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NBA first basket picks and predictions for Monday, January 26, 2026
Updated: | First published:
Written by Damien Souness, Chief Innovation Officer
Get first basket predictions today driven by expert analysis of NBA slate on 1/26.
Our NBA first basket picks and predictions for today—Monday, January 26, 2026—are live with the Warriors' Stephen Curry projected as the most likely player to score first.
These projections draw on detailed first basket stats, including player efficiency, shot frequency, and expected starting lineups, forming part of our daily NBA player projections.
Curry, Anthony Edwards and Luka Doncic lead Monday’s most likely first basket scorers, while we also highlight tonight's top first basket value picks by comparing real-time odds to model-generated probabilities.
NBA first basket predictions tonight (January 26, 2026)
| Player | Team | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Stephen Curry | Warriors | 16.0% |
| Anthony Edwards | Timberwolves | 15.8% |
| Luka Doncic | Lakers | 15.2% |
| Jaylen Brown | Celtics | 15.2% |
| Kevin Durant | Rockets | 14.4% |
| Donovan Mitchell | Cavaliers | 14.0% |
| Shaedon Sharpe | Trail Blazers | 13.7% |
| LeBron James | Lakers | 13.7% |
| Alperen Sengun | Rockets | 13.1% |
| Nikola Vucevic | Bulls | 12.8% |
| Cedric Coward | Grizzlies | 12.4% |
| Deni Avdija | Trail Blazers | 12.3% |
| Evan Mobley | Cavaliers | 12.1% |
| Paolo Banchero | Magic | 11.9% |
| Julius Randle | Timberwolves | 11.4% |
NBA first basket picks today (January 26, 2026)
| Player | Team | Edge | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Suggs | Magic | 3.6% | +1200 | 11.3% |
| Cedric Coward | Grizzlies | 1.8% | +850 | 12.3% |
| Matas Buzelis | Bulls | 1.7% | +1000 | 10.8% |
| Nikola Vucevic | Bulls | 1.7% | +800 | 12.8% |
| Sam Hauser | Celtics | 1.7% | +1200 | 9.4% |
| Coby White | Bulls | 1.7% | +1000 | 10.8% |
| Jaylon Tyson | Cavaliers | 1.4% | +1000 | 10.5% |
| Brandin Podziemski | Warriors | 1.2% | +900 | 11.2% |
| Moses Moody | Warriors | 0.9% | +1000 | 10.0% |
| Josh Giddey | Bulls | 0.7% | +1000 | 9.7% |
| Stephen Curry | Warriors | 0.6% | +550 | 16.0% |
| Jrue Holiday | Trail Blazers | 0.5% | +950 | 10.0% |
Edges represent the difference between model probability and implied odds.
For more insights on prop markets and value plays across the league, explore our full list of NBA prop bets for 1/26.
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Conclusion: Betting on today's NBA first basket
For Monday, January 26, 2026, Stephen Curry, Anthony Edwards and Luka Doncic lead our first basket projections, while Jalen Suggs shapes as the strongest value play at +1200. All picks and predictions are derived from Dimers’ NBA first basket model.
For guidance on safer wagering habits, explore our Responsible Gambling resources.
Damien Souness leverages over 15 years of experience to create engaging content focused on sports, online gaming and wagering. As Chief Innovation Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, the parent company of Dimers, he offers strategic insights and innovative solutions to enhance the player experience.
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