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MLB home run predictions for Thursday spotlight Aaron Judge [6/12/2025]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Dave Garofolo, Content Producer
Our expert analysis on Thursday's MLB home run market.
As Thursday's MLB action gets underway on June 12, 2025, Aaron Judge tops the list of MLB home run predictions, according to the latest Dimers Pro simulation data.
Our MLB hitter projections for Thursday's slate, powered by 10,000 simulations per matchup, reveal who's favored to go deep today. See the table below for the most dangerous bats on the slate in today's games.
Score 20% off with code 20BASEBALL Get Dimers Pro MLB home run predictions today [MLB cheat sheet for June 12, 2025]
| Player (Team) | Home run probability |
|---|---|
| Aaron Judge (Yankees) | 23.2% |
| Pete Alonso (Mets) | 18.3% |
| Byron Buxton (Twins) | 17.5% |
| Juan Soto (Mets) | 🔒 |
| Christian Walker (Astros) | 🔒 |
| Ben Rice (Yankees) | 🔒 |
| Kerry Carpenter (Tigers) | 🔒 |
| Jazz Chisholm (Yankees) | 🔒 |
| Jerar Encarnacion (Giants) | 🔒 |
| Rhys Hoskins (Brewers) | 🔒 |
According to our projections, Judge tops today's list with a 23.2% chance to hit a home run. Right behind him are Pete Alonso (18.3%) and Byron Buxton (17.5%).
Juan Soto and Christian Walker are also among the top 10. To see their full probabilities, as well as projections for every player expected to take a turn at bat on Thursday, sign up for Dimers Pro.
Dimers Pro pick of the day: MLB HR prop [Thursday, 6/12/2025]
After evaluating projected home runs, weather factors, and pitching matchups, our model has surfaced the following standout home run value bet for Thursday.
Ryan O'Hearn (Orioles) to hit a home run
- Probability: 12.3%
- Odds: +1000
- Edge: 3.2%
- Game: Tigers vs. Orioles (6:35PM ET)
- Pitching matchup: Tarik Skubal
Despite not being ranked in the top 10 most likely players to hit a home run today, Ryan O'Hearn of the Orioles offers a strong +1000 payout with BetMGM, with an edge of 3.2% according to our projections.
Set to face Tarik Skubal in tonight’s Tigers-Orioles matchup, this combination of above-market value and power potential makes O'Hearn the best HR bet on Thursday's slate.
For more MLB picks and MLB predictions, sign up to Dimers Pro.
You’ll gain access to hit and RBI projections, pitcher props, and full access to our complete HR prop board—perfect for building MLB parlays and round robins today
Reveal 105 HR picks for Thursday Get Dimers Pro MLB schedule for today [Thursday, June 12, 2025]
- Rangers vs. Twins (1:10PM ET, Thursday)
- Nationals vs. Mets (1:10PM ET, Thursday)
- Tigers vs. Orioles (6:35PM ET, Thursday)
- Yankees vs. Royals (7:40PM ET, Thursday)
- Cardinals vs. Brewers (7:40PM ET, Thursday)
- Pirates vs. Cubs (8:05PM ET, Thursday)
- White Sox vs. Astros (8:10PM ET, Thursday)
Conclusion
For June 12, 2025, our MLB home run predictions are locked in, with players like Aaron Judge, Pete Alonso and Byron Buxton projected to be among the most powerful bats in today’s games. It's Ryan O'Hearn though that stands out as the best value bet, offering a 3.2% edge at +1000 odds.
These insights are based on 10,000 game simulations and are designed to help you identify smarter betting opportunities. As always, gamble responsibly. If you or someone you know needs support, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
For more coverage, check out today's MLB player props and MLB best bets. Plus, stay updated with the latest MLB news, MLB betting trends and World Series odds.
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Dave Garofolo uses sophisticated AI-driven analytics to make predictions and evaluate player performances in the NBA, MLB, NFL, NHL, NCAAM, and PGA TOUR tournaments, crafting insightful game and prop previews.
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