Canadiens vs. Maple Leafs prediction: Why Toronto is favored to win Saturday's NHL matchup [12/6/2025]

The Toronto Maple Leafs will face the Montreal Canadiens in NHL action at Scotiabank Arena on Saturday, beginning at 7:00PM ET.

Based on the latest simulation results, Dimers' proven NHL model predicts the Maple Leafs as the most likely winner of the Canadiens vs. Maple Leafs game.

This article offers further insights into Saturday's matchup, including projected goal scorers, best bets and player prop picks.

Habs vs. Maple Leafs prediction: Who will win and cover?

Using innovative machine learning and data, we have simulated the result of Saturday's NHL matchup between the Canadiens and Maple Leafs 10,000 times as part of our NHL predictions coverage.

Our leading predictive model gives the Maple Leafs a 57% chance of beating the Canadiens.

According to our model, the Canadiens (+1.5) have a 64% chance of covering the puck line, while the 6.5-goal over/under has a 52% chance of staying under.

Canadiens vs. Maple Leafs odds

We have researched the best NHL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

Bet Type	Canadiens	Maple Leafs
Puck Line	+1.5 (-218)	-1.5 (+180)
Moneyline	+120	-134
Total	o6.5 (-115)	u6.5 (-102)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Canadiens vs. Maple Leafs picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

Bet Type	Pick	Bet Now
Puck Line	Maple Leafs -1.5	+180
Moneyline	Maple Leafs	-134
Total	Under 6.5	-102

According to our best NHL bets, the top play to make on this game is Under 6.5 total goals.

Canadiens vs. Maple Leafs player props

Who will score a goal in Canadiens vs. Maple Leafs?

According to our model, Auston Matthews is most likely to score an anytime goal in Canadiens vs. Maple Leafs.

Our projections give Matthews a 43.4% chance of scoring a goal at Scotiabank Arena, while the star is a 9.1% chance of netting the first goal the game.

Anytime goal scorer predictions

Montreal Canadiens

Player	Anytime Goal Probability
Cole Caufield	35.7%
Nick Suzuki	27.1%
Oliver Kapanen	25.9%
Ivan Demidov	25.2%
Zachary Bolduc	23.2%

Toronto Maple Leafs

Player	Anytime Goal Probability
Auston Matthews	43.4%
John Tavares	39.0%
William Nylander	38.0%
Matthew Knies	28.2%
Bobby McMann	20.6%

First goal scorer predictions

Montreal Canadiens

Player	First Goal Probability
Cole Caufield	6.7%
Nick Suzuki	5.2%
Oliver Kapanen	4.7%
Zachary Bolduc	4.4%
Ivan Demidov	4.3%

Toronto Maple Leafs

Player	First Goal Probability
Auston Matthews	9.1%
John Tavares	7.8%
William Nylander	7.5%
Matthew Knies	5.4%
Bobby McMann	3.6%

Habs vs. Maple Leafs game-day updates and essential details

Saturday's action between the Maple Leafs and Canadiens at Scotiabank Arena is scheduled to begin at 7:00PM ET.

• Who: Montreal Canadiens vs. Toronto Maple Leafs
• Date: Saturday, December 6, 2025
• Time: 7:00PM ET/4:00PM PT
• Venue: Scotiabank Arena

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Conclusion

We predict the Maple Leafs, with a 57% win probability, will likely beat the Canadiens on Saturday.

AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Canadiens vs. Maple Leafs insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are based on up-to-date data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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