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Louisville vs. SMU prediction: Louisville favored to win men's college basketball matchup [2/17/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Dave Garofolo, Content Producer
Get Louisville vs SMU predictions for college basketball Tuesday.
SMU will square off with Louisville in men's college basketball action at Moody Coliseum on Tuesday, starting at 7:00 PM ET.
Based on updated simulation results, Dimers' advanced college basketball model predicts Louisville as the most likely winner of the Louisville vs. SMU game.
This article offers a closer look at Tuesday's matchup, including an expanded look at the predicted score, best bets and picks.
Louisville vs. SMU prediction: Who will win and cover?
Using trusted machine learning and data analysis, we have simulated the outcome of Tuesday's NCAA basketball matchup between Louisville and SMU 10,000 times as part of our men's college basketball predictions coverage.
Our leading predictive model gives Louisville a 65% chance of beating SMU. Our predicted final score has Louisville winning 82-78.
According to our model, Louisville (-4.5) has a 56% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 167.5 points has a 54% chance of staying under.
Louisville vs. SMU odds
We have researched the best men's college basketball odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Louisville | SMU |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | -4.5 (-108) | +4.5 (-112) |
| Moneyline | -190 | +164 |
| Total | o167.5 (-115) | u167.5 (-105) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Louisville vs. SMU picks and best bet
After matching our probabilities against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Louisville -4.5 | -108 |
| Moneyline | Louisville | -190 |
| Total | Under 167.5 | -105 |
According to our best men's college basketball bets, the top play to make on this game is Louisville -4.5 at the spread.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Louisville vs. SMU game-day updates and essential details
Tuesday's men's college basketball game between SMU and Louisville at Moody Coliseum is scheduled to begin at 7:00 PM ET.
- Who: Louisville vs. SMU
- Date: Tuesday, February 17, 2026
- Time: 7:00 PM ET/4:00PM PT
- Venue: Moody Coliseum
Conclusion
We predict Louisville, with a 65% win probability, will likely beat SMU on Tuesday.
AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Louisville vs. SMU insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are drawn from the latest data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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Dave Garofolo uses sophisticated AI-driven analytics to make predictions and evaluate player performances in the NBA, MLB, NFL, NHL, NCAAM, and PGA TOUR tournaments, crafting insightful game and prop previews.
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