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Vikings vs. Giants prediction: Minnesota favored to win in NFL Week 16 [2025]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Mac Douglass, Senior Editor
Get Minnesota Vikings vs New York Giants predictions for NFL Sunday.
NFL Week 16 action continues on Sunday at 1:00 PM ET as the Minnesota Vikings take on the New York Giants at MetLife Stadium.
Based on the latest simulations, Dimers' proven NFL model predicts the Vikings as the most likely winner of the Vikings vs. Giants game.
This article offers an expanded analysis of this week's matchup, including projected touchdown scorers, best bets and player prop picks.
Vikings vs. Giants prediction: Who will win and cover?
Since our Vikings-Giants predictions earlier in the week, we have simulated the outcome of Sunday's NFL game between the Vikings and Giants 10,000 times as part of our NFL predictions coverage.
Our independent predictive model gives the Vikings a 56% chance of defeating the Giants in Week 16 of the NFL season. Our predicted final score has the Vikings winning 22-21.
According to our model, the Giants (+2.5) have a 58% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 43.5 points has an equal 50-50 chance of hitting.
To see win probabilities for every matchup this week, check out our expert NFL Week 16 straight up picks.
Vikings vs. Giants odds
We have sourced the best NFL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Vikings | Giants |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | -2.5 (-118) | +2.5 (-102) |
| Moneyline | -144 | +125 |
| Total | o43.5 (-105) | u43.5 (-115) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Vikings vs. Giants picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Giants +2.5 | -102 |
| Moneyline | Giants | +125 |
| Total | Over 43.5 | -105 |
According to our best NFL bets, the top play to make on this game is Giants +2.5 at the spread.
Vikings vs. Giants TD scorers
Who will score a touchdown in Vikings vs. Giants?
According to our model, Justin Jefferson is most likely to score an anytime TD in Vikings vs. Giants.
Our projections give Jefferson a 36.3% chance of getting in for six at MetLife Stadium, while the wide receiver is an 8.7% chance of scoring the first touchdown the game.
Anytime touchdown scorer predictions
Minnesota Vikings
| Player | Anytime TD Probability |
|---|---|
| Justin Jefferson (WR) | 36.3% |
| Jordan Mason (RB) | 32.5% |
| Aaron Jones (RB) | 29.2% |
| Jordan Addison (WR) | 28.5% |
| T.J. Hockenson (TE) | 21.4% |
New York Giants
| Player | Anytime TD Probability |
|---|---|
| Tyrone Tracy (RB) | 33.0% |
| Jaxson Dart (QB) | 30.4% |
| Wan'Dale Robinson (WR) | 27.4% |
| Devin Singletary (RB) | 27.3% |
| Theo Johnson (TE) | 24.4% |
First touchdown scorer predictions
Minnesota Vikings
| Player | First TD Probability |
|---|---|
| Justin Jefferson (WR) | 8.7% |
| Jordan Mason (RB) | 7.6% |
| Aaron Jones (RB) | 6.6% |
| Jordan Addison (WR) | 6.5% |
| T.J. Hockenson (TE) | 4.6% |
New York Giants
| Player | First TD Probability |
|---|---|
| Tyrone Tracy (RB) | 7.3% |
| Jaxson Dart (QB) | 6.6% |
| Wan'Dale Robinson (WR) | 5.9% |
| Devin Singletary (RB) | 5.8% |
| Theo Johnson (TE) | 5.1% |
Vikings vs Giants player props
Discover our predictions for the players likely to lead in passing, rushing and receiving yards for both the Vikings and Giants. Head to our NFL player projections page now to access a full list of player prop projections for every offensive player in this matchup and all other Week 16 games.
Quarterbacks
Of the starting quarterbacks, the Vikings' J.J. McCarthy is projected for 195 passing yards. The Giants' Jaxson Dart is expected to throw for 202 yards.
| Player | Proj. Pass Yards |
|---|---|
| J.J. McCarthy (MIN) | 195 |
| Jaxson Dart (NYG) | 202 |
Vikings rushing
| Player | Proj. Rush Yards |
|---|---|
| Aaron Jones | 55 |
| Jordan Mason | 49 |
| J.J. McCarthy | 16 |
Giants rushing
| Player | Proj. Rush Yards |
|---|---|
| Tyrone Tracy | 55 |
| Jaxson Dart | 32 |
| Devin Singletary | 31 |
Vikings receiving
| Player | Proj. Rec. Yards |
|---|---|
| Justin Jefferson | 62 |
| Jordan Addison | 44 |
| T.J. Hockenson | 31 |
| Jalen Nailor | 29 |
| Aaron Jones | 19 |
Giants receiving
| Player | Proj. Rec. Yards |
|---|---|
| Wan'Dale Robinson | 58 |
| Darius Slayton | 42 |
| Theo Johnson | 39 |
| Isaiah Hodgins | 21 |
| Tyrone Tracy | 17 |
Vikings vs. Giants game-day updates and essential details
The NFL Week 16 matchup between the Giants and Vikings at MetLife Stadium is scheduled to start at 1:00 PM ET.
- Who: Minnesota Vikings vs. New York Giants
- Date: Sunday, December 21, 2025
- Time: 1:00 PM ET/10:00AM PT
- Venue: MetLife Stadium
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Conclusion
We predict the Vikings, with a 56% win probability, will likely beat the Giants in Week 16 of the NFL season.
AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Vikings vs. Giants insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are drawn from up-to-date data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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Mac Douglass specializes in NFL previews for the NFC South and NFC East, MLB best bets, Formula 1 race previews, and professional tennis insights. Combining predictive simulations and data-driven sports analysis, Mac provides in-depth content to elevate the betting experience for sports fans.
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