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Chargers vs. Cowboys prediction: Dallas favored to win in NFL Week 16 [2025]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Mac Douglass, Senior Editor
Get Los Angeles Chargers vs Dallas Cowboys predictions for NFL Sunday.
NFL Week 16 action continues on Sunday at 1:00 PM ET as the Los Angeles Chargers square off with the Dallas Cowboys at AT&T Stadium.
Based on the latest simulations, Dimers' advanced NFL model projects the Cowboys as the most likely winner of the Chargers vs. Cowboys game.
This article offers further insights into Sunday's matchup, including projected touchdown scorers, best bets and player prop picks.
Chargers vs. Cowboys prediction: Who will win and cover?
Since our Chargers-Cowboys predictions earlier in the week, we have simulated the outcome of Sunday's NFL game between the Chargers and Cowboys 10,000 times as part of our NFL predictions coverage.
Our independent predictive model currently gives the Cowboys a 57% chance of beating the Chargers in Week 16 of the NFL season. Our predicted final score has the Cowboys winning 25-23.
According to our model, the bookmakers have got it right, and the Chargers and Cowboys each have a 50% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 49.5 points also has an equal 50-50 chance of hitting.
To see win probabilities for every matchup this week, check out our expert NFL Week 16 straight up picks.
Chargers vs. Cowboys odds
We have sourced the best NFL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Chargers | Cowboys |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | +1.5 (-104) | -1.5 (-112) |
| Moneyline | +110 | -122 |
| Total | o49.5 (-115) | u49.5 (-105) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Chargers vs. Cowboys picks and best bet
After matching our probabilities against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Chargers +1.5 | -104 |
| Moneyline | Cowboys | -122 |
| Total | Under 49.5 | -105 |
According to our best NFL bets, the top play to make on this game is Cowboys to win.
Chargers vs. Cowboys TD scorers
Who will score a touchdown in Chargers vs. Cowboys?
According to our model, Javonte Williams is most likely to score an anytime TD in Chargers vs. Cowboys.
Our projections give Williams a 52.5% chance of getting in for six at AT&T Stadium, while the running back is a 12.2% chance of scoring the first touchdown the game.
Anytime touchdown scorer predictions
Los Angeles Chargers
| Player | Anytime TD Probability |
|---|---|
| Omarion Hampton (RB) | 43.7% |
| Ladd McConkey (WR) | 37.2% |
| Keenan Allen (WR) | 33.2% |
| Quentin Johnston (WR) | 30.8% |
| Oronde Gadsden (TE) | 28.0% |
Dallas Cowboys
| Player | Anytime TD Probability |
|---|---|
| Javonte Williams (RB) | 52.5% |
| CeeDee Lamb (WR) | 37.3% |
| George Pickens (WR) | 34.8% |
| Jake Ferguson (TE) | 29.9% |
| Malik Davis (RB) | 19.4% |
First touchdown scorer predictions
Los Angeles Chargers
| Player | First TD Probability |
|---|---|
| Omarion Hampton (RB) | 8.6% |
| Ladd McConkey (WR) | 6.9% |
| Keenan Allen (WR) | 6.0% |
| Quentin Johnston (WR) | 5.5% |
| Oronde Gadsden (TE) | 4.9% |
Dallas Cowboys
| Player | First TD Probability |
|---|---|
| Javonte Williams (RB) | 12.2% |
| CeeDee Lamb (WR) | 7.6% |
| George Pickens (WR) | 7.0% |
| Jake Ferguson (TE) | 5.8% |
| Malik Davis (RB) | 3.5% |
Chargers vs Cowboys player props
Discover our predictions for the players likely to lead in passing, rushing and receiving yards for both the Chargers and Cowboys. Head to our NFL player projections page now to access a full list of player prop projections for every offensive player in this matchup and all other Week 16 games.
Quarterbacks
Of the starting quarterbacks, the Chargers' Justin Herbert is projected for 244 passing yards, while the Cowboys' Dak Prescott is expected to throw for a whopping 262 yards.
| Player | Proj. Pass Yards |
|---|---|
| Justin Herbert (LAC) | 244 |
| Dak Prescott (DAL) | 262 |
Chargers rushing
| Player | Proj. Rush Yards |
|---|---|
| Omarion Hampton | 55 |
| Kimani Vidal | 40 |
| Justin Herbert | 23 |
Cowboys rushing
| Player | Proj. Rush Yards |
|---|---|
| Javonte Williams | 73 |
| Malik Davis | 18 |
| Dak Prescott | 11 |
Chargers receiving
| Player | Proj. Rec. Yards |
|---|---|
| Ladd McConkey | 53 |
| Keenan Allen | 44 |
| Oronde Gadsden | 42 |
| Quentin Johnston | 39 |
| Tre' Harris | 29 |
Cowboys receiving
| Player | Proj. Rec. Yards |
|---|---|
| CeeDee Lamb | 80 |
| George Pickens | 68 |
| Jake Ferguson | 39 |
| Ryan Flournoy | 33 |
| KaVontae Turpin | 15 |
Chargers vs. Cowboys game-day updates and essential details
The NFL Week 16 game between the Cowboys and Chargers at AT&T Stadium is scheduled to commence at 1:00 PM ET.
- Who: Los Angeles Chargers vs. Dallas Cowboys
- Date: Sunday, December 21, 2025
- Time: 1:00 PM ET/10:00AM PT
- Venue: AT&T Stadium
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Conclusion
We predict the Cowboys, with a 57% win probability, will likely beat the Chargers in Week 16 of the NFL season.
AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Chargers vs. Cowboys insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are based on the latest data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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Mac Douglass specializes in NFL previews for the NFC South and NFC East, MLB best bets, Formula 1 race previews, and professional tennis insights. Combining predictive simulations and data-driven sports analysis, Mac provides in-depth content to elevate the betting experience for sports fans.
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