Get first basket predictions today guided by expert analysis of Sunday's NBA slate.
Our NBA first basket predictions for October 26, 2025, are based on Sunday's latest data and matchups.
Our NBA first basket predictions for Sunday, October 26, 2025, have landed—with Giannis Antetokounmpo of the Bucks the most likely player to score the first basket according to the latest Dimers Pro simulation data.
Sunday's first basket predictions pull from our proprietary NBA first basket odds and player projections, which highlight not only first basket chances, but also projected points, rebounds, assists and more for every player on today's basketball slate.
Who will score the first basket tonight? [October 26, 2025]
According to our data-driven analysis, the most likely NBA player to score the first basket across all of today's games is Giannis Antetokounmpo, with a probability of 18.2%.
Player (Team)
FB Probability
Giannis Antetokounmpo (Bucks)
18.2%
Luka Doncic (Lakers)
16.4%
Anthony Davis (Mavericks)
16.2%
Donovan Mitchell (Cavaliers)
15.5%
Pascal Siakam (Pacers)
15.2%
Cam Thomas (Nets)
15.2%
Victor Wembanyama (Spurs)
15.2%
Cade Cunningham (Pistons)
15.0%
Anthony Edwards (Timberwolves)
14.7%
Collin Sexton (Hornets)
14.5%
Following Antetokounmpo closely are Luka Doncic at 16.4% and Anthony Davis at 16.2%.
Donovan Mitchell and Pascal Siakam are among those in the top 10, with the full list of first basket projections for Sunday available via today’s NBA player projections.
Anthony Davis is among the top contenders in the NBA to score the first basket on Sunday, October 26, 2025.
Best NBA first basket picks [10/26/2025]
Having simulated the result of today's NBA slate thousands of times, our predictive model has found the best NBA first basket betting pick for Sunday.
Our model has identified the best NBA first basket bet for Sunday's NBA slate in the game between the Celtics and Pistons. The bet is on Neemias Queta (BOS) at odds of +1000 with FanDuel Sportsbook, with an edge of 3.1% according to our analysis.
Although Queta doesn't feature in our model's top 10 most likely first basket scorers for Sunday's NBA slate, he does present the best betting opportunity for those searching for an edge on the market.
For October 26, 2025, our NBA first basket predictions spotlight standout players including Giannis Antetokounmpo, Luka Doncic and Anthony Davis—all of whom are among the top projected chances to open the scoring in today’s games. But when it comes to +EV betting, it’s Neemias Queta who emerges as the top play, producing a calculated 3.1% edge at +1000 odds.
These projections are the result of 10,000 simulations, giving you a reliable starting point for smarter prop betting. Always wager with care—help is available at 1-800-GAMBLER if you or someone close to you needs support.
Jason Bevilacqua, an expert in MLB, NHL, NBA, MLS, and NFL, delivers game previews, best bets, and props. Since 2020, as Head of Social and Community at Dimers, he has contributed insightful articles utilizing data-driven models and simulations.
