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Canadiens vs. Lightning Prediction, Picks and Odds
Our detailed prediction and analysis for the Canadiens vs. Lightning NHL game on December 28, 2025 is featured below. Drawing from 10,000 game simulations, we provide expert picks, betting odds, and insights.
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FINAL
NHL
FINAL
NHL
4
5
Dec 28, 10PM Benchmark International Arena
Dec 28, 10PM Benchmark International Arena
In-Play ProbabilitiesIn-Play
Game PredictionsPre-Game
Best Bets | TEAM | 1 | 2 | 3 | OT | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Canadiens | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 4 |
Lightning | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 5 |
Live Probabilities
Moneyline
Over / Under
Win %
0%
100%
Win Probability
| TEAM | 1 | 2 | 3 | OT | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Canadiens | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 4 |
Lightning | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 5 |
OT1 04:04 Shot missed by Anthony Cirelli
OT1 03:45 Shot missed by Cole Caufield
OT1 03:38 Shot missed by Cole Caufield
OT1 02:55 Shot on goal by Cole Caufield saved by Jonas Johansson
OT1 02:00 Shot on goal by Nikita Kucherov saved by Jacob Fowler
OT1 01:12 Shot on goal by Juraj Slafkovský saved by Jonas Johansson
P3 19:54 Shot missed by Juraj Slafkovský
P3 19:52 Lane Hutson shot blocked by Anthony Cirelli
P3 19:25 Noah Dobson shot blocked by Brandon Hagel
P3 19:11 Shot missed by Nikita Kucherov
P3 19:04 Shot missed by Nikita Kucherov
P3 18:43 Shot on goal by Ivan Demidov saved by Jonas Johansson
P3 18:05 Shot missed by Pontus Holmberg
P3 17:19 Shot missed by Nick Paul
P3 16:27 Juraj Slafkovský shot blocked by Anthony Cirelli
P3 16:21 Shot missed by Mike Matheson
P3 16:12 Shot missed by Oliver Kapanen
P3 14:35 Shot on goal by Noah Dobson saved by Jonas Johansson
P3 13:31 Shot missed by Phillip Danault
P3 13:20 Shot on goal by Lane Hutson saved by Jonas Johansson
Play by Play
P1
P2
P3
OT
GOALS
ALL
Shootout attempt by Cole Caufield saved by Jonas Johansson
End of Shootout period.
Shootout Goal scored by Brayden Point on Jacob Fowler
Shootout attempt missed by Ivan Demidov
Shootout Goal scored by Gage Goncalves on Jacob Fowler
End of 1st OT.
SHOT
Shot missed by Anthony Cirelli
SHOT
Shot missed by Cole Caufield
SHOT
Shot missed by Cole Caufield
Nick Suzuki won faceoff against Brayden Point in offensive zone
Stoppage - Icing
SHOT
Shot on goal by Cole Caufield saved by Jonas Johansson
SHOT
Shot on goal by Nikita Kucherov saved by Jacob Fowler
SHOT
Shot on goal by Juraj Slafkovský saved by Jonas Johansson
Phillip Danault won faceoff against Nick Paul in neutral zone
End of 3rd Period.
Yanni Gourde won faceoff against Josh Anderson in neutral zone
SHOT
Shot missed by Juraj Slafkovský
SHOT
Lane Hutson shot blocked by Anthony Cirelli
Phillip Danault won faceoff against Anthony Cirelli in offensive zone
Stoppage - Icing
SHOT
Noah Dobson shot blocked by Brandon Hagel
SHOT
Shot missed by Nikita Kucherov
SHOT
Shot missed by Nikita Kucherov
Nick Suzuki won faceoff against Anthony Cirelli in offensive zone
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
SHOT
Shot on goal by Ivan Demidov saved by Jonas Johansson
Nick Suzuki won faceoff against Yanni Gourde in offensive zone
Stoppage
SHOT
Shot missed by Pontus Holmberg
Josh Anderson credited with hit on J.J. Moser in offensive zone
Brendan Gallagher credited with hit on J.J. Moser in offensive zone
SHOT
Shot missed by Nick Paul
SHOT
Juraj Slafkovský shot blocked by Anthony Cirelli
SHOT
Shot missed by Mike Matheson
Anthony Cirelli won faceoff against Oliver Kapanen in defensive zone
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
SHOT
Shot missed by Oliver Kapanen
Giveaway by Cole Caufield in offensive zone
Giveaway by Cole Caufield in offensive zone
Cole Caufield won faceoff against Yanni Gourde in offensive zone
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG) - TV timeout
Giveaway by Maxim Groshev in defensive zone
SHOT
Shot on goal by Noah Dobson saved by Jonas Johansson
Giveaway by Jake Guentzel in defensive zone
SHOT
Shot missed by Phillip Danault
Declan Carlile credited with hit on Ivan Demidov in defensive zone
SHOT
Shot on goal by Lane Hutson saved by Jonas Johansson
Brayden Point won faceoff against Oliver Kapanen in neutral zone
SHOT
Noah Dobson shot blocked by teammate
SHOT
Shot on goal by Lane Hutson saved by Jonas Johansson
SHOT
Mike Matheson shot blocked by Gage Goncalves
Phillip Danault won faceoff against Nick Paul in defensive zone
SHOT
Shot on goal by Nikita Kucherov saved by Jacob Fowler
SHOT
Shot missed by Lane Hutson
SHOT
Lane Hutson shot blocked by Max Crozier
SHOT
Phillip Danault shot blocked by Declan Carlile
SHOT
Lane Hutson shot blocked by Declan Carlile
SHOT
Shot missed by Zachary Bolduc
Phillip Danault won faceoff against Nick Paul in neutral zone
SHOT
Shot missed by Juraj Slafkovský
SHOT
Shot on goal by Oliver Kapanen saved by Jonas Johansson
Brayden Point won faceoff against Oliver Kapanen in offensive zone
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
SHOT
Shot on goal by Yanni Gourde saved by Jacob Fowler
Nick Suzuki won faceoff against Zemgus Girgensons in defensive zone
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
SHOT
Brandon Hagel shot blocked by Cole Caufield
SHOT
Cole Caufield shot blocked by J.J. Moser
SHOT
Charle-Edouard D'Astous shot blocked by Samuel Blais
Takeaway by Noah Dobson in defensive zone
SHOT
Shot on goal by Charle-Edouard D'Astous saved by Jacob Fowler
SHOT
Shot on goal by Maxim Groshev saved by Jacob Fowler
Joseph Veleno won faceoff against Nick Paul in defensive zone
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG) - TV timeout
SHOT
Shot on goal by Charle-Edouard D'Astous saved by Jacob Fowler
SHOT
Shot missed by Alexandre Carrier
Jake Guentzel won faceoff against Phillip Danault in offensive zone
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
SHOT
Declan Carlile shot blocked by Oliver Kapanen
SHOT
Yanni Gourde shot blocked by Lane Hutson
Yanni Gourde won faceoff against Nick Suzuki in defensive zone
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
SHOT
Shot on goal by Oliver Kapanen saved by Jonas Johansson
Oliver Kapanen won faceoff against Brayden Point in offensive zone
Stoppage - Puck in Netting
SHOT
Brendan Gallagher shot blocked by Maxim Groshev
SHOT
Shot missed by Arber Xhekaj
Joseph Veleno won faceoff against Anthony Cirelli in offensive zone
Stoppage - Puck in Benches
SHOT
Noah Dobson shot blocked by Max Crozier
Brayden Point won faceoff against Josh Anderson in neutral zone
Stoppage - Offside
Phillip Danault won faceoff against Brayden Point in neutral zone
SHOT
Oliver Bjorkstrand shot blocked by Alexandre Carrier
Nick Paul won faceoff against Nick Suzuki in defensive zone
Stoppage - Icing
Nick Paul won faceoff against Phillip Danault in neutral zone
SHOT
Shot missed by Ivan Demidov
SHOT
Shot missed by Juraj Slafkovský
SHOT
Shot on goal by Oliver Kapanen saved by Jonas Johansson
SHOT
Shot missed by Noah Dobson
Oliver Kapanen won faceoff against Anthony Cirelli in offensive zone
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
Nick Suzuki won faceoff against Yanni Gourde in neutral zone
End of 2nd Period.
SHOT
Noah Dobson shot blocked by teammate
Nick Paul won faceoff against Oliver Kapanen in defensive zone
Stoppage - Icing
SHOT
Shot missed by Brayden Point
SHOT
Shot on goal by Samuel Blais saved by Jonas Johansson
Joseph Veleno credited with hit on Darren Raddysh in offensive zone
SHOT
Shot on goal by Zemgus Girgensons saved by Jacob Fowler
Zachary Bolduc credited with hit on Darren Raddysh in offensive zone
Zachary Bolduc credited with hit on J.J. Moser in offensive zone
SHOT
J.J. Moser shot blocked by Zachary Bolduc
Yanni Gourde won faceoff against Nick Suzuki in defensive zone
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
SHOT
Max Crozier shot blocked by Lane Hutson
Max Crozier credited with hit on Oliver Kapanen in defensive zone
Oliver Kapanen won faceoff against Anthony Cirelli in offensive zone
Stoppage
Phillip Danault won faceoff against Nick Paul in neutral zone
GOAL
Goal scored by Nick Paul assisted by Oliver Bjorkstrand and Maxim Groshev
0-3
SHOT
Shot on goal by Oliver Bjorkstrand saved by Jacob Fowler
SHOT
Shot on goal by Brandon Hagel saved by Jacob Fowler
SHOT
Power play - Noah Dobson shot blocked by Declan Carlile
SHOT
Power play - Shot on goal by Noah Dobson saved by Jonas Johansson
SHOT
Power play - Brendan Gallagher shot blocked by Max Crozier
SHOT
Power play - Shot missed by Oliver Kapanen
Power play - Nick Suzuki won faceoff against Anthony Cirelli in offensive zone
Phillip Danault won faceoff against Brayden Point in neutral zone
SHOT
Shot missed by Nikita Kucherov
SHOT
Shot on goal by Gage Goncalves saved by Jacob Fowler
SHOT
Shot missed by Juraj Slafkovský
Giveaway by Max Crozier in defensive zone
Jayden Struble credited with hit on Anthony Cirelli in defensive zone
Arber Xhekaj credited with hit on Declan Carlile in defensive zone
Oliver Kapanen won faceoff against Jake Guentzel in offensive zone
Stoppage - Puck in Netting - TV timeout
SHOT
Shot missed by Ivan Demidov
Nick Suzuki credited with hit on Maxim Groshev in defensive zone
Anthony Cirelli won faceoff against Nick Suzuki in defensive zone
Stoppage - Icing
SHOT
Mike Matheson shot blocked by teammate
Phillip Danault won faceoff against Nick Paul in offensive zone
Stoppage - Icing
SHOT
Shot on goal by Alexandre Texier saved by Jonas Johansson
SHOT
Shot on goal by Brendan Gallagher saved by Jonas Johansson
Joseph Veleno won faceoff against Nick Paul in offensive zone
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG) - TV timeout
SHOT
Oliver Kapanen shot blocked by teammate
SHOT
Shot missed by Ivan Demidov
Takeaway by Zachary Bolduc in defensive zone
SHOT
Shot missed by Brandon Hagel
SHOT
Shot on goal by Anthony Cirelli saved by Jacob Fowler
SHOT
Shot on goal by Max Crozier saved by Jacob Fowler
Giveaway by Arber Xhekaj in defensive zone
Pontus Holmberg credited with hit on Mike Matheson in offensive zone
SHOT
Shot missed by J.J. Moser
J.J. Moser credited with hit on Noah Dobson in defensive zone
Power play - Yanni Gourde won faceoff against Joseph Veleno in offensive zone
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
SHOT
Power play - Shot on goal by Gage Goncalves saved by Jacob Fowler
Power play - Giveaway by Brandon Hagel in neutral zone
SHOT
Power play - Nikita Kucherov shot blocked by teammate
SHOT
Power play - Nikita Kucherov shot blocked by Oliver Kapanen
SHOT
Power play - Jake Guentzel shot blocked by Alexandre Carrier
Shorthanded - Phillip Danault won faceoff against Jake Guentzel in defensive zone
Penalty to Alexandre Texier 2 minutes for Hooking (Drawn by Declan Carlile)
Giveaway by Jayden Struble in defensive zone
Phillip Danault won faceoff against Nick Paul in neutral zone
Stoppage - Offside
SHOT
Charle-Edouard D'Astous shot blocked by Lane Hutson
SHOT
Shot missed by Anthony Cirelli
SHOT
Brandon Hagel shot blocked by Alexandre Carrier
Anthony Cirelli won faceoff against Joseph Veleno in neutral zone
GOAL
Goal scored by Nikita Kucherov
0-1
SHOT
Shot missed by Ivan Demidov
SHOT
Shot on goal by Mike Matheson saved by Jonas Johansson
SHOT
Shot on goal by Gage Goncalves saved by Jacob Fowler
Giveaway by J.J. Moser in offensive zone
SHOT
Shot missed by Yanni Gourde
SHOT
J.J. Moser shot blocked by Alexandre Carrier
SHOT
Shot missed by Yanni Gourde
Nick Suzuki won faceoff against Lightning in offensive zone
Nick Paul won faceoff against Nick Suzuki in defensive zone
Nick Suzuki won faceoff against Nick Paul in offensive zone
Stoppage - Icing
Shorthanded - Nick Paul won faceoff against Phillip Danault in neutral zone
End of 1st Period.
Shorthanded - Brandon Hagel won faceoff against Phillip Danault in offensive zone
Stoppage - Puck in Netting
SHOT
Shorthanded - Jake Guentzel shot blocked by Noah Dobson
Shorthanded - Jake Guentzel won faceoff against Oliver Kapanen in offensive zone
Stoppage - Puck in Netting
SHOT
Shorthanded - Shot missed by Yanni Gourde
SHOT
Power play - Brendan Gallagher shot blocked by teammate
SHOT
Shorthanded - Shot on goal by Anthony Cirelli saved by Jacob Fowler
Power play - Giveaway by Nick Suzuki in offensive zone
Power play - Nick Suzuki won faceoff against Anthony Cirelli in offensive zone
Penalty to Charle-Edouard D'Astous 2 minutes for Holding (Drawn by Phillip Danault)
SHOT
Alexandre Texier shot blocked by Declan Carlile
SHOT
Shot on goal by Joseph Veleno saved by Jonas Johansson
Joseph Veleno credited with hit on Maxim Groshev in offensive zone
Gage Goncalves won faceoff against Joseph Veleno in defensive zone
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
SHOT
Shot on goal by Lane Hutson saved by Jonas Johansson
Joseph Veleno won faceoff against Brayden Point in offensive zone
Penalty to Scott Sabourin 5 minutes for Fighting (Drawn by Arber Xhekaj)
SHOT
Nick Suzuki shot blocked by Zemgus Girgensons
Giveaway by Phillip Danault in offensive zone
Charle-Edouard D'Astous credited with hit on Samuel Blais in defensive zone
SHOT
Shot on goal by Josh Anderson saved by Jonas Johansson
Zachary Bolduc credited with hit on Maxim Groshev in offensive zone
SHOT
Shot on goal by Zachary Bolduc saved by Jonas Johansson
Power play - Takeaway by Noah Dobson in defensive zone
Shorthanded - Anthony Cirelli won faceoff against Nick Suzuki in defensive zone
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
SHOT
Power play - Shot on goal by Juraj Slafkovský saved by Jonas Johansson
SHOT
Power play - Shot on goal by Cole Caufield saved by Jonas Johansson
Power play - Nick Suzuki won faceoff against Anthony Cirelli in offensive zone
Penalty to Nick Paul 2 minutes for Delay of Game
SHOT
Shot missed by Arber Xhekaj
SHOT
Joseph Veleno shot blocked by Max Crozier
Takeaway by Cole Caufield in offensive zone
Oliver Kapanen won faceoff against Brayden Point in offensive zone
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
SHOT
Mike Matheson shot blocked by Max Crozier
SHOT
Shot on goal by Phillip Danault saved by Jonas Johansson
Phillip Danault won faceoff against Scott Sabourin in defensive zone
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
SHOT
Shot on goal by Zemgus Girgensons saved by Jacob Fowler
SHOT
Shot on goal by Pontus Holmberg saved by Jacob Fowler
SHOT
Shot missed by Yanni Gourde
Giveaway by Jayden Struble in defensive zone
SHOT
Shot missed by Canadiens
SHOT
Brayden Point shot blocked by Noah Dobson
Jake Guentzel won faceoff against Oliver Kapanen in defensive zone
Stoppage - Puck Frozen - TV timeout
SHOT
Shot missed by Alexandre Carrier
Phillip Danault won faceoff against Anthony Cirelli in offensive zone
Stoppage - Icing
SHOT
Power play - Mike Matheson shot blocked by teammate
Power play - Takeaway by Noah Dobson in offensive zone
Power play - Zachary Bolduc credited with hit on Zemgus Girgensons in offensive zone
Shorthanded - Yanni Gourde won faceoff against Oliver Kapanen in defensive zone
Stoppage - Puck in Benches
Power play - Nick Suzuki won faceoff against Yanni Gourde in offensive zone
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
SHOT
Power play - Ivan Demidov shot blocked by teammate
SHOT
Power play - Shot missed by Ivan Demidov
Power play - Nick Suzuki won faceoff against Anthony Cirelli in offensive zone
Penalty to Max Crozier 2 minutes for Misconduct (Drawn by Josh Anderson)
SHOT
Shot on goal by Josh Anderson saved by Jonas Johansson
Brayden Point won faceoff against Phillip Danault in neutral zone
Stoppage - Offside
Scott Sabourin credited with hit on Jayden Struble in offensive zone
Giveaway by Charle-Edouard D'Astous in defensive zone
Nick Paul won faceoff against Joseph Veleno in defensive zone
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
SHOT
Shot missed by Ivan Demidov
SHOT
Nikita Kucherov shot blocked by Noah Dobson
Brayden Point won faceoff against Oliver Kapanen in offensive zone
Stoppage - Icing
Oliver Kapanen won faceoff against Nick Paul in offensive zone
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
SHOT
Shot on goal by Juraj Slafkovský saved by Jonas Johansson
Nick Suzuki credited with hit on Darren Raddysh in offensive zone
Takeaway by Anthony Cirelli in defensive zone
SHOT
Alexandre Texier shot blocked by teammate
Phillip Danault credited with hit on Jake Guentzel in offensive zone
SHOT
Shot on goal by Noah Dobson saved by Jonas Johansson
Josh Anderson credited with hit on Max Crozier in offensive zone
Phillip Danault credited with hit on Jake Guentzel in offensive zone
Anthony Cirelli won faceoff against Phillip Danault in neutral zone
Game Setup.
Stats
| STATS | |
|---|
| 36 | Shots on Goal | 22 | |||
| 63% | Faceoff Win % | 37% | |||
| 4/0 | PP Opportunities/PP Goals | 1/0 | |||
| 7 | Penalty Infraction Mins | 13 | |||
| 26 | Hits | 17 | |||
| 11 | Shots Blocked | 23 | |||
| 13 | Giveaways | 18 |
| |
|---|
| 36 | Shots on Goal | 22 | |||
| 63% | Faceoff Win % | 37% | |||
| 4/0 | PP Opportunities/PP Goals | 1/0 | |||
| 7 | Penalty Infraction Mins | 13 | |||
| 26 | Hits | 17 | |||
| 11 | Shots Blocked | 23 | |||
| 13 | Giveaways | 18 |
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Canadiens vs. Lightning: Detailed Breakdown
Matchup Overview
- Teams: Canadiens vs. Lightning
- Date: Sunday, December 28, 2025
- Time: 5:00 PM ET
- Venue: Benchmark International Arena
Current Betting Odds
- Spread: Lightning favored at -1.5
- Total (Over/Under): 6.5
- Moneyline Odds: Canadiens +124, Lightning -134
Dimers' Win Probabilities
- Canadiens: 42%
- Lightning: 58%
Dimers' predictive model, renowned for its accuracy, assesses each team's chances by simulating the outcome of the game 10,000 times. This method provides a precise and unbiased view.
Our Prediction: Who Wins?
After extensive simulations, our model gives the Canadiens a win probability of 42%, while the Lightning have a win probability of 58%. Discover the best spread, over/under, and moneyline odds for the game on this page.
Summary
According to our analysis, the Lightning are more likely to beat the Canadiens in the NHL game at Benchmark International Arena on Sunday. Discover the best spread, over/under and moneyline odds, picks and probabilities for the game on this page.
Our Canadiens vs. Lightning predictions, based on sophisticated simulations and current data, guide you in making informed decisions. Remember to bet responsibly and within your financial limits.
For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.
When you click or tap on a link on Dimers that goes to a third-party website that we have a commercial relationship with (such as a sportsbook), we may receive a referral fee.
For further insights, explore our expert NHL predictions and the best NHL bets today, while our in-depth analysis includes NHL props, NHL futures, NHL odds, and the latest NHL news.
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