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Chargers vs. Patriots prediction: New England favored to win Wild Card game [2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Dave Garofolo, Content Producer
Get Los Angeles Chargers vs New England Patriots predictions for NFL Sunday.
The New England Patriots and Los Angeles Chargers are scheduled to meet in the Wild Card round of the NFL Playoffs at Gillette Stadium on Sunday, with kickoff at 8:15 PM ET.
Based on updated simulation results, Dimers' advanced NFL model predicts the Patriots as the most likely winner of the Chargers vs. Patriots game.
This article offers an expanded analysis of Sunday's matchup, including projected touchdown scorers, best bets and player prop picks.
Chargers vs. Patriots prediction: Who will win ‘Sunday Night Football’?
Since our Chargers-Patriots predictions earlier in the week, we have simulated the outcome of Sunday's NFL matchup between the Chargers and Patriots 10,000 times as part of our NFL predictions coverage.
Our independent predictive model currently gives the Patriots a 63% chance of beating the Chargers. Our predicted final score has the Patriots winning 24-21.
According to our model, the bookies have got it right, and the Chargers and Patriots each have a 50% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 45.5 points also has an equal 50-50 chance of hitting.
To see win probabilities for every matchup this week, check out our expert NFL Week 19 straight up picks.
Chargers vs. Patriots odds
We have sourced the best NFL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Chargers | Patriots |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | +3.5 (-105) | -3.5 (-105) |
| Moneyline | +170 | -198 |
| Total | o45.5 (-106) | u45.5 (-110) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Chargers vs. Patriots picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Chargers +3.5 | -105 |
| Moneyline | Chargers | +170 |
| Total | Over 45.5 | -106 |
According to our NFL best bets, the top play to make on this game is Chargers to win.
Chargers vs. Patriots TD scorers
Who will score a touchdown in Chargers vs. Patriots?
According to our list of touchdown scorer predictions for Week 19, TreVeyon Henderson is most likely to score an anytime TD in Chargers vs. Patriots.
Our projections give Henderson a 47.8% chance of getting in for six at Gillette Stadium, while the running back is a 10.2% chance of scoring the first touchdown the game.
Anytime touchdown scorer predictions
Los Angeles Chargers
| Player | Anytime TD Probability |
|---|---|
| Omarion Hampton (RB) | 44.4% |
| Quentin Johnston (WR) | 34.9% |
| Ladd McConkey (WR) | 34.7% |
| Keenan Allen (WR) | 29.1% |
| Oronde Gadsden (TE) | 20.4% |
New England Patriots
| Player | Anytime TD Probability |
|---|---|
| TreVeyon Henderson (RB) | 47.8% |
| Rhamondre Stevenson (RB) | 44.7% |
| Hunter Henry (TE) | 33.1% |
| Stefon Diggs (WR) | 30.4% |
| Drake Maye (QB) | 28.0% |
First touchdown scorer predictions
Los Angeles Chargers
| Player | First TD Probability |
|---|---|
| Omarion Hampton (RB) | 9.5% |
| Quentin Johnston (WR) | 6.9% |
| Ladd McConkey (WR) | 6.9% |
| Keenan Allen (WR) | 5.5% |
| Oronde Gadsden (TE) | 3.7% |
New England Patriots
| Player | First TD Probability |
|---|---|
| TreVeyon Henderson (RB) | 10.2% |
| Rhamondre Stevenson (RB) | 9.3% |
| Hunter Henry (TE) | 6.3% |
| Stefon Diggs (WR) | 5.7% |
| Drake Maye (QB) | 5.2% |
Chargers vs Patriots player props
Discover our predictions for the players likely to lead in passing, rushing and receiving yards for both the Chargers and Patriots. Head to our NFL player projections page now to access a full list of player prop projections for every offensive player in this matchup and all other Week 19 games.
Quarterbacks
Of the starting quarterbacks, the Chargers' Justin Herbert is projected for 228 passing yards, while the Patriots' Drake Maye is expected to throw for 246 yards.
| Player | Proj. Pass Yards |
|---|---|
| Justin Herbert (LAC) | 228 |
| Drake Maye (NE) | 246 |
Chargers rushing
| Player | Proj. Rush Yards |
|---|---|
| Omarion Hampton | 49 |
| Kimani Vidal | 33 |
| Justin Herbert | 32 |
Patriots rushing
| Player | Proj. Rush Yards |
|---|---|
| TreVeyon Henderson | 53 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 39 |
| Drake Maye | 28 |
Chargers receiving
| Player | Proj. Rec. Yards |
|---|---|
| Ladd McConkey | 47 |
| Quentin Johnston | 42 |
| Keenan Allen | 40 |
| Oronde Gadsden | 34 |
| Tre' Harris | 24 |
Patriots receiving
| Player | Proj. Rec. Yards |
|---|---|
| Stefon Diggs | 63 |
| Hunter Henry | 44 |
| Kayshon Boutte | 36 |
| DeMario Douglas | 29 |
| Kyle Williams | 20 |
Chargers vs. Patriots game-day updates and essential details
Sunday's game between the Patriots and Chargers at Gillette Stadium is scheduled to begin at 8:15 PM ET.
- Who: Los Angeles Chargers vs. New England Patriots
- Date: Sunday, January 11, 2026
- Time: 8:15 PM ET/5:15PM PT
- Venue: Gillette Stadium
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Conclusion
We predict the Patriots, with a 63% win probability, will likely beat the Chargers on Sunday.
AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Chargers vs. Patriots insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are sourced from up-to-date data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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Dave Garofolo uses sophisticated AI-driven analytics to make predictions and evaluate player performances in the NBA, MLB, NFL, NHL, NCAAM, and PGA TOUR tournaments, crafting insightful game and prop previews.
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