Get first basket predictions today driven by expert analysis of Saturday's NBA slate.
Our NBA first basket predictions for November 15, 2025, are based on Saturday's latest data and matchups.
Our NBA first basket predictions for Saturday, November 15, 2025, have landed—with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander of the Thunder the most likely player to score the first basket according to the latest Dimers Pro simulation data.
Saturday's first basket predictions come straight from our NBA first basket odds and player projections, which highlight not only first basket chances, but also projected points, rebounds, assists and more for every player on today's basketball slate.
Who will score the first basket tonight? [November 15, 2025]
According to our data-driven analysis, the most likely NBA player to score the first basket across today's matchups is Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, with a probability of 17.0%.
Player (Team)
FB Probability
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (Thunder)
17.0%
Giannis Antetokounmpo (Bucks)
17.0%
Nikola Jokic (Nuggets)
16.1%
Pascal Siakam (Pacers)
15.2%
Luka Doncic (Lakers)
13.6%
Donovan Mitchell (Cavaliers)
12.9%
Anthony Edwards (Timberwolves)
12.7%
Deandre Ayton (Lakers)
12.6%
Julius Randle (Timberwolves)
12.6%
Miles Bridges (Hornets)
12.3%
Isaiah Jackson (Pacers)
12.0%
Scottie Barnes (Raptors)
12.0%
Isaiah Hartenstein (Thunder)
11.9%
Austin Reaves (Lakers)
11.5%
Chet Holmgren (Thunder)
11.4%
Jarrett Allen (Cavaliers)
11.2%
Jamal Murray (Nuggets)
11.1%
Ryan Rollins (Bucks)
11.1%
Collin Sexton (Hornets)
11.0%
Ja Morant (Grizzlies)
11.0%
Kon Knueppel (Hornets)
11.0%
Brandon Ingram (Raptors)
10.9%
Jaden McDaniels (Timberwolves)
10.4%
RJ Barrett (Raptors)
10.2%
Aaron Gordon (Nuggets)
10.2%
Ryan Kalkbrenner (Hornets)
9.8%
De'Andre Hunter (Cavaliers)
9.8%
Kyle Kuzma (Bucks)
9.6%
Cedric Coward (Grizzlies)
9.3%
Jaylen Wells (Grizzlies)
9.2%
Andrew Nembhard (Pacers)
9.1%
Evan Mobley (Cavaliers)
9.0%
Immanuel Quickley (Raptors)
8.6%
Jakob Poeltl (Raptors)
8.3%
Rudy Gobert (Timberwolves)
7.5%
Myles Turner (Bucks)
7.4%
Following Gilgeous-Alexander closely are Giannis Antetokounmpo at 17.0% and Nikola Jokic at 16.1%.
Pascal Siakam and Luka Doncic also feature, with the full list of first basket projections for Saturday available via today’s NBA player projections.
Giannis Antetokounmpo is among the top contenders in the NBA to score the first basket on Saturday, November 15, 2025.
Best NBA first basket picks [11/15/2025]
Having simulated the outcome of today's NBA matchups 10K times each, our predictive model has found the best NBA first basket bet for you to make on Saturday.
Our model has identified the best NBA first basket bet for Saturday's NBA slate in the game between the Lakers and Bucks. The bet is on Ryan Rollins (MIL) at odds of +1200 with FanDuel Sportsbook, with an edge of 3.4% according to our analysis.
Although Rollins doesn't feature in our model's top 10 most likely first basket scorers for Saturday's NBA slate, he does present the best betting opportunity for those looking to gain an edge on the market.
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Conclusion
For November 15, 2025, our NBA first basket predictions spotlight big-name players such as Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Giannis Antetokounmpo and Nikola Jokic—all of whom are among the top projected chances to open the scoring in today’s games. But when it comes to +EV betting, it’s Ryan Rollins who emerges as the top play, producing a calculated 3.4% edge at +1200 odds.
These projections are built from 10,000 simulations, giving you a reliable base for smarter prop betting. Always wager with care—help is available at 1-800-GAMBLER if you or someone close to you needs support.
Nick Slade, with nearly two decades of experience, is the Chief Content Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, overseeing content for Dimers. He specializes in soccer, NBA, and NHL betting, leveraging predictive analytics and machine learning to provide accurate betting insights.
