Colts vs. Chiefs prediction: Kansas City favored to win in NFL Week 12, 2025

NFL Week 12 action continues on Sunday at 1:00PM ET as the Indianapolis Colts square off with the Kansas City Chiefs at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium.

Based on updated simulation results, Dimers' advanced NFL model projects the Chiefs as the most likely winner of the Colts vs. Chiefs game.

This article offers a closer look at this week's matchup, including projected touchdown scorers, best bets and player prop picks.

Colts vs. Chiefs prediction: Who will win and cover?

Since our Colts-Chiefs predictions earlier in the week, we have simulated the result of Sunday's NFL game between the Colts and Chiefs 10,000 times as part of our NFL predictions coverage.

Our independent predictive model currently gives the Chiefs a 65% chance of defeating the Colts in Week 12 of the NFL season. Our predicted final score has the Chiefs winning 27-22.

According to our model, the bookmakers have got it right, and the Colts and Chiefs each have a 50% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 49.5 points has a 53% chance of going over.

To see win probabilities for every matchup this week, check out our expert NFL Week 12 straight up picks.

Colts vs. Chiefs odds

We have researched the best NFL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

Bet Type	Colts	Chiefs
Spread	+4.5 (-110)	-4.5 (-102)
Moneyline	+190	-220
Total	o49.5 (-115)	u49.5 (-105)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Colts vs. Chiefs picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

Bet Type	Pick	Bet Now
Spread	Chiefs -4.5	-102
Moneyline	Colts	+190
Total	Over 49.5	-115

According to our NFL best bets, the top play to make on this game is Colts to win.

Colts vs. Chiefs TD scorers

Who will score a touchdown in Colts vs. Chiefs?

According to our list of touchdown scorer predictions for today, Jonathan Taylor is most likely to score an anytime TD in Colts vs. Chiefs.

Our projections give Taylor a 66.7% chance of scoring a TD at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, while the running back is a 17.1% chance of scoring the first touchdown the game.

Anytime touchdown scorer predictions

Indianapolis Colts

Player	Anytime TD Probability
Jonathan Taylor (RB)	66.7%
Tyler Warren (TE)	27.7%
Michael Pittman (WR)	25.6%
Alec Pierce (WR)	22.8%
Daniel Jones (QB)	21.1%

Kansas City Chiefs

Player	Anytime TD Probability
Kareem Hunt (RB)	53.1%
Rashee Rice (WR)	45.1%
Travis Kelce (TE)	35.3%
Xavier Worthy (WR)	28.9%
Patrick Mahomes (QB)	21.7%

First touchdown scorer predictions

Indianapolis Colts

Player	First TD Probability
Jonathan Taylor (RB)	17.1%
Tyler Warren (TE)	5.1%
Michael Pittman (WR)	4.6%
Alec Pierce (WR)	4.0%
Daniel Jones (QB)	3.7%

Kansas City Chiefs

Player	First TD Probability
Kareem Hunt (RB)	12.1%
Rashee Rice (WR)	9.6%
Travis Kelce (TE)	7.0%
Xavier Worthy (WR)	5.5%
Patrick Mahomes (QB)	3.9%

Colts vs Chiefs player props

Discover our predictions for the players likely to lead in passing, rushing and receiving yards for both the Colts and Chiefs. Head to our NFL player projections page now to access a full list of player prop projections for every offensive player in this matchup and all other Week 12 games.

Quarterbacks

Of the starting quarterbacks, the Colts' Daniel Jones is projected for 244 passing yards. The Chiefs' Patrick Mahomes is expected to throw for a whopping 273 yards.

Player	Proj. Pass Yards
Daniel Jones (IND)	244
Patrick Mahomes (KC)	273

Colts rushing

Player	Proj. Rush Yards
Jonathan Taylor	83
Daniel Jones	20
Ameer Abdullah	7

Chiefs rushing

Player	Proj. Rush Yards
Kareem Hunt	55
Patrick Mahomes	26
Brashard Smith	10

Colts receiving

Player	Proj. Rec. Yards
Alec Pierce	60
Michael Pittman	57
Tyler Warren	52
Josh Downs	39
Jonathan Taylor	23

Chiefs receiving

Player	Proj. Rec. Yards
Rashee Rice	76
Travis Kelce	56
Xavier Worthy	45
Hollywood Brown	30
JuJu Smith-Schuster	15

Colts vs. Chiefs game-day updates and essential details

The NFL Week 12 action between the Chiefs and Colts at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium is scheduled to start at 1:00PM ET.

• Who: Indianapolis Colts vs. Kansas City Chiefs
• Date: Sunday, November 23, 2025
• Time: 1:00PM ET/10:00AM PT
• Venue: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium

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Conclusion

We predict the Chiefs, with a 65% win probability, will likely beat the Colts in Week 12 of the NFL season.

AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Colts vs. Chiefs insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are drawn from up-to-date data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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