Ace Bailey | Jazz | 0.8% | +900 | 10.8% |
| Paul George | 76ers | 0.1% | +900 | 10.1% |
| Tyrese Maxey | 76ers | 0.0% | +600 | 14.3% |
Edges represent the difference between model probability and implied odds.
For more insights on prop markets and value plays across the league, explore our full list of NBA prop bets for 12/7.
Conclusion: Betting on today's NBA first basket
For Sunday, December 7, 2025, Tyrese Maxey, Nikola Jokic and Chet Holmgren lead our first basket projections, while Jerami Grant shapes as the strongest value play at +900. All picks and predictions are derived from Dimers’ NBA first basket model.
For guidance on safer wagering habits, explore our Responsible Gambling resources.
Jason Bevilacqua, an expert in MLB, NHL, NBA, MLS, and NFL, delivers game previews, best bets, and props. Since 2020, as Head of Social and Community at Dimers, he has contributed insightful articles utilizing data-driven models and simulations.
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