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Rams vs. Falcons prediction: Why Rams are favored to win ‘MNF’ Week 17 [2025]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Mac Douglass, Senior Editor
Get Los Angeles Rams vs Atlanta Falcons predictions for NFL Monday.
The Atlanta Falcons will square off with the favored Los Angeles Rams in NFL Week 17 action at Mercedes-Benz Stadium on Monday, commencing at 8:15 PM ET.
Based on updated simulations, Dimers' proven NFL model predicts the Rams as the most likely winner of the Rams vs. Falcons game.
This article offers a closer look at this week's matchup, including projected touchdown scorers, best bets and player prop picks.
Rams vs. Falcons prediction: Who will win ‘Monday Night Football’?
Since our Rams-Falcons predictions earlier in the week, we have simulated the outcome of Monday's NFL game between the Rams and Falcons 10,000 times as part of our NFL predictions coverage.
Our leading predictive model currently gives the Rams a 73% chance of beating the Falcons in Week 17 of the NFL season. Our predicted final score has the Rams winning 27-20.
According to our model, the Falcons (+7) have a 54% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 48.5 points has an equal 50-50 chance of hitting.
To see win probabilities for every matchup this week, check out our expert NFL Week 17 straight up picks.
Rams vs. Falcons odds
We have sourced the best NFL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Rams | Falcons |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | -7 (-115) | +7 (-105) |
| Moneyline | -350 | +300 |
| Total | o48.5 (-114) | u48.5 (-105) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Rams vs. Falcons picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Falcons +7 | -105 |
| Moneyline | Falcons | +300 |
| Total | Under 48.5 | -105 |
According to our NFL best bets, the top play to make on this game is Falcons +7 at the spread.
Rams vs. Falcons TD scorers
Who will score a touchdown in Rams vs. Falcons?
According to our list of touchdown scorer predictions for MNF, Puka Nacua is most likely to score an anytime TD in Rams vs. Falcons.
Our projections give Nacua a 51.5% chance of scoring a TD at Mercedes-Benz Stadium, while the wide receiver is an 11.8% chance of scoring the first touchdown the game.
Anytime touchdown scorer predictions
Los Angeles Rams
| Player | Anytime TD Probability |
|---|---|
| Puka Nacua (WR) | 51.5% |
| Kyren Williams (RB) | 49.6% |
| Colby Parkinson (TE) | 37.4% |
| Blake Corum (RB) | 36.9% |
| Konata Mumpfield (WR) | 21.8% |
Atlanta Falcons
| Player | Anytime TD Probability |
|---|---|
| Bijan Robinson (RB) | 48.7% |
| Drake London (WR) | 44.8% |
| Tyler Allgeier (RB) | 31.8% |
| Kyle Pitts (TE) | 30.9% |
| Darnell Mooney (WR) | 19.8% |
First touchdown scorer predictions
Los Angeles Rams
| Player | First TD Probability |
|---|---|
| Puka Nacua (WR) | 11.8% |
| Kyren Williams (RB) | 11.2% |
| Colby Parkinson (TE) | 7.6% |
| Blake Corum (RB) | 7.5% |
| Konata Mumpfield (WR) | 4.0% |
Atlanta Falcons
| Player | First TD Probability |
|---|---|
| Bijan Robinson (RB) | 10.8% |
| Drake London (WR) | 9.7% |
| Tyler Allgeier (RB) | 6.2% |
| Kyle Pitts (TE) | 6.0% |
| Darnell Mooney (WR) | 3.6% |
Rams vs Falcons player props
Discover our predictions for the players likely to lead in passing, rushing and receiving yards for both the Rams and Falcons. Head to our NFL player projections page now to access a full list of player prop projections for every offensive player in this matchup and all other Week 17 games.
Quarterbacks
Of the starting quarterbacks, the Rams' Matthew Stafford is projected to have a big game with 273 passing yards. The Falcons' Kirk Cousins is expected to throw for 230 yards.
| Player | Proj. Pass Yards |
|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford (LA) | 273 |
| Kirk Cousins (ATL) | 230 |
Rams rushing
| Player | Proj. Rush Yards |
|---|---|
| Kyren Williams | 69 |
| Blake Corum | 50 |
| Puka Nacua | 3 |
Falcons rushing
| Player | Proj. Rush Yards |
|---|---|
| Bijan Robinson | 79 |
| Tyler Allgeier | 29 |
| Kirk Cousins | 3 |
Rams receiving
| Player | Proj. Rec. Yards |
|---|---|
| Puka Nacua | 114 |
| Colby Parkinson | 38 |
| Konata Mumpfield | 31 |
| Terrance Ferguson | 27 |
| Davis Allen | 21 |
Falcons receiving
| Player | Proj. Rec. Yards |
|---|---|
| Drake London | 73 |
| Kyle Pitts | 53 |
| Bijan Robinson | 42 |
| Darnell Mooney | 32 |
| David Sills | 15 |
Rams vs. Falcons game-day updates and essential details
The NFL Week 17 action between the Falcons and Rams at Mercedes-Benz Stadium is scheduled to start at 8:15 PM ET.
- Who: Los Angeles Rams vs. Atlanta Falcons
- Date: Monday, December 29, 2025
- Time: 8:15 PM ET/5:15PM PT
- Venue: Mercedes-Benz Stadium
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Conclusion
We predict the Rams, with a 73% win probability, will likely beat the Falcons in Week 17 of the NFL season.
AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Rams vs. Falcons insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are drawn from up-to-date data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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Mac Douglass specializes in NFL previews for the NFC South and NFC East, MLB best bets, Formula 1 race previews, and professional tennis insights. Combining predictive simulations and data-driven sports analysis, Mac provides in-depth content to elevate the betting experience for sports fans.
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