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NBA first basket picks and predictions for Sunday, March 8, 2026
Updated: | First published:
Written by Jason Bevilacqua, Head of Content and Communities
Get first basket predictions today backed by expert analysis of NBA slate on 3/8.
Our NBA first basket picks and predictions for today—Sunday, March 8, 2026—are live with the Mavericks' Cooper Flagg projected as the most likely player to score first.
These projections draw on key first basket stats, including player efficiency, shot frequency, and expected starting lineups, forming part of our daily NBA player projections.
Flagg, Pascal Siakam and Tyler Herro lead Sunday’s most likely first basket scorers, while we also highlight tonight's top first basket value picks by comparing real-time odds to model-generated probabilities.
NBA first basket predictions tonight (March 8, 2026)
| Player | Team | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Cooper Flagg | Mavericks | 16.1% |
| Pascal Siakam | Pacers | 15.6% |
| Tyler Herro | Heat | 15.0% |
| Jalen Duren | Pistons | 15.0% |
| Devin Booker | Suns | 13.8% |
| Bam Adebayo | Heat | 13.8% |
| Zion Williamson | Pelicans | 13.8% |
| Kevin Durant | Rockets | 13.7% |
| Kyle Kuzma | Bucks | 13.6% |
| Desmond Bane | Magic | 13.5% |
| Brandon Miller | Hornets | 13.3% |
| Jrue Holiday | Trail Blazers | 13.0% |
| Precious Achiuwa | Kings | 12.9% |
| Victor Wembanyama | Spurs | 12.8% |
| Alex Sarr | Wizards | 12.8% |
NBA first basket picks today (March 8, 2026)
| Player | Team | Edge | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cooper Flagg | Mavericks | 5.0% | +800 | 16.1% |
| Kyle Kuzma | Bucks | 4.5% | +1000 | 13.6% |
| Tre Jones | Bulls | 3.3% | +1100 | 11.6% |
| Jalen Duren | Pistons | 3.3% | +750 | 15.0% |
| Pascal Siakam | Pacers | 2.3% | +650 | 15.6% |
| Jrue Holiday | Trail Blazers | 1.8% | +800 | 13.0% |
| Tyler Herro | Heat | 0.8% | +600 | 15.0% |
| Cade Cunningham | Pistons | 0.2% | +700 | 12.7% |
Edges represent the difference between model probability and implied odds.
For more insights on prop markets and value plays across the league, explore our full list of NBA prop bets for 3/8.
Conclusion: Betting on today's NBA first basket
For Sunday, March 8, 2026, Cooper Flagg, Pascal Siakam and Tyler Herro lead our first basket projections, with Flagg shaping as the strongest value play at +800. All picks and predictions are derived from Dimers’ NBA first basket model.
For guidance on safer wagering habits, explore our Responsible Gambling resources.
Jason Bevilacqua, an expert in MLB, NHL, NBA, MLS, and NFL, delivers game previews, best bets, and props. Since 2020, as Head of Social and Community at Dimers, he has contributed insightful articles utilizing data-driven models and simulations.
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