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Read Article Mets vs. Phillies prediction: Why Mets are favored to win Thursday's MLB matchup [6/18/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Dave Garofolo, Content Producer
Get New York Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies predictions for MLB Thursday.
MLB action continues on Thursday at 6:40 PM ET as the New York Mets lock horns with the Philadelphia Phillies at Citizens Bank Park.
Aaron Nola (3-4, 5.86 ERA) will be on the bump for the Phillies, while the Mets have opted for Sean Manaea (1-2, 4.78 ERA).
Based on updated simulations, Dimers' proven MLB model gives the Mets a slight edge with a 50.1% win probability over the Phillies.
This article offers an expanded analysis of Thursday's Mets vs. Phillies matchup, including best bets and picks.
Mets vs. Phillies prediction: Who will win and cover?
Using powerful machine learning and data, we have simulated the result of Thursday's MLB game between the Mets and Phillies, forming part of our MLB predictions coverage.
Our leading predictive model gives the Mets a 50.1% chance of beating the Phillies.
According to our model, the Mets (+1.5) have a 65.1% chance of covering the run line, while the over/under total of 9.5 runs has a 50.7% chance of going over,.
Mets vs. Phillies odds [6/18/2026]
We have researched the best MLB odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Mets | Phillies |
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | +1.5 (-190) | -1.5 (+168) |
| Moneyline | +105 | -122 |
| Total | o9.5 (-102) | u9.5 (-114) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Mets vs. Phillies picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Mets +1.5 | -190 |
| Moneyline | Mets | +105 |
| Total | Over 9.5 | -102 |
According to our best MLB bets, the top play to make on this game is Mets to win.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Mets vs. Phillies game-day updates and essential details
Thursday's MLB action between the Phillies and Mets at Citizens Bank Park is scheduled to begin at 6:40 PM ET.
- Who: New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies
- Date: Thursday, June 18, 2026
- Time: 6:40 PM ET/3:40PM PT
- Venue: Citizens Bank Park
Conclusion
We predict the Mets, with a 50.1% win probability, will likely beat the Phillies in Thursday's MLB matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
Dave Garofolo uses sophisticated AI-driven analytics to make predictions and evaluate player performances in the NBA, MLB, NFL, NHL, NCAAM, and PGA TOUR tournaments, crafting insightful game and prop previews.
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