Chargers vs. Chiefs prediction: Kansas City favored to win in NFL Week 15 [2025]

The Kansas City Chiefs and Los Angeles Chargers will meet in Week 15 of the NFL season at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium on Sunday, with kickoff at 1:00PM ET.

Based on updated simulations, Dimers' advanced NFL model predicts the Chiefs as the most likely winner of the Chargers vs. Chiefs game.

This article offers further insights into Sunday's matchup, including projected touchdown scorers, best bets and player prop picks.

Chargers vs. Chiefs prediction: Who will win and cover?

Since our Chargers-Chiefs predictions earlier in the week, we have simulated the outcome of Sunday's NFL game between the Chargers and Chiefs 10,000 times as part of our NFL predictions coverage.

Our famous predictive model currently gives the Chiefs a 71% chance of beating the Chargers in Week 15 of the NFL season. Our predicted final score has the Chiefs winning 23-18.

According to our model, the bookies have got it right, and the Chargers and Chiefs each have a 50% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 41.5 points has a 54% chance of going over.

To see win probabilities for every matchup this week, check out our expert NFL Week 15 straight up picks.

Chargers vs. Chiefs odds

We have researched the best NFL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

Bet Type	Chargers	Chiefs
Spread	+5.5 (+100)	-5.5 (-120)
Moneyline	+240	-265
Total	o41.5 (-110)	u41.5 (-108)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Chargers vs. Chiefs picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

Bet Type	Pick	Bet Now
Spread	Chargers +5.5	+100
Moneyline	Chargers	+240
Total	Over 41.5	-110

According to our NFL best bets, the top play to make on this game is Over 41.5 total points.

Chargers vs. Chiefs TD scorers

Who will score a touchdown in Chargers vs. Chiefs?

According to our list of touchdown scorer predictions for Week 15, Rashee Rice is most likely to score an anytime touchdown in Chargers vs. Chiefs.

Our projections give Rice a 46.3% chance of scoring a TD at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, while the wide receiver is an 11.1% chance of scoring the first touchdown the game.

Anytime touchdown scorer predictions

Los Angeles Chargers

Player	Anytime TD Probability
Omarion Hampton (RB)	41.3%
Kimani Vidal (RB)	36.6%
Ladd McConkey (WR)	35.7%
Keenan Allen (WR)	31.9%
Oronde Gadsden (TE)	21.6%

Kansas City Chiefs

Player	Anytime TD Probability
Rashee Rice (WR)	46.3%
Kareem Hunt (RB)	44.7%
Travis Kelce (TE)	29.9%
Xavier Worthy (WR)	28.4%
Patrick Mahomes (QB)	20.5%

First touchdown scorer predictions

Los Angeles Chargers

Player	First TD Probability
Omarion Hampton (RB)	8.6%
Kimani Vidal (RB)	7.4%
Ladd McConkey (WR)	7.2%
Keenan Allen (WR)	6.2%
Oronde Gadsden (TE)	3.9%

Kansas City Chiefs

Player	First TD Probability
Rashee Rice (WR)	11.1%
Kareem Hunt (RB)	10.6%
Travis Kelce (TE)	6.4%
Xavier Worthy (WR)	6.0%
Patrick Mahomes (QB)	4.1%

Chargers vs Chiefs player props

Discover our predictions for the players likely to lead in passing, rushing and receiving yards for both the Chargers and Chiefs. Head to our NFL player projections page now to access a full list of player prop projections for every offensive player in this matchup and all other Week 15 games.

Quarterbacks

Of the starting quarterbacks, the Chargers' Justin Herbert is projected for 209 passing yards, while the Chiefs' Patrick Mahomes is expected to throw for 245 yards.

Player	Proj. Pass Yards
Justin Herbert (LAC)	209
Patrick Mahomes (KC)	245

Chargers rushing

Player	Proj. Rush Yards
Omarion Hampton	47
Kimani Vidal	36
Justin Herbert	27

Chiefs rushing

Player	Proj. Rush Yards
Kareem Hunt	40
Isiah Pacheco	34
Patrick Mahomes	27

Chargers receiving

Player	Proj. Rec. Yards
Ladd McConkey	53
Keenan Allen	40
Oronde Gadsden	40
Tre' Harris	25
Omarion Hampton	15

Chiefs receiving

Player	Proj. Rec. Yards
Rashee Rice	73
Travis Kelce	45
Xavier Worthy	41
Tyquan Thornton	21
JuJu Smith-Schuster	19

Chargers vs. Chiefs game-day updates and essential details

The NFL Week 15 action between the Chiefs and Chargers at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium is scheduled to begin at 1:00PM ET.

• Who: Los Angeles Chargers vs. Kansas City Chiefs
• Date: Sunday, December 14, 2025
• Time: 1:00PM ET/10:00AM PT
• Venue: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium

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Conclusion

We predict the Chiefs, with a 71% win probability, will likely beat the Chargers in Week 15 of the NFL season.

AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Chargers vs. Chiefs insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are drawn from up-to-date data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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