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Jaguars vs. Broncos prediction: Denver favored to win in NFL Week 16 [2025]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Ryan Leaver, Senior Sports and Betting Editor
Get Jacksonville Jaguars vs Denver Broncos predictions for NFL Sunday.
The Denver Broncos will face the Jacksonville Jaguars in NFL Week 16 action at Empower Field at Mile High on Sunday, commencing at 4:05 PM ET.
Based on the latest simulation results, Dimers' proven NFL model projects the Broncos as the most likely winner of the Jaguars vs. Broncos game.
This article offers further insights into this week's matchup, including projected touchdown scorers, best bets and player prop picks.
Jaguars vs. Broncos prediction: Who will win and cover?
Since our Jaguars-Broncos predictions earlier in the week, we have simulated the outcome of Sunday's NFL matchup between the Jaguars and Broncos 10,000 times as part of our NFL predictions coverage.
Our leading predictive model gives the Broncos a 61% chance of beating the Jaguars in Week 16 of the NFL season. Our predicted final score has the Broncos winning 24-21.
According to our model, the Jaguars (+3) have a 56% chance of covering the spread, while the 46.5-point over/under has an equal 50-50 chance of hitting.
To see win probabilities for every matchup this week, check out our expert NFL Week 16 straight up picks.
Jaguars vs. Broncos odds
We have researched the best NFL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Jaguars | Broncos |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | +3 (-105) | -3 (-125) |
| Moneyline | +154 | -178 |
| Total | o46.5 (-110) | u46.5 (-102) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Jaguars vs. Broncos picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Jaguars +3 | -105 |
| Moneyline | Jaguars | +154 |
| Total | Under 46.5 | -102 |
According to our best NFL bets, the top play to make on this game is Jaguars +3 at the spread.
Jaguars vs. Broncos TD scorers
Who will score a touchdown in Jaguars vs. Broncos?
According to our list of touchdown scorer predictions for today, RJ Harvey is most likely to score an anytime TD in Jaguars vs. Broncos.
Our projections give Harvey a 52.3% chance of scoring a TD at Empower Field at Mile High, while the running back is a 12.5% chance of scoring the first touchdown the game.
Anytime touchdown scorer predictions
Jacksonville Jaguars
| Player | Anytime TD Probability |
|---|---|
| Travis Etienne (RB) | 48.7% |
| Jakobi Meyers (WR) | 28.5% |
| Brian Thomas (WR) | 26.7% |
| Trevor Lawrence (QB) | 22.3% |
| Parker Washington (WR) | 20.8% |
Denver Broncos
| Player | Anytime TD Probability |
|---|---|
| RJ Harvey (RB) | 52.3% |
| Courtland Sutton (WR) | 35.0% |
| Troy Franklin (WR) | 24.5% |
| Pat Bryant (WR) | 21.5% |
| Bo Nix (QB) | 20.3% |
First touchdown scorer predictions
Jacksonville Jaguars
| Player | First TD Probability |
|---|---|
| Travis Etienne (RB) | 11.8% |
| Jakobi Meyers (WR) | 5.9% |
| Brian Thomas (WR) | 5.5% |
| Trevor Lawrence (QB) | 4.5% |
| Parker Washington (WR) | 4.1% |
Denver Broncos
| Player | First TD Probability |
|---|---|
| RJ Harvey (RB) | 12.5% |
| Courtland Sutton (WR) | 7.3% |
| Troy Franklin (WR) | 4.7% |
| Pat Bryant (WR) | 4.1% |
| Bo Nix (QB) | 3.8% |
Jaguars vs Broncos player props
Discover our predictions for the players likely to lead in passing, rushing and receiving yards for both the Jaguars and Broncos. Head to our NFL player projections page now to access a full list of player prop projections for every offensive player in this matchup and all other Week 16 games.
Quarterbacks
Of the starting quarterbacks, the Jaguars' Trevor Lawrence is projected for 232 passing yards, while the Broncos' Bo Nix is expected to throw for 246 yards.
| Player | Proj. Pass Yards |
|---|---|
| Trevor Lawrence (JAX) | 232 |
| Bo Nix (DEN) | 246 |
Jaguars rushing
| Player | Proj. Rush Yards |
|---|---|
| Travis Etienne | 61 |
| Trevor Lawrence | 23 |
| LeQuint Allen | 13 |
Broncos rushing
| Player | Proj. Rush Yards |
|---|---|
| RJ Harvey | 54 |
| Bo Nix | 21 |
| Jaleel McLaughlin | 16 |
Jaguars receiving
| Player | Proj. Rec. Yards |
|---|---|
| Jakobi Meyers | 60 |
| Brian Thomas | 50 |
| Brenton Strange | 43 |
| Parker Washington | 35 |
| Travis Etienne | 17 |
Broncos receiving
| Player | Proj. Rec. Yards |
|---|---|
| Courtland Sutton | 65 |
| Pat Bryant | 41 |
| Troy Franklin | 34 |
| Evan Engram | 29 |
| Marvin Mims | 21 |
Jaguars vs. Broncos game-day updates and essential details
The NFL Week 16 game between the Broncos and Jaguars at Empower Field at Mile High is scheduled to commence at 4:05 PM ET.
- Who: Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Denver Broncos
- Date: Sunday, December 21, 2025
- Time: 4:05 PM ET/1:05PM PT
- Venue: Empower Field at Mile High
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Conclusion
We predict the Broncos, with a 61% win probability, will likely beat the Jaguars in Week 16 of the NFL season.
AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Jaguars vs. Broncos insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are based on the latest data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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Ryan Leaver uses advanced statistical models and simulations to predict outcomes and provide predictions for the NBA, NFL, college football, college basketball, and soccer. He offers detailed game previews, best bets, props, and futures articles.
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