March Madness Predictions: Expert Rankings Reveal The Best Contenders and Upset Picks

Sweet, sweet March! The college basketball season is accelerating towards the 2025 NCAAB Basketball Tournament affectionately known as "March Madness" and fans and bettors are already gearing up for the nonstop action.

Perhaps you've been cramming every bit of information you can to ensure your brackets are tailor-made to perfections, or simply waiting it out until the field is finalized on Selection Sunday. Either way, the tournament will be here before we know it.

The "win or go home" nature of every single game is what makes this tournament stand in a tier all its own - one bad game, one bad possession, one missed basket - any bit of bad luck and your team gets sent packing.

That's what makes identifying how each team stacks up against any possible opponent that much more important - a great team could have a critical flaw exposed by an unsuspecting Cinderella squad, busting your entire bracket and nuking your futures bets - unless you were prepared for that scenario - that's where Dimers Pro comes in.

Bet on the NCAAB Tournament with Dimers Pro

Don't miss a single beat of the NCAAB Basketball Tournament in March with our full suite of Dimers Pro betting tools.

The best CBB Bets, valuable CBB Player Props, college basketball predictions, player prop trends, bracket insights and more, all at your fingertips from the First Four to the final buzzer of the Championship Game.

With proven results and reliable data-backed insights, Dimers Pro gives you unrivaled access to every bet, every game, every day - all for less than $1/day.

In addition to our Dimers Pro offerings, we'll be highlighting March Madness strategies all the way up to Selection Sunday and beyond.

For this look at the tournament field, we've taken our Top 25 potential NCAAB Tournament champions based on our model's predicted probability for each to win and stacked them up against three key metrics - Point Differential, Defensive Efficiency and NET Ranking (the NCAA gauge for the quality of a team's performances).

It's easy enough to see Auburn's 27-2 record and know they're good - but exactly how good? Are they blowing teams away and when they lose (rarely), is it close or one-sided? Plus, we want to know how good a team's opponents are - a high scoring margin doesn't always tell the full story.

Similarly, we might find a team with a middling record, but some eye-raising upside in defensive efficiency, posing a threat to unsuspecting teams.

Ranked: The Top 25 March Madness Contenders

As mentioned, we're comparing our Top 25 projected win probabilities with each team's ranking in three other categories - Point Differential, Defensive Efficiency and NET Ranking.

Since we're just comparing rankings, we'll keep our formula simple and weigh each category evenly, taking the average ranking from all four categories (including Dimers' prediction) and create our Contender Score, which is how you'll find these teams sorted.

This can give you an idea of how much one or two categories affect any given team's overall landing spot - think of it like a penalty/reward system that shuffles the rankings based on performance and predictions.

Each team's individual category rank will be found alongside their value in that category.

Which Teams can Win March Madness?

As March Madness approaches, the Contender Score rankings highlight clear frontrunners with strong metrics across the board.

However, not all highly ranked teams are built the same. Some favorites show weaknesses, particularly in defensive efficiency, which lowers their Contender Scores despite strong overall probabilities. 

Beyond the favorites, a few longshots are worth watching. Strong defense and point differentials suggest these dark horses could surprise in March.

Now that we've got this information sorted and our teams ranked, let's look at a few who stand out for one reason or another.

March Madness Contenders

At the top of the Contender Score rankings, we some familiar faces like Duke, Houston Florida, and Auburn, though their CS puts them at sixth as opposed to their top overall probability.

Duke stands out right away as their near lead in each category, including the highest point differential, puts them well above every team in Contender Score. As our model's second-highest probability, just .5% below Auburn, Cooper Flagg and Duke look like the true number one.

Houston is another top of the board standout, coming at at second with a 3.25 Contender Score. First in defensive efficiency and third in our own probabilities, the Cougars are once again a threat to win it all and offering fair odds of +1215 according to our model, though you can't find them longer than +850.

Finally, Florida round out the top of the board with their 6.25 Contender Score. Their score ranking doesn't drift far from their existing elite level in the other categories, but it's a sign that getting value early is key. While the books were asleep on Florida at +2000, Dimers recommended them as a bet to win the title based purely on value - they're now down to just +950, with our fair price closer to +1500.

March Madness Pretenders

You'll find the Tigers atop most lists ahead of March Madness, but If you're looking for Auburn in the Top 5 of these rankings, you're one spot too high.

Is it fair to call a team with this much talent (and our model's favorite) a pretender? It is if you're concerned about their defensive ranking stacked up against the other elite teams. They're 34th-ranked defensive efficiency pulls them down to sixth with a Contender Score of 10, putting them in he realm of teams with a much lower NET ranking like St John's and Maryland (more on them shortly). Combined with their odds of +350, our model doesn't say they can't win, but a mid-round upset could be in play and you should be looking for value elsewhere.

On the other side of the rivalry, Alabama is another team the Contender Score puts lower than they might seem on the surface. Our fifth-highest probability team to win it all drops way down to being ranked 23rd due to a very exploitable defensive game and tight point differential. Losing three of their past five games against ranked opponents, including Missouri, Tennessee and Auburn (all higher CS scores) makes them look like a fade.

March Madness Longshots

These teams won't look like Cinderellas in the bracket whey they get their regional seed so we won't label them as such, but when stacked up against the full field, they're the ones with longer odds you have to strongly consider.

St John's is feeling the Rick Pitino effect. Having their best season in ages, the Red Storm are a threat to go all the way. A top 10 title probability from our model and the second-best defensive efficiency puts them as a team that can punch above their weight implied by the +2500 odds. Value isn't easy to come by (unless you bet them when we said to at +4500), but their 11.5 Contender Score puts them right there with the best. A tenacious defense will be asked to step up to the task against top-ranked teams, something they haven't done much of this season.

Right there with them are Maryland with an equal Contender Score of 11.5. The Terrapins are another contender bolstered by their elite defensive play leading to their top 10 point differential among all NCAA teams. We give them a 1.3% probability to win, which won't get you any value as they're priced at +5000, but when you compare their 8th-ranked contender score to the odds of those teams at the bottom like Alabama at +1300 who we've singled out as a "pretender" and Kentucky (+5000) who have shown significant weaknesses, you see the difference.

Dimers' 2025 March Madness Betting Resources

• CBB Predictions: Our data-backed previews for every game, every day
• CBB Best Bets: Our Top Picks for every individual matchup
• Best CBB Props: Player edges and projections from our predictive analytics model
• CBB Futures Odds: Who will win the 2025 March Madness Tournament?
• CBB Betting News: The latest promos, storylines and more around the league

Responsible Gambling

Remember to please gamble responsibly. If you sense that you're taking your luck too far, know when to call it quits and don't be afraid to seek assistance. Keep in mind that gambling is all about having a fantastic experience! If you or someone you know is grappling with gambling issues, reach out to 1-800-GAMBLER for crisis counseling and support.