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NBA first basket picks and predictions for Saturday, December 6, 2025
Updated: | First published:
Written by Nick Slade, Chief Content Officer
Get first basket predictions today driven by expert analysis of NBA slate on 12/6.
Our NBA first basket picks and predictions for today—Saturday, December 6, 2025—are live with the Rockets' Kevin Durant projected as the most likely player to score first.
Dimers’ first basket projections draw on detailed first basket stats, including player efficiency, shot frequency, and expected starting lineups, forming part of our daily NBA player projections.
Durant, Donovan Mitchell and Anthony Edwards lead Saturday’s most likely first basket scorers, while we also highlight tonight's best first basket value picks by comparing real-time odds to model-generated probabilities.
NBA first basket predictions tonight (December 6, 2025)
| Player | Team | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Kevin Durant | Rockets | 15.8% |
| Donovan Mitchell | Cavaliers | 15.2% |
| Anthony Edwards | Timberwolves | 15.0% |
| CJ McCollum | Wizards | 14.8% |
| Kawhi Leonard | Clippers | 14.6% |
| Norman Powell | Heat | 14.4% |
| Ryan Rollins | Bucks | 14.2% |
| Cade Cunningham | Pistons | 13.8% |
| Anthony Davis | Mavericks | 13.1% |
| Nickeil Alexander-Walker | Hawks | 12.0% |
| Zach LaVine | Kings | 11.8% |
| Jonathan Kuminga | Warriors | 11.4% |
| Amen Thompson | Rockets | 11.4% |
| DeMar DeRozan | Kings | 11.4% |
| Jalen Duren | Pistons | 11.3% |
NBA first basket picks today (December 6, 2025)
| Player | Team | Edge | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kawhi Leonard | Clippers | 5.5% | +1000 | 14.6% |
| Donovan Mitchell | Cavaliers | 1.9% | +650 | 15.2% |
| James Harden | Clippers | 1.4% | +950 | 10.9% |
| Russell Westbrook | Kings | 1.1% | +1000 | 10.2% |
| Tobias Harris | Pistons | 0.8% | +1000 | 9.9% |
| DeMar DeRozan | Kings | 0.3% | +800 | 11.4% |
| Nickeil Alexander-Walker | Hawks | 0.2% | +750 | 12.0% |
Edges represent the difference between model probability and implied odds.
For more insights on prop markets and value plays across the league, explore our full list of NBA prop bets for 12/6.
Conclusion: Betting on today's NBA first basket
For Saturday, December 6, 2025, Kevin Durant, Donovan Mitchell and Anthony Edwards lead our first basket projections, while Kawhi Leonard shapes as the strongest value play at +1000. All picks and predictions are derived from Dimers’ NBA first basket model.
For guidance on safer wagering habits, explore our Responsible Gambling resources.
Nick Slade, with nearly two decades of experience, is the Chief Content Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, overseeing content for Dimers. He specializes in soccer, NBA, and NHL betting, leveraging predictive analytics and machine learning to provide accurate betting insights.
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