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Canadiens vs. Stars prediction: Dallas favored to win Sunday's NHL matchup [1/4/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Jason Bevilacqua, Head of Content and Communities
Get Montreal Canadiens vs Dallas Stars predictions for NHL Sunday.
The Dallas Stars and Montreal Canadiens will lock horns in the NHL at American Airlines Center on Sunday, with puck drop at 2:00 PM ET.
Based on updated simulations, Dimers' advanced NHL model predicts the Stars as the most likely winner of the Canadiens vs. Stars game.
This article offers an expanded analysis of Sunday's matchup, including projected goal scorers, best bets and player prop picks.
Habs vs. Stars prediction: Who will win and cover?
Using powerful machine learning and data, we have simulated the outcome of Sunday's NHL game between the Canadiens and Stars 10,000 times as part of our NHL predictions coverage.
Our leading predictive model currently gives the Stars a 61% chance of defeating the Canadiens.
According to our model, the Canadiens (+1.5) have a 59% chance of covering the puck line, while the over/under total of 6.5 goals has a 55% chance of staying under.
Canadiens vs. Stars odds
We have researched the best NHL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Canadiens | Stars |
|---|---|---|
| Puck Line | +1.5 (-152) | -1.5 (+130) |
| Moneyline | +162 | -185 |
| Total | o6.5 (+102) | u6.5 (-122) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Canadiens vs. Stars picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Puck Line | Canadiens +1.5 | -152 |
| Moneyline | Canadiens | +162 |
| Total | Under 6.5 | -122 |
According to our NHL best bets, the top play to make on this game is Canadiens to win.
Canadiens vs. Stars player props
Who will score a goal in Canadiens vs. Stars?
According to our model, Jason Robertson is most likely to score an anytime goal in Canadiens vs. Stars.
Our projections give Robertson a 43.7% chance of scoring a goal at American Airlines Center, while the star is a 9.5% chance of netting the first goal the game.
Anytime goal scorer predictions
Montreal Canadiens
| Player | Anytime Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Cole Caufield | 34.2% |
| Nick Suzuki | 27.5% |
| Oliver Kapanen | 24.0% |
| Ivan Demidov | 23.6% |
| Juraj Slafkovsky | 21.5% |
Dallas Stars
| Player | Anytime Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Jason Robertson | 43.7% |
| Mikko Rantanen | 35.3% |
| Wyatt Johnston | 34.5% |
| Roope Hintz | 33.5% |
| Matt Duchene | 23.0% |
First goal scorer predictions
Montreal Canadiens
| Player | First Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Cole Caufield | 6.6% |
| Nick Suzuki | 5.2% |
| Ivan Demidov | 4.0% |
| Juraj Slafkovsky | 3.9% |
| Oliver Kapanen | 3.8% |
Dallas Stars
| Player | First Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Jason Robertson | 9.5% |
| Mikko Rantanen | 7.0% |
| Roope Hintz | 6.6% |
| Wyatt Johnston | 6.5% |
| Matt Duchene | 4.0% |
Habs vs. Stars game-day updates and essential details
Sunday's game between the Stars and Canadiens at American Airlines Center is scheduled to start at 2:00 PM ET.
- Who: Montreal Canadiens vs. Dallas Stars
- Date: Sunday, January 4, 2026
- Time: 2:00 PM ET/11:00AM PT
- Venue: American Airlines Center
Conclusion
We predict the Stars, with a 61% win probability, will likely beat the Canadiens on Sunday.
AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Canadiens vs. Stars insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are based on up-to-date data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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Jason Bevilacqua, an expert in MLB, NHL, NBA, MLS, and NFL, delivers game previews, best bets, and props. Since 2020, as Head of Social and Community at Dimers, he has contributed insightful articles utilizing data-driven models and simulations.
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