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Jaguars vs. Colts prediction: Why Jacksonville is favored to win in NFL Week 17 [2025]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Dave Garofolo, Content Producer
Get Jacksonville Jaguars vs Indianapolis Colts predictions for NFL Sunday.
The Indianapolis Colts will square off with the favored Jacksonville Jaguars in NFL Week 17 action at Lucas Oil Stadium on Sunday, beginning at 1:00 PM ET.
Based on updated simulation results, Dimers' proven NFL model predicts the Jaguars as the most likely winner of the Jaguars vs. Colts game.
This article offers an expanded analysis of Sunday's matchup, including projected touchdown scorers, best bets and player prop picks.
Jaguars vs. Colts prediction: Who will win and cover?
Since our Jaguars-Colts predictions earlier in the week, we have simulated the outcome of Sunday's NFL game between the Jaguars and Colts 10,000 times as part of our NFL predictions coverage.
Our famous predictive model gives the Jaguars a 66% chance of beating the Colts in Week 17 of the NFL season. Our predicted final score has the Jaguars winning 26-22.
According to our model, the Colts (+5.5) have a 54% chance of covering the spread, while the 48.5-point over/under has an equal 50-50 chance of hitting.
To see win probabilities for every matchup this week, check out our expert NFL Week 17 straight up picks.
Jaguars vs. Colts odds
We have sourced the best NFL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Jaguars | Colts |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | -5.5 (-115) | +5.5 (-104) |
| Moneyline | -250 | +220 |
| Total | o48.5 (-110) | u48.5 (-110) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Jaguars vs. Colts picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Colts +5.5 | -104 |
| Moneyline | Colts | +220 |
| Total | Under 48.5 | -110 |
According to our best NFL bets, the top play to make on this game is Colts +5.5 at the spread.
Jaguars vs. Colts TD scorers
Who will score a touchdown in Jaguars vs. Colts?
According to our model, Jonathan Taylor is most likely to score an anytime TD in Jaguars vs. Colts.
Our projections give Taylor a 63.4% chance of getting in for six at Lucas Oil Stadium, while the running back is a 16.2% chance of scoring the first touchdown the game.
Anytime touchdown scorer predictions
Jacksonville Jaguars
| Player | Anytime TD Probability |
|---|---|
| Travis Etienne (RB) | 57.6% |
| Jakobi Meyers (WR) | 33.5% |
| Brian Thomas (WR) | 29.8% |
| Trevor Lawrence (QB) | 29.3% |
| Parker Washington (WR) | 27.3% |
Indianapolis Colts
| Player | Anytime TD Probability |
|---|---|
| Jonathan Taylor (RB) | 63.4% |
| Tyler Warren (TE) | 29.5% |
| Michael Pittman (WR) | 26.6% |
| Josh Downs (WR) | 25.4% |
| Alec Pierce (WR) | 24.0% |
First touchdown scorer predictions
Jacksonville Jaguars
| Player | First TD Probability |
|---|---|
| Travis Etienne (RB) | 14.6% |
| Jakobi Meyers (WR) | 6.9% |
| Brian Thomas (WR) | 6.0% |
| Trevor Lawrence (QB) | 5.9% |
| Parker Washington (WR) | 5.4% |
Indianapolis Colts
| Player | First TD Probability |
|---|---|
| Jonathan Taylor (RB) | 16.2% |
| Tyler Warren (TE) | 5.6% |
| Michael Pittman (WR) | 5.0% |
| Josh Downs (WR) | 4.7% |
| Alec Pierce (WR) | 4.4% |
Jaguars vs Colts player props
Discover our predictions for the players likely to lead in passing, rushing and receiving yards for both the Jaguars and Colts. Head to our NFL player projections page now to access a full list of player prop projections for every offensive player in this matchup and all other Week 17 games.
Quarterbacks
Of the starting quarterbacks, the Jaguars' Trevor Lawrence is projected for 257 passing yards, while the Colts' Philip Rivers is expected to throw for 220 yards.
| Player | Proj. Pass Yards |
|---|---|
| Trevor Lawrence (JAX) | 257 |
| Philip Rivers (IND) | 220 |
Jaguars rushing
| Player | Proj. Rush Yards |
|---|---|
| Travis Etienne | 67 |
| Trevor Lawrence | 21 |
| LeQuint Allen | 13 |
Colts rushing
| Player | Proj. Rush Yards |
|---|---|
| Jonathan Taylor | 80 |
| Ameer Abdullah | 12 |
| Philip Rivers | 3 |
Jaguars receiving
| Player | Proj. Rec. Yards |
|---|---|
| Jakobi Meyers | 64 |
| Brian Thomas | 52 |
| Parker Washington | 47 |
| Brenton Strange | 41 |
| Travis Etienne | 21 |
Colts receiving
| Player | Proj. Rec. Yards |
|---|---|
| Michael Pittman | 51 |
| Tyler Warren | 49 |
| Josh Downs | 43 |
| Alec Pierce | 38 |
| Jonathan Taylor | 21 |
Jaguars vs. Colts game-day updates and essential details
The NFL Week 17 game between the Colts and Jaguars at Lucas Oil Stadium is scheduled to begin at 1:00 PM ET.
- Who: Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Indianapolis Colts
- Date: Sunday, December 28, 2025
- Time: 1:00 PM ET/10:00AM PT
- Venue: Lucas Oil Stadium
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Conclusion
We predict the Jaguars, with a 66% win probability, will likely beat the Colts in Week 17 of the NFL season.
AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Jaguars vs. Colts insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are sourced from up-to-date data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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Dave Garofolo uses sophisticated AI-driven analytics to make predictions and evaluate player performances in the NBA, MLB, NFL, NHL, NCAAM, and PGA TOUR tournaments, crafting insightful game and prop previews.
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