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Canadiens vs. Maple Leafs prediction: Why Toronto is favored to win Saturday's NHL matchup [12/6/2025]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Nick Slade, Chief Content Officer
Get Montreal Canadiens vs Toronto Maple Leafs predictions for NHL Saturday.
The Toronto Maple Leafs and Montreal Canadiens are scheduled to meet in the NHL at Scotiabank Arena on Saturday, with puck drop at 7:00PM ET.
Based on updated simulation results, Dimers' proven NHL model predicts the Maple Leafs as the most likely winner of the Canadiens vs. Maple Leafs game.
This article offers a closer look at Saturday's matchup, including projected goal scorers, best bets and player prop picks.
Habs vs. Maple Leafs prediction: Who will win and cover?
Using trusted machine learning and data analysis, we have simulated the result of Saturday's NHL game between the Canadiens and Maple Leafs 10,000 times as part of our NHL predictions coverage.
Our leading predictive model currently gives the Maple Leafs a 57% chance of beating the Canadiens.
According to our model, the Canadiens (+1.5) have a 65% chance of covering the puck line, while the 6.5-goal over/under has a 52% chance of staying under.
Canadiens vs. Maple Leafs odds
We have researched the best NHL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Canadiens | Maple Leafs |
|---|---|---|
| Puck Line | +1.5 (-210) | -1.5 (+180) |
| Moneyline | +115 | -132 |
| Total | o6.5 (-115) | u6.5 (-105) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Canadiens vs. Maple Leafs picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Puck Line | Maple Leafs -1.5 | +180 |
| Moneyline | Maple Leafs | -132 |
| Total | Under 6.5 | -105 |
According to our best NHL bets, the top play to make on this game is Under 6.5 total goals.
Canadiens vs. Maple Leafs player props
Who will score a goal in Canadiens vs. Maple Leafs?
According to our model, Auston Matthews is most likely to score an anytime goal in Canadiens vs. Maple Leafs.
Our projections give Matthews a 43.4% chance of scoring a goal at Scotiabank Arena, while the star is an 8.8% chance of netting the first goal the game.
Anytime goal scorer predictions
Montreal Canadiens
| Player | Anytime Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Cole Caufield | 37.9% |
| Nick Suzuki | 28.6% |
| Ivan Demidov | 25.4% |
| Oliver Kapanen | 24.0% |
| Zachary Bolduc | 23.5% |
Toronto Maple Leafs
| Player | Anytime Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Auston Matthews | 43.4% |
| William Nylander | 37.4% |
| John Tavares | 37.2% |
| Matthew Knies | 30.0% |
| Bobby McMann | 20.6% |
First goal scorer predictions
Montreal Canadiens
| Player | First Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Cole Caufield | 8.1% |
| Nick Suzuki | 5.9% |
| Ivan Demidov | 4.4% |
| Oliver Kapanen | 4.4% |
| Zachary Bolduc | 4.3% |
Toronto Maple Leafs
| Player | First Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Auston Matthews | 8.8% |
| John Tavares | 7.6% |
| William Nylander | 7.0% |
| Matthew Knies | 5.6% |
| Bobby McMann | 3.6% |
Habs vs. Maple Leafs game-day updates and essential details
Saturday's action between the Maple Leafs and Canadiens at Scotiabank Arena is scheduled to start at 7:00PM ET.
- Who: Montreal Canadiens vs. Toronto Maple Leafs
- Date: Saturday, December 6, 2025
- Time: 7:00PM ET/4:00PM PT
- Venue: Scotiabank Arena
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Conclusion
We predict the Maple Leafs, with a 57% win probability, will likely beat the Canadiens on Saturday.
AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Canadiens vs. Maple Leafs insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are based on the latest data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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Nick Slade, with nearly two decades of experience, is the Chief Content Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, overseeing content for Dimers. He specializes in soccer, NBA, and NHL betting, leveraging predictive analytics and machine learning to provide accurate betting insights.
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