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Canadiens vs. Lightning prediction: Why Tampa Bay is favored to win Sunday's NHL matchup [12/28/2025]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Nick Slade, Chief Content Officer
Get Montreal Canadiens vs Tampa Bay Lightning predictions for NHL Sunday.
The Tampa Bay Lightning will face the Montreal Canadiens in NHL action at Benchmark International Arena on Sunday, starting at 5:00 PM ET.
Based on the latest simulation results, Dimers' proven NHL model predicts the Lightning as the most likely winner of the Canadiens vs. Lightning game.
This article offers an expanded analysis of Sunday's matchup, including projected goal scorers, best bets and player prop picks.
Habs vs. Lightning prediction: Who will win and cover?
Using trusted machine learning and data, we have simulated the result of Sunday's NHL matchup between the Canadiens and Lightning 10,000 times as part of our NHL predictions coverage.
Our leading predictive model currently gives the Lightning a 59% chance of beating the Canadiens.
According to our model, the Canadiens (+1.5) have a 63% chance of covering the puck line, while the 6-goal over/under has a 51% chance of going over.
Canadiens vs. Lightning odds
We have sourced the best NHL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Canadiens | Lightning |
|---|---|---|
| Puck Line | +1.5 (-180) | -1.5 (+160) |
| Moneyline | +130 | -150 |
| Total | o6 (-130) | u6 (+100) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Canadiens vs. Lightning picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Puck Line | Canadiens +1.5 | -180 |
| Moneyline | Lightning | -150 |
| Total | Under 6 | +100 |
According to our NHL best bets, the top play to make on this game is Under 6 total goals.
Canadiens vs. Lightning player props
Who will score a goal in Canadiens vs. Lightning?
According to our model, Jake Guentzel is most likely to score an anytime goal in Canadiens vs. Lightning.
Our projections give Guentzel a 47.2% chance of scoring a goal at Benchmark International Arena, while the star is a 10.0% chance of netting the first goal the game.
Anytime goal scorer predictions
Montreal Canadiens
| Player | Anytime Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Cole Caufield | 31.5% |
| Nick Suzuki | 29.1% |
| Ivan Demidov | 26.1% |
| Oliver Kapanen | 23.6% |
| Zachary Bolduc | 23.3% |
Tampa Bay Lightning
| Player | Anytime Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Jake Guentzel | 47.2% |
| Brayden Point | 40.9% |
| Nikita Kucherov | 35.2% |
| Oliver Bjorkstrand | 25.8% |
| Anthony Cirelli | 24.6% |
First goal scorer predictions
Montreal Canadiens
| Player | First Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Cole Caufield | 6.0% |
| Nick Suzuki | 5.5% |
| Zachary Bolduc | 4.6% |
| Oliver Kapanen | 4.4% |
| Ivan Demidov | 4.3% |
Tampa Bay Lightning
| Player | First Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Jake Guentzel | 10.0% |
| Brayden Point | 8.3% |
| Nikita Kucherov | 6.9% |
| Oliver Bjorkstrand | 4.8% |
| Anthony Cirelli | 4.8% |
Habs vs. Lightning game-day updates and essential details
Sunday's action between the Lightning and Canadiens at Benchmark International Arena is scheduled to commence at 5:00 PM ET.
- Who: Montreal Canadiens vs. Tampa Bay Lightning
- Date: Sunday, December 28, 2025
- Time: 5:00 PM ET/2:00PM PT
- Venue: Benchmark International Arena
Conclusion
We predict the Lightning, with a 59% win probability, will likely beat the Canadiens on Sunday.
AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Canadiens vs. Lightning insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are sourced from the latest data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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Nick Slade, with nearly two decades of experience, is the Chief Content Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, overseeing content for Dimers. He specializes in soccer, NBA, and NHL betting, leveraging predictive analytics and machine learning to provide accurate betting insights.
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