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Read Article Home run predictions and picks: Top bet for Sunday has +428 odds [5/3/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Jason Bevilacqua, Head of Content and Communities
Get home run predictions today backed by expert analysis of Sunday's MLB slate.
Our MLB home run predictions for Sunday, May 3, 2026, feature Nick Kurtz as the top projected hitter, based on Dimers Pro's latest simulation data.
Sunday's HR projections come from our home run predictions, which highlight the most likely home run hitters today.
Home run predictions for May 3, 2026
See which hitters join Kurtz on today’s list plus find our best value play for Sunday’s slate.
| Player (Team) | HR Projection |
|---|---|
| Nick Kurtz (Athletics) | 25.0% |
| Aaron Judge (Yankees) | 23.7% |
| Shea Langeliers (Athletics) | 23.5% |
| Brent Rooker (Athletics) | 22.1% |
| Juan Soto (Mets) | 21.4% |
| Matt Olson (Braves) | 20.2% |
| Tyler Soderstrom (Athletics) | 19.5% |
| Austin Riley (Braves) | 19.2% |
| Kyle Schwarber (Phillies) | 18.8% |
| Ben Rice (Yankees) | 18.3% |
Our analysis shows Kurtz leads today's MLB home run predictions with a 25.0% chance to go yard, followed by Aaron Judge (23.7%) and Shea Langeliers (23.5%).
Brent Rooker and Juan Soto are among several other sluggers to rank inside the top 10.
Want the full list of home run props today—including every player's HR prediction for Sunday? Check out today's HR and hitter projections and sort by “To Hit HR” to see every player’s probability of going deep.
Sunday's home run picks [5/3/2026]
After running 10,000 simulations per matchup and assessing key factors like weather and pitching form, Dimers Pro’s data highlights today’s top home run prop.
Nick Kurtz (Athletics) to hit a home run
- Probability: 25.1%
- Odds: +428
- Edge: 6.2%
- Game: Guardians vs. Athletics (4:05 PM EDT)
- Pitching matchup: Parker Messick
Ranked top of today’s home run projections, Cleveland slugger Nick Kurtz rates as a value play at +428 with DraftKings Sportsbook, showing a 6.2% edge.
Against Guardians starter Parker Messick, the data supports Kurtz as one of Sunday’s strongest value spots among available home run props.
Pro users have access to a total of 22 home run betting edges today, plus hit and RBI projections, pitcher props, and more—perfect for building smarter MLB parlays and round robins.
Conclusion
For May 3, 2026, our MLB home run predictions are locked in, with sluggers like Nick Kurtz, Aaron Judge and Shea Langeliers projected to be among the most powerful bats in today’s games. Kurtz in particular emerges with the day’s strongest model-backed value, supported by a 6.2% edge at +428 odds.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
Jason Bevilacqua, an expert in MLB, NHL, NBA, MLS, and NFL, delivers game previews, best bets, and props. Since 2020, as Head of Social and Community at Dimers, he has contributed insightful articles utilizing data-driven models and simulations.
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