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Grizzlies vs. Rockets prediction: Houston to win, Kevin Durant projected for big game in Monday's NBA matchup [1/26/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Jason Bevilacqua, Head of Content and Communities
Get Memphis Grizzlies vs Houston Rockets predictions for NBA Monday.
The Houston Rockets will take on the Memphis Grizzlies in NBA action at Toyota Center on Monday, beginning at 8:00 PM ET.
Based on the latest simulations and today’s injury news, Dimers' advanced NBA model predicts the Rockets as the most likely winner of the Grizzlies vs. Rockets game.
This prediction follows the latest NBA Injury Report, which suggests the Rockets lineup will feature players like Kevin Durant, Amen Thompson and Alperen Sengun, while the Grizzlies will look to Jaren Jackson, Santi Aldama and Cedric Coward.
This article offers further insights into Monday's matchup, including an expanded look at the predicted score, best bets and player prop picks.
Grizzlies vs. Rockets prediction: Who will win and cover?
Using trusted machine learning and data, we have simulated the result of Monday's NBA game between the Grizzlies and Rockets 10,000 times as part of our NBA predictions coverage.
Our famous predictive model gives the Rockets a 79% chance of defeating the Grizzlies. Our predicted final score has the Rockets winning 117-107.
According to our model, the Grizzlies (+10.5) have a 55% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 226.5 points has a 51% chance of staying under.
Grizzlies vs. Rockets odds
We have sourced the best NBA odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Grizzlies | Rockets |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | +10.5 (-102) | -10.5 (-118) |
| Moneyline | +400 | -500 |
| Total | o226.5 (-110) | u226.5 (-110) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Grizzlies vs. Rockets picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Grizzlies +10.5 | -102 |
| Moneyline | Grizzlies | +400 |
| Total | Under 226.5 | -110 |
According to our best NBA bets for Monday, the top play to make on this game is Grizzlies +10.5 at the spread.
Grizzlies vs. Rockets player props
Betting on Memphis vs. Houston NBA prop bets? We have crunched the numbers to project how each team's leading players will perform at Toyota Center.
Jaren Jackson is expected to lead the Grizzlies with 18 points, 5 rebounds and 2 assists, while Kevin Durant is projected to have 27 points, 6 rebounds and 5 assists for the Rockets.
Check out our NBA player projections for a full range of projected box scores, including points, assists, rebounds and today's NBA first basket picks.
Grizzlies prediction
Our model's projected player stats for the Grizzlies are:
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | DFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaren Jackson | 18 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 34 |
| Santi Aldama | 14 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 29 |
| Cedric Coward | 13 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 28 |
| Cam Spencer | 13 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 31 |
| Jaylen Wells | 11 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 21 |
Rockets prediction
Projected points, rebounds, assists and three-pointers made for the Rockets:
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | DFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Durant | 27 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 49 |
| Amen Thompson | 19 | 8 | 6 | 0 | 44 |
| Alperen Sengun | 19 | 9 | 7 | 1 | 47 |
| Jabari Smith | 16 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 33 |
| Tari Eason | 13 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 30 |
Grizzlies vs. Rockets game-day updates and essential details
Monday's game between the Rockets and Grizzlies at Toyota Center is scheduled to start at 8:00 PM ET.
- Who: Memphis Grizzlies vs. Houston Rockets
- Date: Monday, January 26, 2026
- Time: 8:00 PM ET/5:00PM PT
- Venue: Toyota Center
Conclusion
We predict the Rockets, with a 79% win probability, will likely beat the Grizzlies on Monday, with Kevin Durant projected for a game-high 49 fantasy points.
AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Grizzlies vs. Rockets insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are sourced from up-to-date data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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Jason Bevilacqua, an expert in MLB, NHL, NBA, MLS, and NFL, delivers game previews, best bets, and props. Since 2020, as Head of Social and Community at Dimers, he has contributed insightful articles utilizing data-driven models and simulations.
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