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MLB home run predictions for Monday led by Aaron Judge [6/16/2025]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Jason Bevilacqua, Head of Content and Communities
Our expert analysis on Monday's MLB home run market.
As Monday's MLB action gets underway on June 16, 2025, Aaron Judge leads the list of MLB home run predictions, according to the latest Dimers Pro simulation data.
Our MLB hitter projections for Monday's slate, powered by 10,000 simulations per matchup, highlight who's favored to slug a dinger today. Below, you'll find the most likely home run hitters across today's games.
Score 20% off with code 20BASEBALL Get Dimers Pro MLB home run predictions today [MLB cheat sheet for June 16, 2025]
| Player (Team) | Home run probability |
|---|---|
| Aaron Judge (Yankees) | 23.7% |
| Shohei Ohtani (Dodgers) | 22.1% |
| Kyle Schwarber (Phillies) | 20.4% |
| Mike Trout (Angels) | 🔒 |
| Cal Raleigh (Mariners) | 🔒 |
| Brent Rooker (Athletics) | 🔒 |
| Fernando Tatis (Padres) | 🔒 |
| Ben Rice (Yankees) | 🔒 |
| Teoscar Hernandez (Dodgers) | 🔒 |
| Jazz Chisholm (Yankees) | 🔒 |
According to our projections, Judge tops today's list with a 23.7% chance to hit a home run. He's followed closely by Shohei Ohtani (22.1%) and Kyle Schwarber (20.4%).
Mike Trout and Cal Raleigh are also among the top 10. To see their full probabilities, as well as projections for every player expected to take a turn at bat on Monday, sign up for Dimers Pro.
Dimers Pro pick of the day: MLB HR prop [Monday, 6/16/2025]
After evaluating projected home runs, weather factors, and pitching matchups, our model has surfaced the following standout home run value bet for Monday.
Jazz Chisholm Jr. (Yankees) to hit a home run
- Probability: 16.9%
- Odds: +750
- Edge: 5.1%
- Game: Angels vs. Yankees (7:05PM ET)
- Pitching matchup: José Soriano
Despite not being ranked in the top 10 most likely players to hit a home run today, Jazz Chisholm Jr. of the Yankees offers a strong +750 payout with BetMGM, with an edge of 5.1% according to our projections.
In a matchup against Angels starter José Soriano, factoring in both projection edge and odds,Jr. has emerged as the best HR bet on Monday's slate.
For more MLB picks and MLB predictions, sign up to Dimers Pro.
You’ll gain access to hit and RBI projections, pitcher props, and full access to our complete home run projections—perfect for building MLB parlays and round robins today
Access 68 HR picks for Monday Get Dimers Pro MLB schedule for today [Monday, June 16, 2025]
- Phillies vs. Marlins (6:40PM ET, Monday)
- Rockies vs. Nationals (6:45PM ET, Monday)
- Angels vs. Yankees (7:05PM ET, Monday)
- Red Sox vs. Mariners (9:40PM ET, Monday)
- Astros vs. Athletics (10:05PM ET, Monday)
- Padres vs. Dodgers (10:10PM ET, Monday)
Conclusion
For June 16, 2025, our MLB home run predictions are locked in, with players like Aaron Judge, Shohei Ohtani and Kyle Schwarber projected to be among the most powerful bats in today’s games. It's Jazz Chisholm Jr. though that stands out as the best value bet, offering a 5.1% edge at +750 odds.
These insights are based on 10,000 game simulations and are designed to help you identify smarter betting opportunities. As always, gamble responsibly. If you or someone you know needs support, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
For more coverage, check out today's MLB player props and MLB best bets. Plus, stay updated with the latest MLB news, MLB betting trends and World Series odds.
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Jason Bevilacqua, an expert in MLB, NHL, NBA, MLS, and NFL, delivers game previews, best bets, and props. Since 2020, as Head of Social and Community at Dimers, he has contributed insightful articles utilizing data-driven models and simulations.
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