MLB picks today: Wednesday's MLB best bets include Astros vs. Guardians play [4/22/2026]

Astros ML (+135)

• Edge: 5.4%
• Probability: 46.9%
• Matchup: Astros vs. Guardians (1:10PM ET, Wednesday)

Our model has identified value on Astros to defeat Guardians at +135 odds. A 46.9% probability produces an edge of 5.4%, making this the strongest play for today's MLB slate.

Pirates vs. Rangers over 8 runs (-108)

• Edge: 4.4%
• Probability: 56.3%
• Matchup: Pirates vs. Rangers (8:05PM ET, Wednesday)

Pirates vs. Rangers over 8 runs carries a 4.4% edge and a probability of 56.3% at -108 odds, according to our model.

White Sox vs. Diamondbacks over 9 runs (-120)

• Edge: 3.4%
• Probability: 57.9%
• Matchup: White Sox vs. Diamondbacks (9:40PM ET, Wednesday)

White Sox vs. Diamondbacks over 9 runs at -120 odds shows a 3.4% edge, supported by a 57.9% probability in simulations.

Padres vs. Rockies over 12 runs (-106)

• Edge: 2.6%
• Probability: 54.1%
• Matchup: Padres vs. Rockies (8:40PM ET, Wednesday)

A 2.6% edge and 54.1% probability make Padres vs. Rockies over 12 runs at a value play in the Padres vs. Rockies matchup, per our model.

Braves vs. Nationals over 9 runs (-105)

• Edge: 2.6%
• Probability: 53.8%
• Matchup: Braves vs. Nationals (6:45PM ET, Wednesday)

Braves vs. Nationals over 9 runs at -105 odds presents a 2.6% edge, with simulations resulting in a probability of 53.8%.

Astros +1.5 (-170)

• Edge: 2.5%
• Probability: 65.5%
• Matchup: Astros vs. Guardians (1:10PM ET, Wednesday)

Our model finds value on Astros +1.5 at -170 odds, supported by an edge of 2.5%.

Brewers vs. Tigers over 7.5 runs (-105)

• Edge: 2.4%
• Probability: 53.6%
• Matchup: Brewers vs. Tigers (6:40PM ET, Wednesday)

Our model has uncovered value on Brewers vs. Tigers over 7.5 runs at -105 odds. A 53.6% probability produces a 2.4% edge, making this a strong play for today's MLB action.

Diamondbacks -1.5 (+135)

• Edge: 2.2%
• Probability: 44.8%
• Matchup: White Sox vs. Diamondbacks (9:40PM ET, Wednesday)

A 2.2% edge on a 44.8% probability makes Diamondbacks -1.5 at +135 odds a solid value play in today's White Sox vs. Diamondbacks matchup.

MLB best bets summary: Wednesday, 4/22/2026

As of 10:32AM ET, here are our top MLB bets by edge recommended by our model:

Matchup	Bet	Odds	Edge	Probability
Astros vs. Guardians	Astros ML	+135 @ BetMGM	5.4%	46.9%
Pirates vs. Rangers	Over 8 Runs	-108 @ DraftKings	4.4%	56.3%
White Sox vs. Diamondbacks	Over 9 Runs	-120 @ BetMGM	3.4%	57.9%
Padres vs. Rockies	Over 12 Runs	-106 @ DraftKings	2.6%	54.1%
Braves vs. Nationals	Over 9 Runs	-105 @ BetMGM	2.6%	53.8%
Astros vs. Guardians	Astros +1.5	-170 @ FanDuel	2.5%	65.5%
Brewers vs. Tigers	Over 7.5 Runs	-105 @ DraftKings	2.4%	53.6%
White Sox vs. Diamondbacks	Diamondbacks -1.5	+135 @ BetMGM	2.2%	44.8%

List of upcoming MLB games to bet on [4/22/2026]

• Cardinals vs. Marlins (12:10PM ET, Wednesday)
• Astros vs. Guardians (1:10PM ET, Wednesday)
• Reds vs. Rays (1:10PM ET, Wednesday)
• Orioles vs. Royals (2:10PM ET, Wednesday)
• Blue Jays vs. Angels (3:07PM ET, Wednesday)
• Athletics vs. Mariners (4:10PM ET, Wednesday)
• Brewers vs. Tigers (6:40PM ET, Wednesday)
• Braves vs. Nationals (6:45PM ET, Wednesday)
• Yankees vs. Red Sox (6:45PM ET, Wednesday)
• Twins vs. Mets (7:10PM ET, Wednesday)
• Phillies vs. Cubs (7:40PM ET, Wednesday)
• Pirates vs. Rangers (8:05PM ET, Wednesday)
• Padres vs. Rockies (8:40PM ET, Wednesday)
• White Sox vs. D-Backs (9:40PM ET, Wednesday)
• Dodgers vs. Giants (9:45PM ET, Wednesday)

Conclusion

Our MLB best bets are locked and loaded for April 22, 2026, featuring plays such as Astros ML and over 8 runs in the Pirates vs. Rangers matchup. Powered by advanced simulations, these picks are here to boost your betting game.

Our predictions are rooted in current data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice, head to our Responsible Gambling hub.

All odds and probabilities in this article are correct and accurate at the time of publication.