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NBA first basket picks and predictions for Sunday, January 25, 2026
Updated: | First published:
Written by Jason Bevilacqua, Head of Content and Communities
Get first basket predictions today guided by expert analysis of NBA slate on 1/25.
Our NBA first basket picks and predictions for today—Sunday, January 25, 2026—are live with the Thunder's Shai Gilgeous-Alexander projected as the most likely player to score first.
These projections make use of detailed first basket stats, including player efficiency, shot frequency, and expected starting lineups, forming part of our daily NBA player projections.
Gilgeous-Alexander, Victor Wembanyama and Kawhi Leonard lead Sunday’s most likely first basket scorers, while we also feature tonight's best first basket value picks by comparing real-time odds to model-generated probabilities.
NBA first basket predictions tonight (January 25, 2026)
| Player | Team | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | Thunder | 18.0% |
| Victor Wembanyama | Spurs | 17.2% |
| Kawhi Leonard | Clippers | 15.6% |
| Zion Williamson | Pelicans | 14.2% |
| Norman Powell | Heat | 13.7% |
| Bam Adebayo | Heat | 12.7% |
| Grayson Allen | Suns | 12.1% |
| Chet Holmgren | Thunder | 11.5% |
| Dillon Brooks | Suns | 11.4% |
| De'Aaron Fox | Spurs | 11.4% |
| RJ Barrett | Raptors | 11.4% |
| James Harden | Clippers | 10.8% |
| John Collins | Clippers | 10.5% |
| Andrew Wiggins | Heat | 10.4% |
| Mark Williams | Suns | 10.3% |
NBA first basket picks today (January 25, 2026)
| Player | Team | Edge | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RJ Barrett | Raptors | 1.4% | +900 | 11.4% |
| Norman Powell | Heat | 1.2% | +700 | 13.7% |
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | Thunder | 0.8% | +480 | 18.0% |
Edges represent the difference between model probability and implied odds.
For more insights on prop markets and value plays across the league, explore our full list of NBA prop bets for 1/25.
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Conclusion: Betting on today's NBA first basket
For Sunday, January 25, 2026, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Victor Wembanyama and Kawhi Leonard lead our first basket projections, while RJ Barrett shapes as the strongest value play at +900. All picks and predictions are derived from Dimers’ NBA first basket model.
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Jason Bevilacqua, an expert in MLB, NHL, NBA, MLS, and NFL, delivers game previews, best bets, and props. Since 2020, as Head of Social and Community at Dimers, he has contributed insightful articles utilizing data-driven models and simulations.
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