Heat vs. Nuggets prediction: Denver favored to win Wednesday's NBA matchup [11/5/2025]

The Denver Nuggets will square off with the Miami Heat in NBA action at Ball Arena on Wednesday, commencing at 9:00PM ET.

Based on updated simulation results and today’s injury updates, Dimers' advanced NBA model predicts the Nuggets as the most likely winner of the Heat vs. Nuggets game.

This prediction follows the latest NBA Injury Report, which suggests the Nuggets lineup will feature stars like Nikola Jokic, Jamal Murray and Aaron Gordon, while the Heat will look to Bam Adebayo, Norman Powell and Andrew Wiggins.

This article offers an expanded analysis of Wednesday's matchup, including an expanded look at the predicted score, best bets and player prop picks.

Heat vs. Nuggets prediction: Who will win, cover the spread?

Using trusted machine learning and statistical analysis, we have simulated the outcome of Wednesday's NBA matchup between the Heat and Nuggets 10,000 times as part of our NBA predictions coverage.

Our leading predictive model currently gives the Nuggets a 75% chance of beating the Heat. Our predicted final score has the Nuggets winning 123-116.

According to our model, the Heat (+8.5) have a 54% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 241.5 points has a 54% chance of staying under.

Heat vs. Nuggets odds

We have sourced the best NBA odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

Bet Type	Heat	Nuggets
Spread	+8.5 (-105)	-8.5 (-115)
Moneyline	+300	-375
Total	o241.5 (-114)	u241.5 (-105)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Heat vs. Nuggets picks and best bet

After matching our probabilities against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

Bet Type	Pick	Bet Now
Spread	Heat +8.5	-105
Moneyline	Heat	+300
Total	Under 241.5	-105

According to our best NBA bets for Wednesday, the top play to make on this game is Heat +8.5 at the spread.

Heat vs. Nuggets player props

NBA player props are a common way to wager on Wednesday's Miami vs. Denver game without necessarily betting on the outcome. We have crunched the numbers to project how each team's leading players will perform at Ball Arena.

Bam Adebayo is expected to lead the Heat with 19 points, 8 rebounds and 3 assists, while Nikola Jokic is projected to have 24 points, 12 rebounds and 9 assists for the Nuggets.

Check out our NBA player projections for a full range of projected box scores, including points, assists, rebounds and more, for every game this season.

Heat prediction

Our model's projected player stats for the Heat are:

Player	PTS	REB	AST	3PM
Bam Adebayo	19	8	3	1
Norman Powell	19	3	2	2
Andrew Wiggins	18	4	3	2
Jaime Jaquez	14	5	5	1
Davion Mitchell	10	2	6	1

Nuggets prediction

Projected points, rebounds, assists and three-pointers made for the Nuggets:

Player	PTS	REB	AST	3PM
Nikola Jokic	24	12	9	2
Jamal Murray	22	4	6	3
Aaron Gordon	16	5	3	2
Cameron Johnson	15	4	3	2
Christian Braun	13	5	3	1

Heat vs. Nuggets game-day updates and essential details

Wednesday's matchup between the Nuggets and Heat at Ball Arena is scheduled to start at 9:00PM ET.

• Who: Miami Heat vs. Denver Nuggets
• Date: Wednesday, November 5, 2025
• Time: 9:00PM ET/6:00PM PT
• Venue: Ball Arena

Conclusion

We predict the Nuggets, with a 75% win probability, will likely beat the Heat on Wednesday.

AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Heat vs. Nuggets insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are sourced from the latest data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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