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Grizzlies vs. Rockets Prediction, Picks and Odds
Our detailed prediction and analysis for the Grizzlies vs. Rockets NBA game on January 26, 2026 is featured below. Drawing from 10,000 game simulations, we provide expert picks, betting odds, and insights.
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99
:
108
Jan 27, 1AM Toyota Center
Jan 27, 1AM Toyota Center
In-Play ProbabilitiesIn-Play
Game PredictionsPre-Game
Best Bets | TEAM | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Grizzlies | 24 | 30 | 23 | 22 | 99 |
Rockets | 23 | 28 | 25 | 32 | 108 |
Live Probabilities
Spread
Over / Under
Moneyline
Win %
<1%
>99%
Win Probability
| TEAM | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Grizzlies | 24 | 30 | 23 | 22 | 99 |
Rockets | 23 | 28 | 25 | 32 | 108 |
Q4 1:32 Rockets makes three point jump shot
Q4 1:59 Grizzlies misses three point jump shot
Q4 2:06 Rockets misses two point jump shot
Q4 2:22 Rockets misses three point jump shot
Q4 2:29 Grizzlies misses two point jump shot
Q4 3:10 Rockets misses three point jump shot
Q4 4:12 Grizzlies makes two point jump shot
Q4 5:18 Grizzlies misses three point jump shot
Q4 5:53 Rockets makes three point jump shot
Q4 6:16 Grizzlies misses three point jump shot
Play by Play
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
ALL
Grizzlies turnover
+1
Tari Eason makes regular free throw 2 of 2
99-108
Grizzlies 60 second timeout
Rockets lineup change (Josh Okogie, Jabari Smith Jr., Amen Thompson, Kevin Durant, Tari Eason)
Rockets lineup change (Josh Okogie, Jabari Smith Jr., Amen Thompson, Tari Eason, Jae'Sean Tate)
Rockets lineup change (Josh Okogie, Jabari Smith Jr., Amen Thompson, Kevin Durant, Tari Eason)
Rockets lineup change (Josh Okogie, Jabari Smith Jr., Amen Thompson, Alperen Sengun, Jae'Sean Tate)
Rockets lineup change (Josh Okogie, Jabari Smith Jr., Amen Thompson, Alperen Sengun, Jae'Sean Tate)
Rockets lineup change (Josh Okogie, Jabari Smith Jr., Amen Thompson, Tari Eason, Jae'Sean Tate)
Cam Spencer offensive rebound
Rockets turnover
Rockets lineup change (Josh Okogie, Jabari Smith Jr., Amen Thompson, Alperen Sengun, Kevin Durant)
Rockets lineup change (Josh Okogie, Jabari Smith Jr., Amen Thompson, Kevin Durant, Tari Eason)
Grizzlies personal foul
Rockets lineup change (Reed Sheppard, Jabari Smith Jr., Amen Thompson, Alperen Sengun, Kevin Durant)
Grizzlies lineup change (GG Jackson, Cedric Coward, Jaren Jackson Jr., John Konchar, Santi Aldama)
GG Jackson offensive rebound
+3
Rockets makes three point jump shot
95-104
Jaylen Wells turnover (lost ball)
Grizzlies misses three point jump shot
Rockets misses two point jump shot
Josh Okogie offensive rebound
Rockets misses three point jump shot
Grizzlies misses two point jump shot
Cam Spencer defensive rebound
Rockets defensive rebound
Grizzlies personal foul
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
Rockets misses three point jump shot
Rockets turnover
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
+2
Grizzlies makes two point jump shot
93-99
Rockets personal foul
Grizzlies lineup change (Cam Spencer, Jaylen Wells, Jaren Jackson Jr., Santi Aldama, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope)
Alperen Sengun defensive rebound
Grizzlies misses three point jump shot
+1
Cam Spencer makes regular free throw 1 of 3
87-97
+1
Cam Spencer makes regular free throw 3 of 3
89-97
+3
Rockets makes three point jump shot
86-97
Grizzlies misses three point jump shot
+2
Rockets makes two point jump shot
84-92
Grizzlies lineup change (GG Jackson, Cam Spencer, Jaylen Wells, Santi Aldama, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope)
Rockets lineup change (Josh Okogie, Jabari Smith Jr., Amen Thompson, Alperen Sengun, Kevin Durant)
Vince Williams Jr. offensive rebound
+2
Rockets makes two point jump shot
82-90
Alperen Sengun offensive rebound
Rockets turnover
Cedric Coward offensive rebound
+2
Grizzlies makes two point jump shot
81-88
+1
Cedric Coward makes regular free throw 1 of 1
82-88
Grizzlies lineup change (GG Jackson, Cedric Coward, Jaylen Wells, Jaren Jackson Jr., Vince Williams Jr.)
Rockets lineup change (Josh Okogie, Jabari Smith Jr., Amen Thompson, Alperen Sengun, Tari Eason)
Grizzlies lineup change (GG Jackson, Cedric Coward, Jaylen Wells, Jaren Jackson Jr., Vince Williams Jr.)
Grizzlies misses two point jump shot
+3
Rockets makes three point jump shot
79-88
Josh Okogie defensive rebound
+2
Rockets makes two point jump shot
79-85
Grizzlies lineup change (GG Jackson, Cam Spencer, Cedric Coward, Jaren Jackson Jr., Vince Williams Jr.)
+2
Rockets makes two point jump shot
79-83
Rockets turnover
Josh Okogie defensive rebound
Josh Okogie offensive rebound
Rockets misses two point jump shot
Grizzlies personal foul
+2
Rockets makes two point jump shot
77-78
Alperen Sengun offensive rebound
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
Josh Okogie defensive rebound
Rockets misses three point jump shot
End of 3rd Quarter.
Rockets lineup change (Josh Okogie, Amen Thompson, Alperen Sengun, Tari Eason, Dorian Finney-Smith)
Grizzlies personal foul
+1
Kevin Durant makes regular free throw 1 of 2
77-75
Grizzlies lineup change (GG Jackson, Cam Spencer, Cedric Coward, Jaren Jackson Jr., Vince Williams Jr.)
Grizzlies misses three point jump shot
+3
Kevin Durant makes three point jump shot
77-74
Amen Thompson offensive rebound
Rockets misses two point jump shot
Grizzlies turnover
Jabari Smith Jr. personal foul
+1
Jabari Smith Jr. makes regular free throw 1 of 2
77-70
+1
Jabari Smith Jr. makes regular free throw 2 of 2
77-71
Grizzlies misses two point jump shot
Rockets turnover
Grizzlies misses three point jump shot
+3
Grizzlies makes three point jump shot
77-69
+2
Rockets makes two point jump shot
74-69
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
Grizzlies lineup change (Olivier-Maxence Prosper, Cedric Coward, Jaren Jackson Jr., John Konchar, Vince Williams Jr.)
Grizzlies misses two point jump shot
Grizzlies personal foul
Rockets offensive rebound
Alperen Sengun offensive rebound
+2
Grizzlies makes two point jump shot
74-66
Jae'Sean Tate defensive rebound
Grizzlies misses two point jump shot
Grizzlies personal foul
+1
Olivier-Maxence Prosper makes regular free throw 2 of 2
72-62
Rockets lineup change (Reed Sheppard, Jabari Smith Jr., Alperen Sengun, Kevin Durant, Jae'Sean Tate)
Rockets turnover
Rockets misses three point jump shot
Grizzlies misses two point jump shot
Rockets personal foul
Rockets 60 second timeout
Grizzlies misses two point jump shot
Grizzlies misses three point jump shot
+2
Grizzlies makes two point jump shot
68-60
+2
Rockets makes two point jump shot
66-60
GG Jackson defensive rebound
Amen Thompson offensive rebound
Grizzlies turnover
Grizzlies lineup change (GG Jackson, Cam Spencer, Jaylen Wells, Santi Aldama, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope)
+2
Rockets makes two point jump shot
63-58
+3
Grizzlies makes three point jump shot
63-56
Rockets misses three point jump shot
Rockets turnover
Grizzlies turnover
Rockets misses two point jump shot
Rockets offensive rebound
Tari Eason defensive rebound
Jaylen Wells offensive rebound
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
+2
Rockets makes two point jump shot
58-56
Grizzlies turnover
Grizzlies misses two point jump shot
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
Santi Aldama defensive rebound
Grizzlies personal foul
+1
Kevin Durant makes regular free throw 1 of 2
58-54
Grizzlies personal foul
+2
Rockets makes two point jump shot
56-53
Amen Thompson defensive rebound
Grizzlies misses three point jump shot
Rockets misses three point jump shot
Tari Eason offensive rebound
+2
Grizzlies makes two point jump shot
56-51
Jabari Smith Jr. defensive rebound
Rockets offensive rebound
Rockets lineup change (Jabari Smith Jr., Amen Thompson, Alperen Sengun, Kevin Durant, Tari Eason)
Rockets lineup change (Josh Okogie, Amen Thompson, Alperen Sengun, Kevin Durant, Tari Eason)
+1
Kevin Durant makes regular free throw 2 of 2
54-51
Amen Thompson offensive rebound
+3
Rockets makes three point jump shot
51-49
+2
Grizzlies makes two point jump shot
51-46
Dorian Finney-Smith offensive rebound
Kevin Durant offensive rebound
Reed Sheppard defensive rebound
+3
Rockets makes three point jump shot
49-46
Rockets personal foul
+1
Jaylen Wells makes regular free throw 1 of 1
49-43
Amen Thompson defensive goaltending violation
Rockets misses three point jump shot
Jabari Smith Jr. defensive rebound
Rockets misses two point jump shot
Grizzlies misses two point jump shot
Rockets lineup change (Reed Sheppard, Jabari Smith Jr., Amen Thompson, Kevin Durant, Dorian Finney-Smith)
Rockets personal foul
+1
Santi Aldama makes regular free throw 1 of 3
43-43
+1
Santi Aldama makes regular free throw 2 of 3
44-43
Grizzlies offensive rebound
Instant replay
Grizzlies lineup change (Cam Spencer, Cedric Coward, Jaylen Wells, Jaren Jackson Jr., Santi Aldama)
Rockets violation
Alperen Sengun defensive rebound
+2
Grizzlies makes two point jump shot
42-39
Grizzlies personal foul
+1
Amen Thompson makes regular free throw 2 of 2
40-39
Grizzlies misses two point jump shot
+2
Rockets makes two point jump shot
40-37
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
Grizzlies misses three point jump shot
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope offensive rebound
Santi Aldama defensive rebound
+2
Rockets makes two point jump shot
38-35
Grizzlies turnover
Jaylen Wells defensive rebound
Rockets lineup change (Josh Okogie, Jabari Smith Jr., Amen Thompson, Alperen Sengun, Tari Eason)
Vince Williams Jr. offensive rebound
Grizzlies misses three point jump shot
Rockets misses three point jump shot
+2
Rockets makes two point jump shot
36-33
Rockets turnover
GG Jackson offensive rebound
Rockets personal foul
Rockets lineup change (Josh Okogie, Jabari Smith Jr., Alperen Sengun, Kevin Durant, Tari Eason)
+1
GG Jackson makes regular free throw 1 of 1
34-31
Rockets turnover
Grizzlies misses two point jump shot
+3
Grizzlies makes three point jump shot
31-31
Jaren Jackson Jr. offensive rebound
Grizzlies misses two point jump shot
Rockets lineup change (Jabari Smith Jr., Amen Thompson, Kevin Durant, Clint Capela, Tari Eason)
Grizzlies misses three point jump shot
Grizzlies turnover
+2
Rockets makes two point jump shot
28-27
Kevin Durant offensive rebound
Rockets misses two point jump shot
John Konchar defensive rebound
Vince Williams Jr. offensive rebound
Grizzlies misses two point jump shot
Vince Williams Jr. defensive rebound
Rockets offensive rebound
Kevin Durant defensive rebound
+2
Rockets makes two point jump shot
24-25
Rockets misses two point jump shot
Grizzlies personal foul
Clint Capela defensive rebound
John Konchar offensive rebound
Grizzlies misses two point jump shot
Rockets offensive rebound
End of 1st Quarter.
Grizzlies lineup change (GG Jackson, Cedric Coward, Jaren Jackson Jr., John Konchar, Vince Williams Jr.)
Rockets misses three point jump shot
Clint Capela offensive rebound
Rockets misses three point jump shot
Amen Thompson defensive rebound
Cedric Coward defensive rebound
Rockets misses three point jump shot
Amen Thompson offensive rebound
Clint Capela defensive rebound
+3
Rockets makes three point jump shot
21-23
+3
Grizzlies makes three point jump shot
19-20
Rockets misses two point jump shot
Grizzlies misses two point jump shot
Rockets turnover
Rockets lineup change (Reed Sheppard, Amen Thompson, Clint Capela, Tari Eason, Dorian Finney-Smith)
Rockets personal foul
GG Jackson misses regular free throw 1 of 2
+1
GG Jackson makes regular free throw 2 of 2
16-20
Grizzlies misses two point jump shot
Grizzlies turnover
Vince Williams Jr. offensive rebound
Grizzlies misses three point jump shot
Rockets misses three point jump shot
Grizzlies misses two point jump shot
Grizzlies misses two point jump shot
Grizzlies defensive rebound
Grizzlies misses three point jump shot
Santi Aldama defensive rebound
Rockets misses two point jump shot
Cam Spencer offensive rebound
Grizzlies misses two point jump shot
Grizzlies personal foul
+1
Kevin Durant makes regular free throw 1 of 2
11-17
Rockets lineup change (Josh Okogie, Reed Sheppard, Jabari Smith Jr., Alperen Sengun, Kevin Durant)
GG Jackson defensive rebound
+2
Grizzlies makes two point jump shot
9-16
Rockets turnover
Kevin Durant defensive rebound
+2
Rockets makes two point jump shot
7-16
+1
Jaylen Wells makes regular free throw 2 of 2
7-14
+2
Rockets makes two point jump shot
5-14
Rockets misses two point jump shot
Rockets misses two point jump shot
Grizzlies misses two point jump shot
Grizzlies misses two point jump shot
Grizzlies misses two point jump shot
Grizzlies misses three point jump shot
Cedric Coward defensive rebound
+2
Rockets makes two point jump shot
5-12
Grizzlies personal foul
+2
Grizzlies makes two point jump shot
5-10
Rockets misses three point jump shot
Grizzlies misses three point jump shot
Rockets misses three point jump shot
Grizzlies misses two point jump shot
Santi Aldama defensive rebound
+2
Grizzlies makes two point jump shot
3-10
+2
Rockets makes two point jump shot
1-10
Rockets personal foul
Cedric Coward misses regular free throw 1 of 2
+1
Cedric Coward makes regular free throw 2 of 2
1-8
Kevin Durant defensive rebound
+2
Rockets makes two point jump shot
0-5
Grizzlies misses three point jump shot
Kevin Durant defensive rebound
Rockets turnover
Rockets lineup change (Jabari Smith Jr., Amen Thompson, Alperen Sengun, Kevin Durant, Tari Eason)
Jaren Jackson Jr. vs. Alperen Sengun (Jabari Smith Jr. gains possession)
Box Score
Player Stats
Team Stats
| Pos | Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | 24 | C. Spencer | 5 | 5 | 14 |
| F | 23 | C. Coward | 8 | 7 | 2 |
| F | 45 | G. Jackson | 14 | 3 | 0 |
| C | 7 | S. Aldama | 17 | 7 | 2 |
| F | 8 | J. Jackson Jr. | 17 | 7 | 1 |
| Pos | Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| F | 10 | J. Smith Jr. | 8 | 8 | 2 |
| F | 7 | K. Durant | 33 | 8 | 2 |
| G | 1 | A. Thompson | 8 | 8 | 14 |
| G | 17 | T. Eason | 17 | 7 | 0 |
| G | 20 | J. Okogie | 2 | 7 | 2 |
Game Prediction Article
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Grizzlies vs. Rockets: Detailed Breakdown
Matchup Overview
- Teams: Grizzlies vs. Rockets
- Date: Monday, January 26, 2026
- Time: 8:00 PM ET
- Venue: Toyota Center
Current Betting Odds
- Spread: Rockets favored at -10.5
- Total (Over/Under): 225.5
- Moneyline Odds: Grizzlies +390, Rockets -480
Dimers' Win Probabilities
- Grizzlies: 21%
- Rockets: 79%
Dimers' predictive model, renowned for its accuracy, assesses each team's chances by simulating the outcome of the game 10,000 times. This method provides a precise and unbiased view.
Projected Final Score
Our predicted final score for this NBA matchup is Grizzlies 107-117 Rockets.
This prediction is based on each team's average score following 10,000 game simulations.
Our Prediction: Who Wins?
After extensive simulations, our model gives the Grizzlies a win probability of 21%, while the Rockets have a win probability of 79%. Discover the best spread, over/under, and moneyline odds for the game on this page.
Summary
According to our analysis, the Rockets are more likely to beat the Grizzlies in the NBA game at Toyota Center on Tuesday. Discover the best spread, over/under and moneyline odds, picks and probabilities for the game on this page.
Our Grizzlies vs. Rockets predictions, based on sophisticated simulations and current data, guide you in making informed decisions. Remember to bet responsibly and within your financial limits.
For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.
When you click or tap on a link on Dimers that goes to a third-party website that we have a commercial relationship with (such as a sportsbook), we may receive a referral fee.
For further insights, explore our expert NBA predictions and the best NBA bets today, while our in-depth analysis includes NBA props, NBA futures, NBA odds, and the latest NBA news.
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