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NBA first basket picks and predictions for Friday, December 5, 2025
Updated: | First published:
Written by Damien Souness, Chief Innovation Officer
Get first basket predictions today guided by expert analysis of NBA slate on 12/5.
Our NBA first basket picks and predictions for today—Friday, December 5, 2025—are live with the Cavaliers' Donovan Mitchell projected as the most likely player to score first.
Dimers’ first basket projections draw on detailed first basket stats, including player efficiency, shot frequency, and expected starting lineups, forming part of our daily NBA player projections.
Mitchell, De'Aaron Fox and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander lead Friday’s most likely first basket scorers, while we also highlight tonight's best first basket value picks by comparing real-time odds to model-generated probabilities.
NBA first basket predictions tonight (December 5, 2025)
| Player | Team | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Donovan Mitchell | Cavaliers | 17.0% |
| De'Aaron Fox | Spurs | 16.1% |
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | Thunder | 14.7% |
| Kawhi Leonard | Clippers | 14.4% |
| Tyrese Maxey | 76ers | 14.3% |
| Dillon Brooks | Suns | 14.1% |
| Pascal Siakam | Pacers | 14.1% |
| Jamal Murray | Nuggets | 14.0% |
| Cade Cunningham | Pistons | 13.8% |
| Anthony Davis | Mavericks | 13.8% |
| Nikola Jokic | Nuggets | 13.7% |
| Norman Powell | Heat | 13.7% |
| Alperen Sengun | Rockets | 13.7% |
| Kevin Durant | Rockets | 13.4% |
| Jalen Brunson | Knicks | 13.4% |
NBA first basket picks today (December 5, 2025)
| Player | Team | Edge | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kawhi Leonard | Clippers | 5.3% | +1000 | 14.4% |
| Ryan Rollins | Bucks | 1.8% | +800 | 12.9% |
| James Harden | Clippers | 1.5% | +950 | 11.0% |
| Nickeil Alexander-Walker | Hawks | 1.2% | +850 | 11.7% |
| Dillon Brooks | Suns | 0.8% | +650 | 14.1% |
| Jamal Murray | Nuggets | 0.7% | +650 | 14.0% |
| Jalen Brunson | Knicks | 0.0% | +650 | 13.4% |
Edges represent the difference between model probability and implied odds.
For more insights on prop markets and value plays across the league, explore our full list of NBA prop bets for 12/5.
Conclusion: Betting on today's NBA first basket
For Friday, December 5, 2025, Donovan Mitchell, De'Aaron Fox and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander lead our first basket projections, while Kawhi Leonard shapes as the strongest value play at +1000. All picks and predictions are derived from Dimers’ NBA first basket model.
For guidance on safer wagering habits, explore our Responsible Gambling resources.
Damien Souness leverages over 15 years of experience to create engaging content focused on sports, online gaming and wagering. As Chief Innovation Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, the parent company of Dimers, he offers strategic insights and innovative solutions to enhance the player experience.
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