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Vikings vs. Giants prediction: Minnesota favored to win in NFL Week 16 [2025]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Mac Douglass, Senior Editor
Get Minnesota Vikings vs New York Giants predictions for NFL Sunday.
The New York Giants will square off with the Minnesota Vikings in NFL Week 16 action at MetLife Stadium on Sunday, commencing at 1:00 PM ET.
Based on the latest simulations, Dimers' proven NFL model predicts the Vikings as the most likely winner of the Vikings vs. Giants game.
This article offers a closer look at this week's matchup, including projected touchdown scorers, best bets and player prop picks.
Vikings vs. Giants prediction: Who will win and cover?
Since our Vikings-Giants predictions earlier in the week, we have simulated the outcome of Sunday's NFL matchup between the Vikings and Giants 10,000 times as part of our NFL predictions coverage.
Our leading predictive model gives the Vikings a 56% chance of beating the Giants in Week 16 of the NFL season. Our predicted final score has the Vikings winning 21-20.
According to our model, the Giants (+2.5) have a 58% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 41.5 points has an equal 50-50 chance of hitting.
To see win probabilities for every matchup this week, check out our expert NFL Week 16 straight up picks.
Vikings vs. Giants odds
We have sourced the best NFL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Vikings | Giants |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | -2.5 (-112) | +2.5 (-102) |
| Moneyline | -144 | +125 |
| Total | o41.5 (-105) | u41.5 (-108) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Vikings vs. Giants picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Giants +2.5 | -102 |
| Moneyline | Giants | +125 |
| Total | Over 41.5 | -105 |
According to our NFL best bets, the top play to make on this game is Giants +2.5 at the spread.
Vikings vs. Giants TD scorers
Who will score a touchdown in Vikings vs. Giants?
According to our list of touchdown scorer predictions for today, Jordan Mason is most likely to score an anytime TD in Vikings vs. Giants.
Our projections give Mason a 36.3% chance of scoring a TD at MetLife Stadium, while the running back is an 8.8% chance of scoring the first touchdown the game.
Anytime touchdown scorer predictions
Minnesota Vikings
| Player | Anytime TD Probability |
|---|---|
| Jordan Mason (RB) | 36.3% |
| Justin Jefferson (WR) | 33.6% |
| Jordan Addison (WR) | 29.9% |
| Aaron Jones (RB) | 27.1% |
| Jalen Nailor (WR) | 22.4% |
New York Giants
| Player | Anytime TD Probability |
|---|---|
| Jaxson Dart (QB) | 34.0% |
| Tyrone Tracy (RB) | 32.7% |
| Wan'Dale Robinson (WR) | 29.4% |
| Theo Johnson (TE) | 25.6% |
| Devin Singletary (RB) | 24.6% |
First touchdown scorer predictions
Minnesota Vikings
| Player | First TD Probability |
|---|---|
| Jordan Mason (RB) | 8.8% |
| Justin Jefferson (WR) | 8.0% |
| Jordan Addison (WR) | 6.9% |
| Aaron Jones (RB) | 6.2% |
| Jalen Nailor (WR) | 4.9% |
New York Giants
| Player | First TD Probability |
|---|---|
| Jaxson Dart (QB) | 7.6% |
| Tyrone Tracy (RB) | 7.2% |
| Wan'Dale Robinson (WR) | 6.4% |
| Theo Johnson (TE) | 5.4% |
| Devin Singletary (RB) | 5.2% |
Vikings vs Giants player props
Discover our predictions for the players likely to lead in passing, rushing and receiving yards for both the Vikings and Giants. Head to our NFL player projections page now to access a full list of player prop projections for every offensive player in this matchup and all other Week 16 games.
Quarterbacks
Of the starting quarterbacks, the Vikings' J.J. McCarthy is projected for 194 passing yards. The Giants' Jaxson Dart is expected to throw for 199 yards.
| Player | Proj. Pass Yards |
|---|---|
| J.J. McCarthy (MIN) | 194 |
| Jaxson Dart (NYG) | 199 |
Vikings rushing
| Player | Proj. Rush Yards |
|---|---|
| Aaron Jones | 55 |
| Jordan Mason | 50 |
| J.J. McCarthy | 17 |
Giants rushing
| Player | Proj. Rush Yards |
|---|---|
| Tyrone Tracy | 56 |
| Jaxson Dart | 32 |
| Devin Singletary | 30 |
Vikings receiving
| Player | Proj. Rec. Yards |
|---|---|
| Justin Jefferson | 63 |
| Jordan Addison | 44 |
| T.J. Hockenson | 31 |
| Jalen Nailor | 27 |
| Aaron Jones | 19 |
Giants receiving
| Player | Proj. Rec. Yards |
|---|---|
| Wan'Dale Robinson | 57 |
| Darius Slayton | 42 |
| Theo Johnson | 38 |
| Isaiah Hodgins | 21 |
| Tyrone Tracy | 17 |
Vikings vs. Giants game-day updates and essential details
The NFL Week 16 game between the Giants and Vikings at MetLife Stadium is scheduled to commence at 1:00 PM ET.
- Who: Minnesota Vikings vs. New York Giants
- Date: Sunday, December 21, 2025
- Time: 1:00 PM ET/10:00AM PT
- Venue: MetLife Stadium
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Conclusion
We predict the Vikings, with a 56% win probability, will likely beat the Giants in Week 16 of the NFL season.
AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Vikings vs. Giants insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are based on up-to-date data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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Mac Douglass specializes in NFL previews for the NFC South and NFC East, MLB best bets, Formula 1 race previews, and professional tennis insights. Combining predictive simulations and data-driven sports analysis, Mac provides in-depth content to elevate the betting experience for sports fans.
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