Soccer predictions & picks: Analyzing data to beat the odds in Spain's La Liga

This week's top La Liga predictions and picks have been identified using Dimers' elite in-house data science practices designed to unearth mis-priced sportsbook odds, while simultaneously powering our highly respected soccer betting products such as these La Liga best bets, our English Premier League predictions, and even our Liga MX picks.

While we're looking beyond Real Madrid CF and FC Barcelona on this occasion, the focus still remains on Spain where we once again have an exciting array of predictions from every La Liga match scheduled this week.

Using advanced soccer data and predictive analytics we've identified an interesting soccer betting opportunity in one La Liga matchup in particular - Getafe vs. Sevilla.

In a FIFA World Cup year when the public can often struggle to find an attractive angle in soccer betting, the Dimers models have identified a longshot La Liga bet worth considering on Sunday.

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With La Liga heavyweights Real Madrid playing Osasuna, and Barcelona facing Levante, the clash between Getafe and Sevilla at the Coliseum flies under the radar as a classic mid-table battle.

Getafe enters with a 39.5% win probability, buoyed by recent victories over Villarreal and Alaves, while a struggling Sevilla side—winless in their last six away league matches—holds a 30.2% chance.

However, one of the most interesting statistics is the 30.3% probability of a draw, the second highest likelihood among the three primary outcomes, reflecting two sides that have often found themselves deadlocked this season.

Getafe has averaged a dire 0.7 goals per game over their last ten outings (0.83 on the season), while Sevilla has managed only five goals in their previous six away trips.

The Dimers "Correct Score" matrix below further illustrates this; a 0-0 scoreline is projected at a 13% probability, slightly behind Getafe 1-0 (14%) for the most likely correct result, while holding the exact same probability as a 1-1 draw.

The history between these two at the Coliseum reinforces the defensive trend. Their most recent meeting at this venue? 

Yep, a 0-0 stalemate.

With the above probabilities in mind, and some appealing odds on the board, taking the 0-0 draw at +600 or better represents a solid betting opportunity - noting that "fair" odds would be slightly higher at around +659.

In modern day soccer, betting on a scoreless draw is typically a high risk play, but because this wager captures a near perfect storm of data, the 0-0 draw is the most interesting way to play the correct score numbers.