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Chargers vs. Broncos prediction: Denver favored to win in NFL Week 18 [2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Ryan Leaver, Senior Sports and Betting Editor
Get Los Angeles Chargers vs Denver Broncos predictions for NFL Sunday.
The Denver Broncos will take on the Los Angeles Chargers in NFL Week 18 action at Empower Field at Mile High on Sunday, commencing at 4:25 PM ET.
Based on the latest simulations, Dimers' proven NFL model projects the Broncos as the most likely winner of the Chargers vs. Broncos game.
This article offers an expanded analysis of this week's matchup, including projected touchdown scorers, best bets and player prop picks.
Chargers vs. Broncos prediction: Who will win and cover?
Since our Chargers-Broncos predictions earlier in the week, we have simulated the outcome of Sunday's NFL matchup between the Chargers and Broncos 10,000 times as part of our NFL predictions coverage.
Our independent predictive model gives the Broncos a 94% chance of defeating the Chargers in Week 18 of the NFL season. Our predicted final score has the Broncos winning 26-12.
According to our model, the Chargers (+15.5) have a 53% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 37.5 points has a 54% chance of going over.
To see win probabilities for every matchup this week, check out our expert NFL Week 18 straight up picks.
Chargers vs. Broncos odds
We have researched the best NFL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Chargers | Broncos |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | +15.5 (-112) | -15.5 (-105) |
| Moneyline | +900 | -1500 |
| Total | o37.5 (-110) | u37.5 (-104) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Chargers vs. Broncos picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Chargers +15.5 | -112 |
| Moneyline | Broncos | -1500 |
| Total | Over 37.5 | -110 |
According to our best NFL bets, the top play to make on this game is Over 37.5 total points.
Chargers vs. Broncos TD scorers
Who will score a touchdown in Chargers vs. Broncos?
According to our list of touchdown scorer predictions for today, RJ Harvey is most likely to score an anytime touchdown in Chargers vs. Broncos.
Our projections give Harvey a 54.4% chance of getting in for six at Empower Field at Mile High, while the running back is a 17.7% chance of scoring the first touchdown the game.
Anytime touchdown scorer predictions
Los Angeles Chargers
| Player | Anytime TD Probability |
|---|---|
| KeAndre Lambert-Smith (WR) | 22.9% |
| Jaret Patterson (RB) | 21.7% |
| Kimani Vidal (RB) | 20.8% |
| Tre' Harris (WR) | 17.3% |
| Trey Lance (QB) | 16.9% |
Denver Broncos
| Player | Anytime TD Probability |
|---|---|
| RJ Harvey (RB) | 54.4% |
| Courtland Sutton (WR) | 33.7% |
| Bo Nix (QB) | 23.1% |
| Troy Franklin (WR) | 19.3% |
| Jaleel McLaughlin (RB) | 18.4% |
First touchdown scorer predictions
Los Angeles Chargers
| Player | First TD Probability |
|---|---|
| KeAndre Lambert-Smith (WR) | 3.4% |
| Jaret Patterson (RB) | 3.2% |
| Kimani Vidal (RB) | 3.1% |
| Tre' Harris (WR) | 2.5% |
| Trey Lance (QB) | 2.4% |
Denver Broncos
| Player | First TD Probability |
|---|---|
| RJ Harvey (RB) | 17.7% |
| Courtland Sutton (WR) | 9.2% |
| Bo Nix (QB) | 5.9% |
| Troy Franklin (WR) | 4.8% |
| Jaleel McLaughlin (RB) | 4.6% |
Chargers vs Broncos player props
Discover our predictions for the players likely to lead in passing, rushing and receiving yards for both the Chargers and Broncos. Head to our NFL player projections page now to access a full list of player prop projections for every offensive player in this matchup and all other Week 18 games.
Quarterbacks
Of the starting quarterbacks, the Chargers' Trey Lance is projected to have a quiet game with 173 passing yards. The Broncos' Bo Nix is expected to throw for 230 yards.
| Player | Proj. Pass Yards |
|---|---|
| Trey Lance (LAC) | 173 |
| Bo Nix (DEN) | 230 |
Chargers rushing
| Player | Proj. Rush Yards |
|---|---|
| Trey Lance | 35 |
| Jaret Patterson | 30 |
| Kimani Vidal | 26 |
Broncos rushing
| Player | Proj. Rush Yards |
|---|---|
| RJ Harvey | 57 |
| Jaleel McLaughlin | 31 |
| Bo Nix | 18 |
Chargers receiving
| Player | Proj. Rec. Yards |
|---|---|
| Tre' Harris | 31 |
| KeAndre Lambert-Smith | 27 |
| Keenan Allen | 27 |
| Will Dissly | 17 |
| Oronde Gadsden | 15 |
Broncos receiving
| Player | Proj. Rec. Yards |
|---|---|
| Courtland Sutton | 61 |
| Troy Franklin | 28 |
| Marvin Mims | 25 |
| Evan Engram | 25 |
| Lil'Jordan Humphrey | 24 |
Chargers vs. Broncos game-day updates and essential details
The NFL Week 18 matchup between the Broncos and Chargers at Empower Field at Mile High is scheduled to begin at 4:25 PM ET.
- Who: Los Angeles Chargers vs. Denver Broncos
- Date: Sunday, January 4, 2026
- Time: 4:25 PM ET/1:25PM PT
- Venue: Empower Field at Mile High
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Conclusion
We predict the Broncos, with a 94% win probability, will likely beat the Chargers in Week 18 of the NFL season.
AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Chargers vs. Broncos insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are based on the latest data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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Ryan Leaver uses advanced statistical models and simulations to predict outcomes and provide predictions for the NBA, NFL, college football, college basketball, and soccer. He offers detailed game previews, best bets, props, and futures articles.
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