Home run predictions for Saturday include Aaron Judge, Shohei Ohtani [8/16/2025]

Our MLB home run predictions for Saturday, August 16, 2025, are in—with Aaron Judge topping the list per the latest Dimers Pro simulation data.

Saturday's HR projections come from our home run predictions, which simulate every MLB matchup 10,000 times to reveal the top home run bets today.

Home run predictions for August 16, 2025

Player (Team)	HR Projection
Aaron Judge (Yankees)	24.8%
Kyle Schwarber (Phillies)	23.2%
Shohei Ohtani (Dodgers)	22.4%
Giancarlo Stanton (Yankees)	🔒
Cal Raleigh (Mariners)	🔒
Nick Kurtz (Athletics)	🔒
Pete Alonso (Mets)	🔒
Junior Caminero (Rays)	🔒
Shea Langeliers (Athletics)	🔒
Juan Soto (Mets)	🔒

Our analysis shows Judge leads today's MLB home run predictions with a 24.8% chance to go deep, followed by Kyle Schwarber (23.2%) and Shohei Ohtani (22.4%).

Giancarlo Stanton and Cal Raleigh are among several other sluggers to rank inside the top 10. Want the full list of home run props today—including every player's HR probability for Saturday? Join Dimers Pro now.

Already a Dimers Pro member? Check out today's HR and hitter projections and sort by “To Hit HR” to see every player’s probability of going deep.

Saturday's home run picks [8/16/2025]

After running 10,000 simulations per matchup and evaluating key variables like weather and pitching matchups, Dimers Pro has identified one of the best MLB home run props today.

Nolan Gorman (Cardinals) to hit a home run

• Probability: 16%
• Odds: +850
• Edge: 5.5%
• Game: Yankees vs. Cardinals (7:15PM ET)
• Pitching matchup: Max Fried

Despite not cracking the top 10 in today's home run predictions, St. Louis slugger Nolan Gorman offers standout value at +850 with Bet365, showing an edge of 5.5%—making him one of the strongest home run bets today.

With Max Fried on the mound for the Yankees, this combination of betting value and power potential makes Gorman one of the best home run picks today on Saturday's slate.

For more expert MLB picks and data-led MLB predictions, join Dimers Pro now. Pro users get full access to a total of 68 home run predictions today, plus hit and RBI projections, pitcher props, and more—perfect for building smarter MLB parlays and round robins.

MLB schedule for today [Saturday, August 16, 2025]

• Rangers vs. Blue Jays (3:07PM ET, Saturday)
• Mariners vs. Mets (4:10PM ET, Saturday)
• Marlins vs. Red Sox (4:10PM ET, Saturday)
• White Sox vs. Royals (7:10PM ET, Saturday)
• Orioles vs. Astros (7:10PM ET, Saturday)
• Braves vs. Guardians (7:10PM ET, Saturday)
• Yankees vs. Cardinals (7:15PM ET, Saturday)
• Tigers vs. Twins (7:15PM ET, Saturday)
• Rays vs. Giants (9:05PM ET, Saturday)
• Padres vs. Dodgers (9:10PM ET, Saturday)
• Angels vs. Athletics (10:05PM ET, Saturday)

Conclusion

For August 16, 2025, our MLB home run predictions are locked in, with sluggers like Aaron Judge, Kyle Schwarber and Shohei Ohtani projected to be among the most powerful bats in today’s games. But it's Nolan Gorman who stands out as the best value bet, offering an appealing 5.5% edge at +850 odds.

These insights are based on 10,000 game simulations and are designed to help you identify smarter betting opportunities. As always, gamble responsibly. If you or someone you know needs support, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

For more coverage, check out today's MLB player props and MLB best bets. Plus, stay updated with the latest MLB news, MLB betting trends updated every 15 minutes, and World Series odds.

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