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Men's college basketball picks today: Monday's best bets include USC vs. Michigan State play [1/5/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Jason Bevilacqua, Head of Content and Communities
Get college basketball picks and best bets for Monday, January 5, 2026.
Today’s men's college basketball picks for January 5, 2026 are here, with USC vs. Michigan State among the top plays identified by our model across Monday’s men's college basketball slate.
Dimers’ predictive analytics engine runs 24/7, scanning the latest men's college basketball odds to find genuine betting edges. The result? Data-backed picks that help Dimers Pro members make smarter decisions.
List of NCAAM picks tonight [1/5, updated 7:36PM ET]
Below, you’ll find today’s top 10 men's college basketball bets, ranked by edge for Monday, January 5, 2026.
USC vs. Michigan State over 151.5 points (-105)
- Edge: 2.4%
- Probability: 53.6%
- Matchup: USC vs. Michigan State (8:30PM ET, Monday)
Our model has identified value on over 151.5 points in USC vs. Michigan State at -105 odds. A 53.6% probability produces an edge of 2.4%, making this the strongest play for today's men's college basketball slate.
Michigan State -10.5 (-118)
- Edge: 2.1%
- Probability: 56.2%
- Matchup: USC vs. Michigan State (8:30PM ET, Monday)
Michigan State -10.5 carries a 2.1% edge and a probability of 56.2% at -118 odds, according to our model.
Michigan vs. Penn State under 164.5 points (-105)
- Edge: 3.5%
- Probability: 54.7%
- Matchup: Michigan vs. Penn State (7:00PM ET, Tuesday)
A 3.5% edge and 54.7% probability make Michigan vs. Penn State under 164.5 points at a value play in the Michigan vs. Penn State matchup, per our model.
Ball State ML (-110)
- Edge: 3.0%
- Probability: 55.4%
- Matchup: Eastern Michigan vs. Ball State (7:00PM ET, Tuesday)
Ball State ML at -110 odds presents a 3.0% edge, with simulations resulting in a probability of 55.4%.
Penn State ML (+2500)
- Edge: 2.7%
- Probability: 6.5%
- Matchup: Michigan vs. Penn State (7:00PM ET, Tuesday)
Our model finds value on Penn State to win at +2500 odds, supported by an edge of 2.7%.
USC vs. Michigan State over 151.5 points (-105)
- Edge: 2.4%
- Probability: 53.6%
- Matchup: USC vs. Michigan State (8:30PM ET, Monday)
Our model has uncovered value on USC vs. Michigan State over 151.5 points at -105 odds. A 53.6% probability produces a 2.4% edge, making this a strong play for today's men's college basketball action.
Bowling Green +1.5 (-110)
- Edge: 2.4%
- Probability: 54.8%
- Matchup: Bowling Green vs. Kent State (7:00PM ET, Tuesday)
A 2.4% edge on a 54.8% probability makes Bowling Green +1.5 at -110 odds a solid value play in today's Bowling Green vs. Kent State matchup.
Georgia vs. Florida under 172.5 points (-110)
- Edge: 2.3%
- Probability: 54.6%
- Matchup: Georgia vs. Florida (7:00PM ET, Tuesday)
Our model projects value on under 172.5 points at -110 odds. A 54.6% probability produces a 2.3% edge, making the under the favorable side in Saturday’s matchup.
Michigan State -10.5 (-118)
- Edge: 2.1%
- Probability: 56.2%
- Matchup: USC vs. Michigan State (8:30PM ET, Monday)
Rounding out our top 10 bets, Michigan State -10.5 at -118 odds shows a 56.2% probability and a 2.1% edge.
NCAAM best bets summary: Monday, 1/5/2026
As of 7:36PM ET, here are our top men's college basketball bets by edge recommended by our model:
| Matchup | Bet | Odds | Edge | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| USC vs. Michigan State | Over 151.5 Points | -105 @ FanDuel | 2.4% | 53.6% |
| USC vs. Michigan State | Michigan State -10.5 | -118 @ BetMGM | 2.1% | 56.2% |
| Michigan vs. Penn State | Under 164.5 Points | -105 @ FanDuel | 3.5% | 54.7% |
| Eastern Michigan vs. Ball State | Ball State ML | -110 @ DraftKings | 3.0% | 55.4% |
| Michigan vs. Penn State | Penn State ML | +2500 @ FanDuel | 2.7% | 6.5% |
| USC vs. Michigan State | Over 151.5 Points | -105 @ FanDuel | 2.4% | 53.6% |
| Bowling Green vs. Kent State | Bowling Green +1.5 | -110 @ DraftKings | 2.4% | 54.8% |
| Georgia vs. Florida | Under 172.5 Points | -110 @ BetMGM | 2.3% | 54.6% |
| USC vs. Michigan State | Michigan State -10.5 | -118 @ BetMGM | 2.1% | 56.2% |
List of upcoming men's college basketball games to bet on now
- Alabama A&M vs. Mississippi Valley State (8:00PM ET, Monday)
- USC vs. Michigan State (8:30PM ET, Monday)
- Massachusetts vs. Ohio (6:00PM ET, Tuesday)
- Duke vs. Louisville (7:00PM ET, Tuesday)
- Michigan vs. Penn State (7:00PM ET, Tuesday)
- Cincinnati vs. West Virginia (7:00PM ET, Tuesday)
- Georgia vs. Florida (7:00PM ET, Tuesday)
- St. John's vs. Butler (7:00PM ET, Tuesday)
- Eastern Michigan vs. Ball State (7:00PM ET, Tuesday)
- South Carolina vs. LSU (7:00PM ET, Tuesday)
What Is Dimebot?
Dimebot is Dimers’ AI bet assistant, designed to surface swift insights, answer betting questions, and help you explore data more efficiently.
Conclusion
Our men's college basketball best bets are locked and loaded for January 5, 2026, featuring plays such as over 151.5 points in the USC vs. Michigan State matchup and Michigan State -10.5. Powered by advanced simulations, these picks are here to boost your betting game.
This article, enhanced by AI and automation, aims to deliver accurate college basketball insights quickly, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are sourced from current data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.
All odds and probabilities in this article are correct and accurate at the time of publication.
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Jason Bevilacqua, an expert in MLB, NHL, NBA, MLS, and NFL, delivers game previews, best bets, and props. Since 2020, as Head of Social and Community at Dimers, he has contributed insightful articles utilizing data-driven models and simulations.
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