Jaguars vs. Texans prediction: Houston favored to win in NFL Week 10, 2025

NFL Week 10 action continues on Sunday at 1:00PM ET as the Jacksonville Jaguars lock horns with the Houston Texans at NRG Stadium.

Based on updated simulation results, Dimers' advanced NFL model predicts the Texans as the most likely winner of the Jaguars vs. Texans game.

This article offers an expanded analysis of this week's matchup, including touchdown scorer projections, best bets and player prop picks.

Jaguars vs. Texans prediction: Who will win, cover the spread?

Since our Jaguars-Texans predictions earlier in the week, we have simulated the outcome of Sunday's NFL matchup between the Jaguars and Texans 10,000 times as part of our NFL predictions coverage.

Our famous predictive model currently gives the Texans a 59% chance of defeating the Jaguars in Week 10 of the NFL season. Our predicted final score has the Texans winning 20-18.

According to our model, the Texans (+1.5) have a 55% chance of covering the spread, while the 37.5-point over/under has a 54% chance of going over.

To see win probabilities for every matchup this week, check out our expert NFL Week 10 straight up picks.

Jaguars vs. Texans odds

We have sourced the best NFL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

Bet Type	Jaguars	Texans
Spread	-1.5 (+102)	+1.5 (-122)
Moneyline	+102	-108
Total	o37.5 (-108)	u37.5 (-106)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Jaguars vs. Texans picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

Bet Type	Pick	Bet Now
Spread	Texans +1.5	-122
Moneyline	Texans	-108
Total	Over 37.5	-108

According to our NFL best bets, the top play to make on this game is Texans to win.

Jaguars vs. Texans TD scorers

Who will score a touchdown in Jaguars vs. Texans?

According to our list of touchdown scorer predictions for Week 10, Nico Collins is most likely to score an anytime touchdown in Jaguars vs. Texans.

Our projections give Collins a 37.2% chance of scoring a TD at NRG Stadium, while the running back is a 9.6% chance of scoring the first touchdown the game.

Anytime touchdown scorer predictions

Jacksonville Jaguars

Player	Anytime TD Probability
Travis Etienne (RB)	36.2%
Parker Washington (WR)	24.9%
Bhayshul Tuten (RB)	23.6%
Jakobi Meyers (WR)	21.4%
Trevor Lawrence (QB)	17.7%

Houston Texans

Player	Anytime TD Probability
Nico Collins (WR)	37.2%
Woody Marks (RB)	30.0%
Dalton Schultz (TE)	22.5%
Nick Chubb (RB)	22.1%
Christian Kirk (WR)	20.5%

First touchdown scorer predictions

Jacksonville Jaguars

Player	First TD Probability
Travis Etienne (RB)	9.6%
Parker Washington (WR)	6.1%
Bhayshul Tuten (RB)	5.8%
Jakobi Meyers (WR)	5.1%
Trevor Lawrence (QB)	4.2%

Houston Texans

Player	First TD Probability
Nico Collins (WR)	9.6%
Woody Marks (RB)	7.4%
Dalton Schultz (TE)	5.3%
Nick Chubb (RB)	5.2%
Christian Kirk (WR)	4.7%

Jaguars vs Texans player props

Discover our predictions for the players likely to lead in passing, rushing and receiving yards for both the Jaguars and Texans. Head to our NFL player projections page now to access a full list of player prop projections for every offensive player in this matchup and all other Week 10 games.

Quarterbacks

Of the starting quarterbacks, the Jaguars' Trevor Lawrence is projected for 214 passing yards, while the Texans' Davis Mills is expected to throw for 219 yards.

Player	Proj. Pass Yards
Trevor Lawrence (JAX)	214
Davis Mills (HOU)	219

Jaguars rushing

Player	Proj. Rush Yards
Travis Etienne	58
Bhayshul Tuten	22
Trevor Lawrence	18

Texans rushing

Player	Proj. Rush Yards
Woody Marks	41
Nick Chubb	41
Davis Mills	9

Jaguars receiving

Player	Proj. Rec. Yards
Parker Washington	49
Jakobi Meyers	39
Dyami Brown	37
Johnny Mundt	21
Travis Etienne	18

Texans receiving

Player	Proj. Rec. Yards
Nico Collins	69
Dalton Schultz	40
Christian Kirk	37
Xavier Hutchinson	24
Woody Marks	18

Jaguars vs. Texans game-day updates and essential details

The NFL Week 10 action between the Texans and Jaguars at NRG Stadium is scheduled to begin at 1:00PM ET.

• Who: Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Houston Texans
• Date: Sunday, November 9, 2025
• Time: 1:00PM ET/10:00AM PT
• Venue: NRG Stadium

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Conclusion

We predict the Texans, with a 59% win probability, will likely beat the Jaguars in Week 10 of the NFL season.

AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Jaguars vs. Texans insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are drawn from up-to-date data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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