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NBA first basket picks and predictions for Sunday, November 30, 2025
Updated: | First published:
Written by Jason Bevilacqua, Head of Content and Communities
Get first basket predictions today driven by expert analysis of Sunday's NBA slate.
Our NBA first basket picks and predictions for today—Sunday, November 30, 2025—are live with the Celtics' Jaylen Brown projected as the most likely player to score first, according to Dimers’ latest first basket probabilities.
Dimers’ first basket projections draw on player efficiency, shot frequency, and expected starting lineups, forming part of our daily NBA player projections.
Brown, Deni Avdija and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander lead Sunday’s most likely first basket scorers, while we also highlight the best first basket value picks by comparing real-time odds to model-generated probabilities.
NBA first basket predictions today (November 30, 2025)
| Player | Team | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Jaylen Brown | Celtics | 20.1% |
| Deni Avdija | Trail Blazers | 16.3% |
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | Thunder | 15.7% |
| Anthony Edwards | Timberwolves | 14.8% |
| De'Aaron Fox | Spurs | 14.4% |
| Donovan Mitchell | Cavaliers | 14.3% |
| Jalen Brunson | Knicks | 14.2% |
| Tyrese Maxey | 76ers | 14.1% |
| Brandon Ingram | Raptors | 13.1% |
| Deandre Ayton | Lakers | 12.9% |
| Luka Doncic | Lakers | 12.7% |
| Jeremiah Fears | Pelicans | 12.6% |
| Jerami Grant | Trail Blazers | 12.4% |
| Scottie Barnes | Raptors | 12.3% |
| Derik Queen | Pelicans | 12.3% |
NBA first basket picks today (November 30, 2025)
| Player | Team | Edge | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaylen Brown | Celtics | 4.7% | +550 | 20.1% |
| Scottie Barnes | Raptors | 1.8% | +850 | 12.3% |
| Nickeil Alexander-Walker | Hawks | 1.6% | +1000 | 10.7% |
| Russell Westbrook | Kings | 1.5% | +1100 | 9.8% |
| Jerami Grant | Trail Blazers | 1.3% | +800 | 12.5% |
| Deni Avdija | Trail Blazers | 1.0% | +550 | 16.3% |
| Onyeka Okongwu | Hawks | 1.0% | +800 | 12.1% |
| Immanuel Quickley | Raptors | 0.3% | +800 | 11.4% |
| Jaylen Wells | Grizzlies | 0.1% | +850 | 10.6% |
Edges represent the difference between model probability and implied odds.
Conclusion: Betting on today's NBA first basket
For Sunday, November 30, 2025, Jaylen Brown, Deni Avdija and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander lead our first basket projections, with Brown shaping as the strongest value play at at +550. All picks and predictions are derived from Dimers’ NBA first basket model.
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Jason Bevilacqua, an expert in MLB, NHL, NBA, MLS, and NFL, delivers game previews, best bets, and props. Since 2020, as Head of Social and Community at Dimers, he has contributed insightful articles utilizing data-driven models and simulations.
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