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Heat vs. Suns prediction: Why Phoenix is favored to win Sunday's NBA matchup [1/25/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Jason Bevilacqua, Head of Content and Communities
Get Miami Heat vs Phoenix Suns predictions for NBA Sunday.
NBA action continues on Sunday at 8:00 PM ET as the Miami Heat take on the Phoenix Suns at Mortgage Matchup Center.
Based on updated simulation results and today’s injury updates, Dimers' proven NBA model projects the Suns as the most likely winner of the Heat vs. Suns game.
This prediction follows the latest NBA Injury Report, which suggests the Suns lineup will feature stars like Dillon Brooks, Grayson Allen and Collin Gillespie, while the Heat will rely on Norman Powell, Bam Adebayo and Jaime Jaquez.
This article offers an expanded analysis of Sunday's matchup, including an expanded look at the predicted score, best bets and player prop picks.
Heat vs. Suns prediction: Who will win and cover?
Using powerful machine learning and data, we have simulated the outcome of Sunday's NBA game between the Heat and Suns 10,000 times as part of our NBA predictions coverage.
Our leading predictive model currently gives the Suns a 62% chance of defeating the Heat. Our predicted final score has the Suns winning 114-110.
According to our model, the Heat (+4.5) have a 54% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 225.5 points has an equal 50-50 chance of hitting.
Heat vs. Suns odds
We have sourced the best NBA odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Heat | Suns |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | +4.5 (-112) | -4.5 (-102) |
| Moneyline | +150 | -174 |
| Total | o225.5 (-112) | u225.5 (-105) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Heat vs. Suns picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Heat +4.5 | -112 |
| Moneyline | Heat | +150 |
| Total | Under 225.5 | -105 |
According to our best NBA bets for Sunday, the top play to make on this game is Heat +4.5 at the spread.
Heat vs. Suns player props
Looking for Miami vs. Phoenix NBA prop bets? We use the best information available to project how each team's leading players will perform at Mortgage Matchup Center.
Norman Powell is expected to lead the Heat with 21 points, 3 rebounds and 2 assists, while Dillon Brooks is projected to have 22 points, 4 rebounds and 2 assists for the Suns.
Check out our NBA player projections for a full range of projected box scores, including points, assists, rebounds and today's NBA first basket picks.
Heat prediction
Our model's projected player stats for the Heat are:
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | DFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Norman Powell | 21 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 33 |
| Bam Adebayo | 18 | 10 | 3 | 2 | 41 |
| Jaime Jaquez | 17 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 36 |
| Andrew Wiggins | 16 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 32 |
| Pelle Larsson | 11 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 24 |
Suns prediction
Projected points, rebounds, assists and three-pointers made for the Suns:
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | DFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dillon Brooks | 22 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 35 |
| Grayson Allen | 18 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 35 |
| C. Gillespie | 18 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 41 |
| Mark Williams | 12 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 30 |
| Royce O'Neale | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 28 |
Heat vs. Suns game-day updates and essential details
Sunday's game between the Suns and Heat at Mortgage Matchup Center is scheduled to commence at 8:00 PM ET.
- Who: Miami Heat vs. Phoenix Suns
- Date: Sunday, January 25, 2026
- Time: 8:00 PM ET/5:00PM PT
- Venue: Mortgage Matchup Center
Conclusion
We predict the Suns, with a 62% win probability, will likely beat the Heat on Sunday, with Collin Gillespie projected for a game-high 41 fantasy points.
AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Heat vs. Suns insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are drawn from up-to-date data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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Jason Bevilacqua, an expert in MLB, NHL, NBA, MLS, and NFL, delivers game previews, best bets, and props. Since 2020, as Head of Social and Community at Dimers, he has contributed insightful articles utilizing data-driven models and simulations.
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