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Pacers vs. Thunder Prediction, Picks and Odds
Our detailed prediction and analysis for the Pacers vs. Thunder NBA game on January 23, 2026 is featured below. Drawing from 10,000 game simulations, we provide expert picks, betting odds, and insights.
FINAL
NBA
FINAL
NBA
117
114
Jan 24, 1AM Paycom Center
Jan 24, 1AM Paycom Center
In-Play ProbabilitiesIn-Play
Game PredictionsPre-Game
Best Bets | TEAM | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Pacers | 37 | 21 | 59 | 0 | 117 |
Thunder | 27 | 26 | 61 | 0 | 114 |
Live Probabilities
Spread
Over / Under
Moneyline
Win %
80%
20%
Win Probability
| TEAM | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Pacers | 37 | 21 | 59 | 0 | 117 |
Thunder | 27 | 26 | 61 | 0 | 114 |
Q4 1:12 Thunder makes two point jump shot
Q4 1:19 Pacers misses two point jump shot
Q4 1:44 Pacers misses two point jump shot
Q4 2:13 Andrew Nembhard makes three point jump shot (Pascal Siakam assists)
Q4 2:57 Pacers makes three point jump shot
Q4 3:21 Chet Holmgren makes three point jump shot
Q4 4:31 Kenrich Williams makes two point jump shot
Q4 4:50 Thunder makes two point jump shot
Q4 6:00 Thunder misses two point jump shot
Q4 7:19 Andrew Nembhard makes two point jump shot
Play by Play
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
ALL
End of 4th Quarter.
Jaylin Williams personal foul (Pascal Siakam draws the foul)
Pacers offensive rebound
Chet Holmgren defensive rebound
Pacers personal foul
Thunder lineup change (Jaylin Williams, Isaiah Joe, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Kenrich Williams, Chet Holmgren)
+1
Jarace Walker makes regular free throw 2 of 2
117-114
Pacers lineup change (Jarace Walker, Andrew Nembhard, Pascal Siakam, Aaron Nesmith, Micah Potter)
+1
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes regular free throw 1 of 2
117-114
+1
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes regular free throw 2 of 2
117-114
Pacers 60 second timeout
Luguentz Dort personal foul (Jarace Walker draws the foul)
Pacers lineup change (Jarace Walker, Andrew Nembhard, Pascal Siakam, Johnny Furphy, Aaron Nesmith)
Thunder lineup change (Isaiah Joe, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Chet Holmgren, Cason Wallace, Luguentz Dort)
Aaron Nesmith offensive rebound
+2
Thunder makes two point jump shot
117-114
Aaron Nesmith personal foul
+1
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes regular free throw 1 of 1
117-114
Thunder lineup change (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Kenrich Williams, Chet Holmgren, Cason Wallace, Luguentz Dort)
Pacers misses two point jump shot
Pacers misses two point jump shot
+3
Andrew Nembhard makes three point jump shot (Pascal Siakam assists)
117-114
Pascal Siakam personal foul (Loose ball) (Chet Holmgren draws the foul)
Chet Holmgren misses regular free throw 1 of 2
Instant replay (Challenge: Ruling Overturned)
Thunder offensive rebound
+1
Chet Holmgren makes regular free throw 2 of 2
117-114
+3
Pacers makes three point jump shot
117-114
+3
Chet Holmgren makes three point jump shot
117-114
Andrew Nembhard defensive rebound
Stoppage (Blood rule)
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
+2
Kenrich Williams makes two point jump shot
117-114
Kenrich Williams misses regular free throw 1 of 1
Pacers personal foul
Thunder lineup change (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Kenrich Williams, Chet Holmgren, Cason Wallace, Luguentz Dort)
Isaiah Joe shooting foul (Jarace Walker draws the foul)
+1
Jarace Walker makes regular free throw 1 of 2
117-114
+2
Thunder makes two point jump shot
117-114
Chet Holmgren shooting foul (Jarace Walker draws the foul)
Pacers offensive rebound
+1
Jarace Walker makes regular free throw 2 of 2
117-114
Jarace Walker misses regular free throw 1 of 2
Thunder personal foul
+1
Andrew Nembhard makes regular free throw 1 of 2
117-114
+1
Andrew Nembhard makes regular free throw 2 of 2
117-114
Johnny Furphy defensive rebound
Thunder misses two point jump shot
Pacers turnover
Pacers lineup change (Jarace Walker, Andrew Nembhard, Pascal Siakam, Johnny Furphy, Aaron Nesmith)
Thunder lineup change (Isaiah Joe, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Kenrich Williams, Chet Holmgren, Luguentz Dort)
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
Thunder turnover
Micah Potter defensive rebound
+2
Andrew Nembhard makes two point jump shot
96-91
Jaylin Williams turnover (offensive foul)
Instant replay (Challenge: Ruling Upheld)
Thunder 60 second timeout
Pacers personal foul
+2
Aaron Nesmith makes two point driving finger roll layup
117-114
Pacers lineup change (Jarace Walker, Andrew Nembhard, Johnny Furphy, Aaron Nesmith, Micah Potter)
Aaron Nesmith offensive foul (Luguentz Dort draws the foul)
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
Pacers offensive rebound
Isaiah Jackson turnover
Jaylin Williams turnover (lost ball)
+1
Kenrich Williams makes regular free throw 1 of 2
117-114
+1
Kenrich Williams makes regular free throw 2 of 2
117-114
Kenrich Williams defensive rebound
Kenrich Williams offensive rebound
Thunder misses three point jump shot
T.J. McConnell misses two point running jump shot
Kenrich Williams misses two point jump shot
+3
Pacers makes three point jump shot
98-91
Johnny Furphy defensive rebound
Thunder misses two point jump shot
+2
Kenrich Williams makes two point pullup jump shot
98-91
Micah Potter offensive rebound
Pacers misses two point jump shot
+2
Ousmane Dieng makes two point jump shot
117-114
+2
Pacers makes two point jump shot
98-91
+2
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes two point jump shot
70-65
Pacers lineup change (T.J. McConnell, Andrew Nembhard, Pascal Siakam, Johnny Furphy, Micah Potter)
Chet Holmgren defensive rebound
+2
Isaiah Joe makes two point jump shot (Kenrich Williams assists)
70-65
+1
Isaiah Joe makes regular free throw 1 of 1
117-114
+3
Thunder makes three point jump shot
117-114
Thunder lineup change (Ousmane Dieng, Isaiah Joe, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Kenrich Williams, Chet Holmgren)
+2
Jarace Walker makes two point jump shot
70-65
+2
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes two point jump shot
70-65
Branden Carlson misses two point floating jump shot
Pacers personal foul
+2
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes two point stepback jump shot
70-65
Jarace Walker misses regular free throw 1 of 1
Thunder personal foul
Andrew Nembhard defensive rebound
Pascal Siakam defensive rebound
Thunder misses two point jump shot
Pacers misses three point jump shot
+2
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes two point driving layup
68-64
Pascal Siakam personal foul (Luguentz Dort draws the foul)
Pascal Siakam turnover (offensive foul)
+2
Thunder makes two point jump shot
102-91
+2
Pacers makes two point jump shot
98-91
Thunder misses three point jump shot
+3
Aaron Nesmith makes three point jump shot
68-65
Thunder personal foul
+2
Thunder makes two point jump shot
102-91
Pacers turnover
Pacers misses two point jump shot
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
Jaylin Williams offensive rebound
Thunder misses two point jump shot
Jaylin Williams defensive rebound
Chet Holmgren shooting foul (Jarace Walker draws the foul)
Jarace Walker misses regular free throw 1 of 2
Jarace Walker misses regular free throw 2 of 2
Johnny Furphy defensive rebound
Thunder misses three point jump shot
Chet Holmgren defensive rebound
Thunder offensive rebound
End of 1st Half.
Pacers lineup change (Jarace Walker, Andrew Nembhard, Pascal Siakam, Johnny Furphy, Aaron Nesmith)
Kenrich Williams defensive rebound
Pacers misses three point jump shot
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander personal foul
+1
Pascal Siakam makes regular free throw 1 of 1
58-53
Andrew Nembhard personal foul
Pacers lineup change (T.J. McConnell, Pascal Siakam, Johnny Furphy, Aaron Nesmith, Micah Potter)
Micah Potter defensive rebound
Thunder misses two point jump shot
Pacers misses three point jump shot
Andrew Nembhard defensive rebound
Thunder misses three point jump shot
Thunder defensive rebound
+2
Thunder makes two point jump shot
58-53
Pacers misses three point jump shot
Thunder personal foul
Pacers 60 second timeout
Johnny Furphy misses two point jump shot
Jaylin Williams defensive rebound
Pascal Siakam misses two point jump shot
Pacers personal foul
+1
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes regular free throw 2 of 2
58-53
+2
Pacers makes two point jump shot
53-43
Cason Wallace defensive rebound
Thunder lineup change (Jaylin Williams, Isaiah Joe, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Chet Holmgren, Cason Wallace)
Cason Wallace defensive rebound
Ousmane Dieng defensive rebound
Chet Holmgren defensive rebound
Cason Wallace personal foul (Jay Huff draws the foul)
Thunder lineup change (Jaylin Williams, Ousmane Dieng, Isaiah Joe, Chet Holmgren, Cason Wallace)
Brooks Barnhizer turnover (offensive foul)
+2
T.J. McConnell makes two point jump shot (Aaron Nesmith assists)
37-27
Thunder lineup change (Jaylin Williams, Ousmane Dieng, Brooks Barnhizer, Kenrich Williams, Cason Wallace)
Branden Carlson personal foul (Andrew Nembhard draws the foul)
Pacers lineup change (Andrew Nembhard, Pascal Siakam, Jay Huff, Johnny Furphy, Ben Sheppard)
Andrew Nembhard misses two point jump shot
Thunder lineup change (Branden Carlson, Brooks Barnhizer, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Kenrich Williams, Cason Wallace)
Andrew Nembhard turnover (out of bounds lost ball)
Isaiah Jackson defensive rebound
Pascal Siakam defensive rebound
Thunder misses two point jump shot
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
T.J. McConnell misses two point jump shot
+2
Thunder makes two point jump shot
37-27
Kenrich Williams defensive rebound
Thunder personal foul
Isaiah Jackson misses regular free throw 2 of 2
Pacers offensive rebound
+2
Thunder makes two point jump shot
37-27
Andrew Nembhard offensive foul (Luguentz Dort draws the foul)
Pacers lineup change (T.J. McConnell, Andrew Nembhard, Pascal Siakam, Isaiah Jackson, Johnny Furphy)
Andrew Nembhard offensive rebound
Luguentz Dort misses three point jump shot
Isaiah Jackson defensive rebound
Isaiah Jackson offensive rebound
Pacers lineup change (Jarace Walker, T.J. McConnell, Andrew Nembhard, Pascal Siakam, Isaiah Jackson)
Thunder misses three point jump shot
Thunder lineup change (Branden Carlson, Brooks Barnhizer, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Kenrich Williams, Luguentz Dort)
Thunder lineup change (Isaiah Joe, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Kenrich Williams, Cason Wallace, Luguentz Dort)
+1
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes regular free throw 2 of 2
37-27
Pacers personal foul
Thunder lineup change (Jaylin Williams, Isaiah Joe, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Kenrich Williams, Luguentz Dort)
Jarace Walker misses three point jump shot
T.J. McConnell offensive rebound
Pacers misses two point jump shot
Pacers defensive rebound
Pacers lineup change (Jarace Walker, T.J. McConnell, Andrew Nembhard, Pascal Siakam, Micah Potter)
+2
T.J. McConnell makes two point pullup jump shot
32-24
Thunder misses two point jump shot
Chet Holmgren misses two point jump shot
+3
Pacers makes three point jump shot
30-24
Chet Holmgren defensive rebound
+2
Kenrich Williams makes two point jump shot
27-24
Kenrich Williams defensive rebound
Pacers misses two point jump shot
Pacers misses three point jump shot
Pacers 60 second timeout
Pacers lineup change (Jarace Walker, T.J. McConnell, Pascal Siakam, Ben Sheppard, Micah Potter)
Pacers misses two point jump shot
Pacers misses three point jump shot
+2
Thunder makes two point jump shot
0-2
+3
Ben Sheppard makes three point jump shot
0-2
Johnny Furphy misses two point jump shot
Thunder turnover
Pacers lineup change (T.J. McConnell, Johnny Furphy, Ben Sheppard, Aaron Nesmith, Micah Potter)
+3
Aaron Nesmith makes three point running jump shot (Andrew Nembhard assists)
24-17
Cason Wallace misses two point driving layup
Aaron Nesmith misses two point jump shot
Micah Potter offensive rebound
+2
Chet Holmgren makes two point finger roll layup
19-17
Ben Sheppard misses two point driving layup
+3
Ben Sheppard makes three point jump shot (Aaron Nesmith assists)
19-15
Cason Wallace misses two point jump shot
Andrew Nembhard misses three point jump shot
Ben Sheppard shooting foul (Isaiah Joe draws the foul)
Chet Holmgren defensive rebound
Isaiah Joe shooting foul (Andrew Nembhard draws the foul)
+1
Andrew Nembhard makes regular free throw 1 of 2
16-13
Andrew Nembhard misses regular free throw 2 of 2
Thunder lineup change (Jaylin Williams, Isaiah Joe, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Chet Holmgren, Luguentz Dort)
Pacers lineup change (Andrew Nembhard, Johnny Furphy, Ben Sheppard, Aaron Nesmith, Micah Potter)
Luguentz Dort misses two point pullup jump shot
+2
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes two point finger roll layup
13-13
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander offensive rebound
Jarace Walker shooting foul (Chet Holmgren draws the foul)
+1
Chet Holmgren makes regular free throw 1 of 2
13-10
Johnny Furphy offensive rebound
Cason Wallace personal foul (Aaron Nesmith draws the foul)
+2
Andrew Nembhard makes two point pullup jump shot (Pascal Siakam assists)
11-6
+2
Andrew Nembhard makes two point driving floating bank jump shot (Aaron Nesmith assists)
9-4
Luguentz Dort misses three point jump shot
+2
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes two point jump shot
5-4
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander turnover (lost ball) (Jarace Walker steals)
Jarace Walker defensive rebound
Johnny Furphy misses three point jump shot
Aaron Nesmith defensive rebound
+2
Aaron Nesmith makes two point layup (Andrew Nembhard assists)
2-2
Pacers misses two point jump shot
+2
Chet Holmgren makes two point turnaround fadeaway jump shot
0-2
Pacers lineup change (Jarace Walker, Andrew Nembhard, Pascal Siakam, Johnny Furphy, Aaron Nesmith)
Start of 1st Quarter
Box Score
Player Stats
Team Stats
| Pos | Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| F | 12 | J. Furphy | 4 | 10 | 3 |
| G | 23 | A. Nesmith | 17 | 5 | 5 |
| C | 43 | P. Siakam | 21 | 6 | 6 |
| G | 2 | A. Nembhard | 27 | 7 | 11 |
| F | 5 | J. Walker | 26 | 4 | 3 |
| Pos | Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| F | 6 | J. Williams | 2 | 5 | 3 |
| F | 11 | I. Joe | 7 | 2 | 1 |
| G | 2 | S. Gilgeous-Alexander | 47 | 4 | 4 |
| G-F | 34 | K. Williams | 12 | 7 | 4 |
| C | 7 | C. Holmgren | 25 | 13 | 3 |
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Pacers vs. Thunder: Detailed Breakdown
Matchup Overview
- Teams: Pacers vs. Thunder
- Date: Friday, January 23, 2026
- Time: 8:00 PM ET
- Venue: Paycom Center
Current Betting Odds
- Spread: Thunder favored at -15.5
- Total (Over/Under): 226.5
- Moneyline Odds: Pacers +660, Thunder -900
Dimers' Win Probabilities
- Pacers: 12%
- Thunder: 88%
Dimers' predictive model, renowned for its accuracy, assesses each team's chances by simulating the outcome of the game 10,000 times. This method provides a precise and unbiased view.
Projected Final Score
Our predicted final score for this NBA matchup is Pacers 106-120 Thunder.
This prediction is based on each team's average score following 10,000 game simulations.
Our Prediction: Who Wins?
After extensive simulations, our model gives the Pacers a win probability of 12%, while the Thunder have a win probability of 88%. Discover the best spread, over/under, and moneyline odds for the game on this page.
Summary
According to our analysis, the Thunder are more likely to beat the Pacers in the NBA game at Paycom Center on Saturday. Discover the best spread, over/under and moneyline odds, picks and probabilities for the game on this page.
Our Pacers vs. Thunder predictions, based on sophisticated simulations and current data, guide you in making informed decisions. Remember to bet responsibly and within your financial limits.
For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.
When you click or tap on a link on Dimers that goes to a third-party website that we have a commercial relationship with (such as a sportsbook), we may receive a referral fee.
For further insights, explore our expert NBA predictions and the best NBA bets today, while our in-depth analysis includes NBA props, NBA futures, NBA odds, and the latest NBA news.
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