Canadiens vs. Lightning prediction: Why Tampa Bay is favored to win Sunday's NHL matchup [12/28/2025]

The Tampa Bay Lightning and Montreal Canadiens will lock horns in the NHL at Benchmark International Arena on Sunday, with puck drop at 5:00 PM ET.

Based on the latest simulation results, Dimers' proven NHL model predicts the Lightning as the most likely winner of the Canadiens vs. Lightning game.

This article offers a closer look at Sunday's matchup, including projected goal scorers, best bets and player prop picks.

Habs vs. Lightning prediction: Who will win and cover?

Using innovative machine learning and data, we have simulated the outcome of Sunday's NHL game between the Canadiens and Lightning 10,000 times as part of our NHL predictions coverage.

Our famous predictive model gives the Lightning a 58% chance of defeating the Canadiens.

According to our model, the Canadiens (+1.5) have a 63% chance of covering the puck line, while the over/under total of 6.5 goals has a 53% chance of staying under.

Canadiens vs. Lightning odds

We have sourced the best NHL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

Bet Type	Canadiens	Lightning
Puck Line	+1.5 (-198)	-1.5 (+180)
Moneyline	+124	-134
Total	o6.5 (+104)	u6.5 (-120)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Canadiens vs. Lightning picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

Bet Type	Pick	Bet Now
Puck Line	Lightning -1.5	+180
Moneyline	Lightning	-134
Total	Under 6.5	-120

According to our NHL best bets, the top play to make on this game is Lightning to win.

Canadiens vs. Lightning player props

Who will score a goal in Canadiens vs. Lightning?

According to our model, Jake Guentzel is most likely to score an anytime goal in Canadiens vs. Lightning.

Our projections give Guentzel a 42.9% chance of scoring a goal at Benchmark International Arena, while the star is a 9.1% chance of netting the first goal the game.

Anytime goal scorer predictions

Montreal Canadiens

Player	Anytime Goal Probability
Cole Caufield	31.7%
Nick Suzuki	29.1%
Ivan Demidov	27.2%
Oliver Kapanen	23.2%
Zachary Bolduc	22.5%

Tampa Bay Lightning

Player	Anytime Goal Probability
Jake Guentzel	42.9%
Brayden Point	37.8%
Nikita Kucherov	32.2%
Brandon Hagel	30.9%
Oliver Bjorkstrand	23.0%

First goal scorer predictions

Montreal Canadiens

Player	First Goal Probability
Cole Caufield	6.0%
Nick Suzuki	5.4%
Ivan Demidov	5.3%
Oliver Kapanen	4.1%
Zachary Bolduc	3.7%

Tampa Bay Lightning

Player	First Goal Probability
Jake Guentzel	9.1%
Brayden Point	7.5%
Nikita Kucherov	6.0%
Brandon Hagel	5.7%
Oliver Bjorkstrand	4.1%

Habs vs. Lightning game-day updates and essential details

Sunday's action between the Lightning and Canadiens at Benchmark International Arena is scheduled to begin at 5:00 PM ET.

• Who: Montreal Canadiens vs. Tampa Bay Lightning
• Date: Sunday, December 28, 2025
• Time: 5:00 PM ET/2:00PM PT
• Venue: Benchmark International Arena

Conclusion

We predict the Lightning, with a 58% win probability, will likely beat the Canadiens on Sunday.

AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Canadiens vs. Lightning insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are based on up-to-date data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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