Get first basket predictions today driven by expert analysis of Sunday's NBA slate.
Our NBA first basket predictions for November 16, 2025, are based on Sunday's latest data and matchups.
Our NBA first basket predictions for Sunday, November 16, 2025, are live—with Stephen Curry of the Warriors the most likely player to score the first basket based on the latest Dimers Pro simulation data.
Sunday's first basket predictions come straight from our NBA first basket odds and player projections, which highlight not only first basket chances, but also projected points, rebounds, assists and more for every player on today's basketball slate.
Who will score the first basket tonight? [November 16, 2025]
According to our data-driven analysis, the most likely NBA player to score the first basket across today's games is Stephen Curry, with a probability of 16.8%.
Player (Team)
FB Probability
Stephen Curry (Warriors)
16.8%
Shaedon Sharpe (Trail Blazers)
16.4%
Lauri Markkanen (Jazz)
15.7%
Devin Booker (Suns)
14.8%
Alex Sarr (Wizards)
14.2%
Jalen Johnson (Hawks)
13.8%
Deni Avdija (Trail Blazers)
13.3%
Kevin Durant (Rockets)
12.8%
Josh Giddey (Bulls)
12.0%
Brandon Williams (Mavericks)
11.8%
Nic Claxton (Nets)
11.8%
Franz Wagner (Magic)
11.6%
Jeremiah Fears (Pelicans)
11.2%
Alperen Sengun (Rockets)
11.1%
Keyonte George (Jazz)
10.9%
Dillon Brooks (Suns)
10.8%
CJ McCollum (Wizards)
10.4%
Tristan da Silva (Magic)
10.4%
Nickeil Alexander-Walker (Hawks)
10.4%
Desmond Bane (Magic)
10.3%
Nikola Vucevic (Bulls)
10.2%
Amen Thompson (Rockets)
10.2%
Will Richard (Warriors)
10.2%
Zaccharie Risacher (Hawks)
10.0%
Daniel Gafford (Mavericks)
9.9%
Following Curry closely are Shaedon Sharpe at 16.4% and Lauri Markkanen at 15.7%.
Devin Booker and Alex Sarr also feature, with the full list of first basket projections for Sunday available via today’s NBA player projections.
Stephen Curry is one of the most likely NBA players to score the first basket on Sunday, November 16, 2025.
Best NBA first basket picks [11/16/2025]
After simulating the result of today's NBA matchups 10K times each, our predictive model has generated the best NBA first basket betting pick for Sunday.
Our model has identified the best NBA first basket bet for today's NBA slate in the game between the Trail Blazers and Mavericks. The bet is on Shaedon Sharpe (POR) at odds of +650 with FanDuel Sportsbook, with an edge of 3.0% according to our analysis.
Dimers' model not only features Sharpe for him 3.0% betting edge but also ranks him among the top three most likely first basket scorers for today, as seen in the preceding list.
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Conclusion
For November 16, 2025, our NBA first basket predictions highlight standout players such as Stephen Curry, Shaedon Sharpe and Lauri Markkanen—all of whom are among the top projected chances to open the scoring in today’s games. But when it comes to betting value, it’s Shaedon Sharpe who emerges as the top play, offering a calculated 3.0% edge at +650 odds.
These projections are built from 10,000 simulations, giving you a reliable starting point for smarter prop betting. Always wager with care—help is available at 1-800-GAMBLER if you or someone close to you needs support.
Jason Bevilacqua, an expert in MLB, NHL, NBA, MLS, and NFL, delivers game previews, best bets, and props. Since 2020, as Head of Social and Community at Dimers, he has contributed insightful articles utilizing data-driven models and simulations.
