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Dolphins vs. Melbourne Storm prediction: Dolphins favored to win Friday's NRL Round 9 matchup [5/1/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Damien Souness, Chief Innovation Officer
Get Dolphins vs Melbourne Storm predictions for NRL Friday.
NRL action continues on Friday at 6:00 AM ET as the Melbourne Storm lock horns with the Dolphins at Suncorp Stadium.
Based on updated simulations, Dimers' advanced NRL model projects the Dolphins as the most likely winner of the Storm vs. Dolphins game.
This article offers further insights into Friday's matchup, including best bets and picks.
Dolphins vs. Storm prediction: Who will win Round 9 game?
Using innovative machine learning and data, we have simulated the result of Friday's NRL game between the Storm and Dolphins, forming part of our NRL predictions coverage.
Our leading predictive model currently gives the Dolphins a 65% chance of defeating the Storm.
According to our model, the Dolphins (-3.5) have a 55% chance of covering the spread, while the 53.5-point over/under has a 62% chance of staying under.
Storm vs. Dolphins odds
We have researched the best NRL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Storm | Dolphins |
|---|---|---|
| H2H (Moneyline) | +128 | -161 |
| Line (Spread) | +3.5 (-105) | -3.5 (-120) |
| Total | o53.5 (-115) | u53.5 (-110) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Storm vs. Dolphins picks and best bet
After matching our probabilities against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Dolphins -3.5 | bet_rivers_in-120 |
| Moneyline | Dolphins | bet_rivers_in-161 |
| Total | Under 53.5 | -110 |
According to our NRL best bets, the top play to make on this game is Under 53.5 total points.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Dolphins vs. Storm game-day updates and essential details
Friday's Australian rugby league game between the Dolphins and Storm at Suncorp Stadium is scheduled to commence at 6:00 AM ET.
- Who: Melbourne Storm vs. Dolphins
- Date: Friday, May 1, 2026
- Time: 6:00 AM ET/3:00AM PT
- Venue: Suncorp Stadium
The NRL is available to bet on in the US through all major sportsbooks, with there even being games played in Vegas each season as of 2024.
Conclusion
We predict the Dolphins, with a 65% win probability, will likely beat the Storm in Friday's NRL matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
Damien Souness leverages over 15 years of experience to create engaging content focused on sports, online gaming and wagering. As Chief Innovation Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, the parent company of Dimers, he offers strategic insights and innovative solutions to enhance the player experience.
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