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NBA first basket picks and predictions for Saturday, December 6, 2025
Updated: | First published:
Written by Nick Slade, Chief Content Officer
Get first basket predictions today guided by expert analysis of NBA slate on 12/6.
Our NBA first basket picks and predictions for today—Saturday, December 6, 2025—are live with the Heat's Norman Powell projected as the most likely player to score first.
Dimers’ first basket projections draw on key first basket stats, including player efficiency, shot frequency, and expected starting lineups, forming part of our daily NBA player projections.
Powell, Donovan Mitchell and Anthony Edwards lead Saturday’s most likely first basket scorers, while we also highlight tonight's top first basket value picks by comparing real-time odds to model-generated probabilities.
NBA first basket predictions tonight (December 6, 2025)
| Player | Team | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Norman Powell | Heat | 16.0% |
| Donovan Mitchell | Cavaliers | 15.2% |
| Anthony Edwards | Timberwolves | 15.0% |
| Kawhi Leonard | Clippers | 14.6% |
| CJ McCollum | Wizards | 14.3% |
| Cade Cunningham | Pistons | 13.8% |
| Kevin Durant | Rockets | 13.6% |
| Alperen Sengun | Rockets | 13.3% |
| Anthony Davis | Mavericks | 13.1% |
| Ryan Rollins | Bucks | 12.6% |
| Bam Adebayo | Heat | 11.9% |
| Zach LaVine | Kings | 11.8% |
| Nickeil Alexander-Walker | Hawks | 11.7% |
| DeMar DeRozan | Kings | 11.4% |
| Jalen Duren | Pistons | 11.3% |
NBA first basket picks today (December 6, 2025)
| Player | Team | Edge | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kawhi Leonard | Clippers | 5.5% | +1000 | 14.6% |
| Nickeil Alexander-Walker | Hawks | 2.2% | +950 | 11.7% |
| Anthony Edwards | Timberwolves | 1.7% | +650 | 15.0% |
| Russell Westbrook | Kings | 1.1% | +1000 | 10.2% |
| DeMar DeRozan | Kings | 0.8% | +850 | 11.4% |
| Brandin Podziemski | Warriors | 0.6% | +850 | 11.1% |
| Kyle Kuzma | Bucks | 0.5% | +900 | 10.5% |
| Tobias Harris | Pistons | 0.4% | +950 | 9.9% |
| James Harden | Clippers | 0.4% | +850 | 10.9% |
| Jaylon Tyson | Cavaliers | 0.4% | +1000 | 9.5% |
| Kevin Durant | Rockets | 0.3% | +650 | 13.7% |
Edges represent the difference between model probability and implied odds.
For more insights on prop markets and value plays across the league, explore our full list of NBA prop bets for 12/6.
Conclusion: Betting on today's NBA first basket
For Saturday, December 6, 2025, Norman Powell, Donovan Mitchell and Anthony Edwards lead our first basket projections, while Kawhi Leonard shapes as the strongest value play at +1000. All picks and predictions are derived from Dimers’ NBA first basket model.
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Nick Slade, with nearly two decades of experience, is the Chief Content Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, overseeing content for Dimers. He specializes in soccer, NBA, and NHL betting, leveraging predictive analytics and machine learning to provide accurate betting insights.
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