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Chiefs vs. Titans prediction: Why Kansas City is favored to win in NFL Week 16 [2025]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Dave Garofolo, Content Producer
Get Kansas City Chiefs vs Tennessee Titans predictions for NFL Sunday.
The Tennessee Titans and Kansas City Chiefs will meet in Week 16 of the NFL season at Nissan Stadium on Sunday, starting at 1:00 PM ET.
Based on updated simulation results, Dimers' advanced NFL model predicts the Chiefs as the most likely winner of the Chiefs vs. Titans game.
This article offers further insights into Sunday's matchup, including projected touchdown scorers, best bets and player prop picks.
Chiefs vs. Titans prediction: Who will win and cover?
Since our Chiefs-Titans predictions earlier in the week, we have simulated the result of Sunday's NFL game between the Chiefs and Titans 10,000 times as part of our NFL predictions coverage.
Our famous predictive model currently gives the Chiefs a 58% chance of beating the Titans in Week 16 of the NFL season. Our predicted final score has the Chiefs winning 20-18.
According to our model, the Titans (+2.5) have a 58% chance of covering the spread, while the 37.5-point over/under has a 54% chance of going over.
To see win probabilities for every matchup this week, check out our expert NFL Week 16 straight up picks.
Chiefs vs. Titans odds
We have sourced the best NFL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Chiefs | Titans |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | -2.5 (-120) | +2.5 (-102) |
| Moneyline | -154 | +136 |
| Total | o37.5 (-110) | u37.5 (-110) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Chiefs vs. Titans picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Titans +2.5 | -102 |
| Moneyline | Titans | +136 |
| Total | Over 37.5 | -110 |
According to our NFL best bets, the top play to make on this game is Titans +2.5 at the spread.
Chiefs vs. Titans TD scorers
Who will score a touchdown in Chiefs vs. Titans?
According to our model, Tony Pollard is most likely to score an anytime touchdown in Chiefs vs. Titans.
Our projections give Pollard a 33.8% chance of scoring a TD at Nissan Stadium, while the running back is a 10.7% chance of scoring the first touchdown the game.
Anytime touchdown scorer predictions
Kansas City Chiefs
| Player | Anytime TD Probability |
|---|---|
| Kareem Hunt (RB) | 33.6% |
| Travis Kelce (TE) | 29.7% |
| Xavier Worthy (WR) | 25.9% |
| Isiah Pacheco (RB) | 23.7% |
| Hollywood Brown (WR) | 21.8% |
Tennessee Titans
| Player | Anytime TD Probability |
|---|---|
| Tony Pollard (RB) | 33.8% |
| Tyjae Spears (RB) | 23.5% |
| Chimere Dike (WR) | 21.6% |
| Elic Ayomanor (WR) | 17.7% |
| Gunnar Helm (TE) | 14.3% |
First touchdown scorer predictions
Kansas City Chiefs
| Player | First TD Probability |
|---|---|
| Kareem Hunt (RB) | 8.6% |
| Travis Kelce (TE) | 7.4% |
| Xavier Worthy (WR) | 6.3% |
| Isiah Pacheco (RB) | 5.7% |
| Hollywood Brown (WR) | 5.2% |
Tennessee Titans
| Player | First TD Probability |
|---|---|
| Tony Pollard (RB) | 10.7% |
| Tyjae Spears (RB) | 6.9% |
| Chimere Dike (WR) | 6.3% |
| Elic Ayomanor (WR) | 5.1% |
| Gunnar Helm (TE) | 4.0% |
Chiefs vs Titans player props
Discover our predictions for the players likely to lead in passing, rushing and receiving yards for both the Chiefs and Titans. Head to our NFL player projections page now to access a full list of player prop projections for every offensive player in this matchup and all other Week 16 games.
Quarterbacks
Of the starting quarterbacks, the Chiefs' Gardner Minshew is projected for 217 passing yards. The Titans' Cam Ward is expected to throw for 190 yards.
| Player | Proj. Pass Yards |
|---|---|
| Gardner Minshew (KC) | 217 |
| Cam Ward (TEN) | 190 |
Chiefs rushing
| Player | Proj. Rush Yards |
|---|---|
| Isiah Pacheco | 41 |
| Kareem Hunt | 31 |
| Gardner Minshew | 9 |
Titans rushing
| Player | Proj. Rush Yards |
|---|---|
| Tony Pollard | 58 |
| Tyjae Spears | 19 |
| Cam Ward | 11 |
Chiefs receiving
| Player | Proj. Rec. Yards |
|---|---|
| Travis Kelce | 52 |
| Xavier Worthy | 48 |
| Hollywood Brown | 41 |
| JuJu Smith-Schuster | 26 |
| Noah Gray | 20 |
Titans receiving
| Player | Proj. Rec. Yards |
|---|---|
| Chimere Dike | 34 |
| Elic Ayomanor | 30 |
| Chig Okonkwo | 28 |
| Gunnar Helm | 28 |
| Van Jefferson | 26 |
Chiefs vs. Titans game-day updates and essential details
The NFL Week 16 game between the Titans and Chiefs at Nissan Stadium is scheduled to start at 1:00 PM ET.
- Who: Kansas City Chiefs vs. Tennessee Titans
- Date: Sunday, December 21, 2025
- Time: 1:00 PM ET/10:00AM PT
- Venue: Nissan Stadium
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Conclusion
We predict the Chiefs, with a 58% win probability, will likely beat the Titans in Week 16 of the NFL season.
AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Chiefs vs. Titans insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are drawn from up-to-date data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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Dave Garofolo uses sophisticated AI-driven analytics to make predictions and evaluate player performances in the NBA, MLB, NFL, NHL, NCAAM, and PGA TOUR tournaments, crafting insightful game and prop previews.
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