Jaguars vs. Broncos prediction: Denver favored to win in NFL Week 16 [2025]

The Denver Broncos will square off with the Jacksonville Jaguars in NFL Week 16 action at Empower Field at Mile High on Sunday, commencing at 4:05 PM ET.

Based on updated simulation results, Dimers' proven NFL model predicts the Broncos as the most likely winner of the Jaguars vs. Broncos game.

This article offers an expanded analysis of this week's matchup, including projected touchdown scorers, best bets and player prop picks.

Jaguars vs. Broncos prediction: Who will win and cover?

Since our Jaguars-Broncos predictions earlier in the week, we have simulated the result of Sunday's NFL game between the Jaguars and Broncos 10,000 times as part of our NFL predictions coverage.

Our independent predictive model currently gives the Broncos a 61% chance of defeating the Jaguars in Week 16 of the NFL season. Our predicted final score has the Broncos winning 24-21.

According to our model, the Jaguars (+3) have a 56% chance of covering the spread, while the 47-point over/under has a 51% chance of staying under.

To see win probabilities for every matchup this week, check out our expert NFL Week 16 straight up picks.

Jaguars vs. Broncos odds

We have researched the best NFL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

Bet Type	Jaguars	Broncos
Spread	+3 (-105)	-3 (-125)
Moneyline	+154	-172
Total	o47 (-110)	u47 (-110)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Jaguars vs. Broncos picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

Bet Type	Pick	Bet Now
Spread	Jaguars +3	-105
Moneyline	Jaguars	+154
Total	Under 47	-110

According to our NFL best bets, the top play to make on this game is Jaguars +3 at the spread.

Jaguars vs. Broncos TD scorers

Who will score a touchdown in Jaguars vs. Broncos?

According to our list of touchdown scorer predictions for today, RJ Harvey is most likely to score an anytime TD in Jaguars vs. Broncos.

Our projections give Harvey a 52.3% chance of scoring a TD at Empower Field at Mile High, while the running back is a 12.8% chance of scoring the first touchdown the game.

Anytime touchdown scorer predictions

Jacksonville Jaguars

Player	Anytime TD Probability
Travis Etienne (RB)	48.7%
Jakobi Meyers (WR)	28.2%
Brian Thomas (WR)	26.6%
Trevor Lawrence (QB)	22.7%
Parker Washington (WR)	20.9%

Denver Broncos

Player	Anytime TD Probability
RJ Harvey (RB)	52.3%
Courtland Sutton (WR)	35.0%
Troy Franklin (WR)	24.4%
Pat Bryant (WR)	21.4%
Bo Nix (QB)	20.2%

First touchdown scorer predictions

Jacksonville Jaguars

Player	First TD Probability
Travis Etienne (RB)	12.1%
Jakobi Meyers (WR)	6.0%
Brian Thomas (WR)	5.6%
Trevor Lawrence (QB)	4.7%
Parker Washington (WR)	4.2%

Denver Broncos

Player	First TD Probability
RJ Harvey (RB)	12.8%
Courtland Sutton (WR)	7.4%
Troy Franklin (WR)	4.8%
Pat Bryant (WR)	4.2%
Bo Nix (QB)	3.9%

Jaguars vs Broncos player props

Discover our predictions for the players likely to lead in passing, rushing and receiving yards for both the Jaguars and Broncos. Head to our NFL player projections page now to access a full list of player prop projections for every offensive player in this matchup and all other Week 16 games.

Quarterbacks

Of the starting quarterbacks, the Jaguars' Trevor Lawrence is projected for 233 passing yards, while the Broncos' Bo Nix is expected to throw for 246 yards.

Player	Proj. Pass Yards
Trevor Lawrence (JAX)	233
Bo Nix (DEN)	246

Jaguars rushing

Player	Proj. Rush Yards
Travis Etienne	61
Trevor Lawrence	22
LeQuint Allen	13

Broncos rushing

Player	Proj. Rush Yards
RJ Harvey	54
Bo Nix	21
Jaleel McLaughlin	18

Jaguars receiving

Player	Proj. Rec. Yards
Jakobi Meyers	60
Brian Thomas	50
Brenton Strange	43
Parker Washington	37
Travis Etienne	17

Broncos receiving

Player	Proj. Rec. Yards
Courtland Sutton	66
Pat Bryant	41
Troy Franklin	34
Evan Engram	29
Marvin Mims	20

Jaguars vs. Broncos game-day updates and essential details

The NFL Week 16 matchup between the Broncos and Jaguars at Empower Field at Mile High is scheduled to begin at 4:05 PM ET.

• Who: Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Denver Broncos
• Date: Sunday, December 21, 2025
• Time: 4:05 PM ET/1:05PM PT
• Venue: Empower Field at Mile High

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Conclusion

We predict the Broncos, with a 61% win probability, will likely beat the Jaguars in Week 16 of the NFL season.

AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Jaguars vs. Broncos insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are based on up-to-date data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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