Pacers vs. Thunder prediction: Oklahoma City favored to win Friday's NBA matchup [1/23/2026]

The Oklahoma City Thunder will face the Indiana Pacers in NBA action at Paycom Center on Friday, beginning at 8:00 PM ET.

Based on the latest simulation results and today’s injury updates, Dimers' advanced NBA model projects the Thunder as the most likely winner of the Pacers vs. Thunder game.

This prediction follows the latest NBA Injury Report, which suggests the Thunder lineup will feature players like Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Chet Holmgren and Isaiah Joe, while the Pacers will look to Pascal Siakam, Andrew Nembhard and Aaron Nesmith.

This article offers a closer look at Friday's matchup, including an expanded look at the predicted score, best bets and player prop picks.

Pacers vs. Thunder prediction: Who will win and cover?

Using trusted machine learning and data, we have simulated the result of Friday's NBA game between the Pacers and Thunder 10,000 times as part of our NBA predictions coverage.

Our independent predictive model gives the Thunder an 88% chance of beating the Pacers. Our predicted final score has the Thunder winning 119-105.

According to our model, the Pacers (+15.5) have a 56% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 226.5 points has a 51% chance of staying under.

Pacers vs. Thunder odds

We have researched the best NBA odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

Bet Type	Pacers	Thunder
Spread	+15.5 (-110)	-15.5 (-110)
Moneyline	+660	-900
Total	o226.5 (-110)	u226.5 (-110)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Pacers vs. Thunder picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

Bet Type	Pick	Bet Now
Spread	Pacers +15.5	-110
Moneyline	Pacers	+660
Total	Under 226.5	-110

According to our best NBA bets for Friday, the top play to make on this game is Pacers +15.5 at the spread.

Pacers vs. Thunder player props

NBA prop bets are an enjoyable way to wager on the Pacers vs. Thunder matchup without necessarily betting on the outcome. We have crunched the numbers to project how each team's leading players will perform at Paycom Center.

Pascal Siakam is expected to lead the Pacers with 22 points, 7 rebounds and 4 assists, while Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is projected to have 30 points, 5 rebounds and 6 assists for the Thunder.

Check out our NBA player projections for a full range of projected box scores, including points, assists, rebounds and today's NBA first basket picks.

Pacers prediction

Our model's projected player stats for the Pacers are:

Player	PTS	REB	AST	3PM	DFS
Pascal Siakam	22	7	4	2	42
Andrew Nembhard	15	3	6	2	32
Aaron Nesmith	13	5	2	3	27
T.J. McConnell	10	3	5	0	23
Jarace Walker	9	4	2	2	22

Thunder prediction

Projected points, rebounds, assists and three-pointers made for the Thunder:

Player	PTS	REB	AST	3PM	DFS
S. Gilgeous-Alexander	30	5	6	2	52
Chet Holmgren	19	9	2	1	40
Isaiah Joe	12	4	2	3	24
K. Williams	10	5	3	1	25
Luguentz Dort	9	4	1	2	21

Pacers vs. Thunder game-day updates and essential details

Friday's game between the Thunder and Pacers at Paycom Center is scheduled to begin at 8:00 PM ET.

• Who: Indiana Pacers vs. Oklahoma City Thunder
• Date: Friday, January 23, 2026
• Time: 8:00 PM ET/5:00PM PT
• Venue: Paycom Center

Conclusion

We predict the Thunder, with an 88% win probability, will likely beat the Pacers on Friday, with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander projected for a game-high 52 fantasy points.

AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Pacers vs. Thunder insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are sourced from up-to-date data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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