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Chargers vs. Chiefs prediction: Kansas City favored to win in NFL Week 15 [2025]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Ryan Leaver, Senior Sports and Betting Editor
Get Los Angeles Chargers vs Kansas City Chiefs predictions for NFL Sunday.
The Kansas City Chiefs will face the Los Angeles Chargers in NFL Week 15 action at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium on Sunday, starting at 1:00PM ET.
Based on the latest simulation results, Dimers' proven NFL model projects the Chiefs as the most likely winner of the Chargers vs. Chiefs game.
This article offers an expanded analysis of this week's matchup, including projected touchdown scorers, best bets and player prop picks.
Chargers vs. Chiefs prediction: Who will win and cover?
Since our Chargers-Chiefs predictions earlier in the week, we have simulated the outcome of Sunday's NFL game between the Chargers and Chiefs 10,000 times as part of our NFL predictions coverage.
Our leading predictive model currently gives the Chiefs a 71% chance of defeating the Chargers in Week 15 of the NFL season. Our predicted final score has the Chiefs winning 23-18.
According to our model, the Chargers (+6) have a 51% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 41.5 points has a 54% chance of going over.
To see win probabilities for every matchup this week, check out our expert NFL Week 15 straight up picks.
Chargers vs. Chiefs odds
We have sourced the best NFL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Chargers | Chiefs |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | +6 (-110) | -6 (-108) |
| Moneyline | +240 | -258 |
| Total | o41.5 (-110) | u41.5 (-110) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Chargers vs. Chiefs picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Chargers +6 | -110 |
| Moneyline | Chargers | +240 |
| Total | Over 41.5 | -110 |
According to our NFL best bets, the top play to make on this game is Over 41.5 total points.
Chargers vs. Chiefs TD scorers
Who will score a touchdown in Chargers vs. Chiefs?
According to our list of touchdown scorer predictions for Week 15, Rashee Rice is most likely to score an anytime touchdown in Chargers vs. Chiefs.
Our projections give Rice a 44.9% chance of getting in for six at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, while the wide receiver is an 11.4% chance of scoring the first touchdown the game.
Anytime touchdown scorer predictions
Los Angeles Chargers
| Player | Anytime TD Probability |
|---|---|
| Omarion Hampton (RB) | 36.0% |
| Ladd McConkey (WR) | 28.2% |
| Quentin Johnston (WR) | 24.8% |
| Keenan Allen (WR) | 24.2% |
| Kimani Vidal (RB) | 23.8% |
Kansas City Chiefs
| Player | Anytime TD Probability |
|---|---|
| Rashee Rice (WR) | 44.9% |
| Kareem Hunt (RB) | 42.4% |
| Travis Kelce (TE) | 28.0% |
| Xavier Worthy (WR) | 24.5% |
| Patrick Mahomes (QB) | 18.6% |
First touchdown scorer predictions
Los Angeles Chargers
| Player | First TD Probability |
|---|---|
| Omarion Hampton (RB) | 8.0% |
| Ladd McConkey (WR) | 5.9% |
| Quentin Johnston (WR) | 5.1% |
| Keenan Allen (WR) | 5.0% |
| Kimani Vidal (RB) | 4.9% |
Kansas City Chiefs
| Player | First TD Probability |
|---|---|
| Rashee Rice (WR) | 11.4% |
| Kareem Hunt (RB) | 10.6% |
| Travis Kelce (TE) | 6.3% |
| Xavier Worthy (WR) | 5.4% |
| Patrick Mahomes (QB) | 3.9% |
Chargers vs Chiefs player props
Discover our predictions for the players likely to lead in passing, rushing and receiving yards for both the Chargers and Chiefs. Head to our NFL player projections page now to access a full list of player prop projections for every offensive player in this matchup and all other Week 15 games.
Quarterbacks
Of the starting quarterbacks, the Chargers' Justin Herbert is projected for 209 passing yards. The Chiefs' Patrick Mahomes is expected to throw for 244 yards.
| Player | Proj. Pass Yards |
|---|---|
| Justin Herbert (LAC) | 209 |
| Patrick Mahomes (KC) | 244 |
Chargers rushing
| Player | Proj. Rush Yards |
|---|---|
| Omarion Hampton | 48 |
| Kimani Vidal | 34 |
| Justin Herbert | 27 |
Chiefs rushing
| Player | Proj. Rush Yards |
|---|---|
| Kareem Hunt | 40 |
| Isiah Pacheco | 31 |
| Patrick Mahomes | 27 |
Chargers receiving
| Player | Proj. Rec. Yards |
|---|---|
| Ladd McConkey | 50 |
| Oronde Gadsden | 37 |
| Keenan Allen | 37 |
| Quentin Johnston | 35 |
| Tre' Harris | 19 |
Chiefs receiving
| Player | Proj. Rec. Yards |
|---|---|
| Rashee Rice | 72 |
| Travis Kelce | 45 |
| Xavier Worthy | 41 |
| Tyquan Thornton | 21 |
| JuJu Smith-Schuster | 19 |
Chargers vs. Chiefs game-day updates and essential details
The NFL Week 15 game between the Chiefs and Chargers at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium is scheduled to begin at 1:00PM ET.
- Who: Los Angeles Chargers vs. Kansas City Chiefs
- Date: Sunday, December 14, 2025
- Time: 1:00PM ET/10:00AM PT
- Venue: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
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Conclusion
We predict the Chiefs, with a 71% win probability, will likely beat the Chargers in Week 15 of the NFL season.
AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Chargers vs. Chiefs insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are sourced from up-to-date data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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Ryan Leaver uses advanced statistical models and simulations to predict outcomes and provide predictions for the NBA, NFL, college football, college basketball, and soccer. He offers detailed game previews, best bets, props, and futures articles.
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