Pacers vs. Thunder Prediction, Picks and Odds

Our detailed prediction and analysis for the Pacers vs. Thunder NBA game on January 23, 2026 is featured below. Drawing from 10,000 game simulations, we provide expert picks, betting odds, and insights.
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NBA
Pacers
117
114
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Thunder
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TEAM1234T
Pacers
37 21 59 0 117
Thunder
27 26 61 0 114
Live Probabilities
Win %
  • Pacers
    80%
  • Thunder
    20%
Win Probability
TEAM1234T
Pacers
37 21 59 0 117
Thunder
27 26 61 0 114
Q4 1:12 Thunder makes two point jump shot
Q4 1:19 Pacers misses two point jump shot
Q4 1:44 Pacers misses two point jump shot
Q4 2:13 Andrew Nembhard makes three point jump shot (Pascal Siakam assists)
Q4 2:57 Pacers makes three point jump shot
Q4 3:21 Chet Holmgren makes three point jump shot
Q4 4:31 Kenrich Williams makes two point jump shot
Q4 4:50 Thunder makes two point jump shot
Q4 6:00 Thunder misses two point jump shot
Q4 7:19 Andrew Nembhard makes two point jump shot
Play by Play
  1. Q4 00:00
    End of 4th Quarter.
  2. Q4 00:01
    Jaylin Williams personal foul (Pascal Siakam draws the foul)
  3. Q4 00:01
    Pacers offensive rebound
  4. Q4 00:01
    Chet Holmgren defensive rebound
  5. Q4 00:01
    Pacers personal foul
  6. Q4 00:06
    Thunder lineup change (Jaylin Williams, Isaiah Joe, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Kenrich Williams, Chet Holmgren)
  7. Q4 00:06
    +1
    Jarace Walker makes regular free throw 2 of 2
    117-114
  8. Q4 00:07
    Pacers lineup change (Jarace Walker, Andrew Nembhard, Pascal Siakam, Aaron Nesmith, Micah Potter)
  9. Q4 00:07
    +1
    Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes regular free throw 1 of 2
    117-114
  10. Q4 00:07
    +1
    Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes regular free throw 2 of 2
    117-114
  11. Q4 00:07
    Pacers 60 second timeout
  12. Q4 00:10
    Luguentz Dort personal foul (Jarace Walker draws the foul)
  13. Q4 00:10
    Pacers lineup change (Jarace Walker, Andrew Nembhard, Pascal Siakam, Johnny Furphy, Aaron Nesmith)
  14. Q4 00:10
    Thunder lineup change (Isaiah Joe, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Chet Holmgren, Cason Wallace, Luguentz Dort)
  15. Q4 00:46
    Aaron Nesmith offensive rebound
  16. Q4 1:12
    +2
    Thunder makes two point jump shot
    117-114
  17. Q4 1:12
    Aaron Nesmith personal foul
  18. Q4 1:12
    +1
    Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes regular free throw 1 of 1
    117-114
  19. Q4 1:12
    Thunder lineup change (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Kenrich Williams, Chet Holmgren, Cason Wallace, Luguentz Dort)
  20. Q4 1:19
    Pacers misses two point jump shot
  21. Q4 1:44
    Pacers misses two point jump shot
  22. Q4 2:13
    +3
    Andrew Nembhard makes three point jump shot (Pascal Siakam assists)
    117-114
  23. Q4 2:35
    Pascal Siakam personal foul (Loose ball) (Chet Holmgren draws the foul)
  24. Q4 2:35
    Chet Holmgren misses regular free throw 1 of 2
  25. Q4 2:35
    Instant replay (Challenge: Ruling Overturned)
  26. Q4 2:35
    Thunder offensive rebound
  27. Q4 2:35
    +1
    Chet Holmgren makes regular free throw 2 of 2
    117-114
  28. Q4 2:57
    +3
    Pacers makes three point jump shot
    117-114
  29. Q4 3:21
    +3
    Chet Holmgren makes three point jump shot
    117-114
  30. Q4 3:54
    Andrew Nembhard defensive rebound
  31. Q4 4:20
    Stoppage (Blood rule)
  32. Q4 4:23
    Stoppage (Out of bounds)
  33. Q4 4:31
    +2
    Kenrich Williams makes two point jump shot
    117-114
  34. Q4 4:31
    Kenrich Williams misses regular free throw 1 of 1
  35. Q4 4:31
    Pacers personal foul
  36. Q4 4:31
    Thunder lineup change (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Kenrich Williams, Chet Holmgren, Cason Wallace, Luguentz Dort)
  37. Q4 4:44
    Isaiah Joe shooting foul (Jarace Walker draws the foul)
  38. Q4 4:44
    +1
    Jarace Walker makes regular free throw 1 of 2
    117-114
  39. Q4 4:50
    +2
    Thunder makes two point jump shot
    117-114
  40. Q4 5:28
    Chet Holmgren shooting foul (Jarace Walker draws the foul)
  41. Q4 5:28
    Pacers offensive rebound
  42. Q4 5:28
    +1
    Jarace Walker makes regular free throw 2 of 2
    117-114
  43. Q4 5:28
    Jarace Walker misses regular free throw 1 of 2
  44. Q4 5:55
    Thunder personal foul
  45. Q4 5:55
    +1
    Andrew Nembhard makes regular free throw 1 of 2
    117-114
  46. Q4 5:55
    +1
    Andrew Nembhard makes regular free throw 2 of 2
    117-114
  47. Q4 5:58
    Johnny Furphy defensive rebound
  48. Q4 6:00
    Thunder misses two point jump shot
  49. Q4 6:22
    Pacers turnover
  50. Q4 6:22
    Pacers lineup change (Jarace Walker, Andrew Nembhard, Pascal Siakam, Johnny Furphy, Aaron Nesmith)
  51. Q4 6:22
    Thunder lineup change (Isaiah Joe, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Kenrich Williams, Chet Holmgren, Luguentz Dort)
  52. Q4 6:22
    Stoppage (Out of bounds)
  53. Q4 6:22
    Thunder turnover
  54. Q4 6:55
    Micah Potter defensive rebound
  55. Q4 7:19
    +2
    Andrew Nembhard makes two point jump shot
    96-91
  56. Q4 8:15
    Jaylin Williams turnover (offensive foul)
  57. Q4 8:15
    Instant replay (Challenge: Ruling Upheld)
  58. Q4 8:15
    Thunder 60 second timeout
  59. Q4 8:15
    Pacers personal foul
  60. Q4 8:28
    +2
    Aaron Nesmith makes two point driving finger roll layup
    117-114
  61. Q4 8:48
    Pacers lineup change (Jarace Walker, Andrew Nembhard, Johnny Furphy, Aaron Nesmith, Micah Potter)
  62. Q4 9:10
    Aaron Nesmith offensive foul (Luguentz Dort draws the foul)
  63. Q4 9:18
    Stoppage (Out of bounds)
  64. Q4 9:18
    Pacers offensive rebound
  65. Q4 9:44
    Isaiah Jackson turnover
  66. Q4 9:49
    Jaylin Williams turnover (lost ball)
  67. Q4 10:26
    +1
    Kenrich Williams makes regular free throw 1 of 2
    117-114
  68. Q4 10:26
    +1
    Kenrich Williams makes regular free throw 2 of 2
    117-114
  69. Q4 10:34
    Kenrich Williams defensive rebound
  70. Q4 11:09
    Kenrich Williams offensive rebound
  71. Q4 11:12
    Thunder misses three point jump shot
  72. Q4 11:31
    T.J. McConnell misses two point running jump shot
  73. Q3 00:01
    Kenrich Williams misses two point jump shot
  74. Q3 00:18
    +3
    Pacers makes three point jump shot
    98-91
  75. Q3 00:48
    Johnny Furphy defensive rebound
  76. Q3 00:50
    Thunder misses two point jump shot
  77. Q3 1:32
    +2
    Kenrich Williams makes two point pullup jump shot
    98-91
  78. Q3 1:47
    Micah Potter offensive rebound
  79. Q3 1:53
    Pacers misses two point jump shot
  80. Q3 2:15
    +2
    Ousmane Dieng makes two point jump shot
    117-114
  81. Q3 2:31
    +2
    Pacers makes two point jump shot
    98-91
  82. Q3 2:50
    +2
    Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes two point jump shot
    70-65
  83. Q3 2:50
    Pacers lineup change (T.J. McConnell, Andrew Nembhard, Pascal Siakam, Johnny Furphy, Micah Potter)
  84. Q3 2:57
    Chet Holmgren defensive rebound
  85. Q3 3:23
    +2
    Isaiah Joe makes two point jump shot (Kenrich Williams assists)
    70-65
  86. Q3 3:23
    +1
    Isaiah Joe makes regular free throw 1 of 1
    117-114
  87. Q3 3:52
    +3
    Thunder makes three point jump shot
    117-114
  88. Q3 4:07
    Thunder lineup change (Ousmane Dieng, Isaiah Joe, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Kenrich Williams, Chet Holmgren)
  89. Q3 4:09
    +2
    Jarace Walker makes two point jump shot
    70-65
  90. Q3 4:51
    +2
    Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes two point jump shot
    70-65
  91. Q3 5:19
    Branden Carlson misses two point floating jump shot
  92. Q3 5:44
    Pacers personal foul
  93. Q3 5:59
    +2
    Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes two point stepback jump shot
    70-65
  94. Q3 6:34
    Jarace Walker misses regular free throw 1 of 1
  95. Q3 6:34
    Thunder personal foul
  96. Q3 6:39
    Andrew Nembhard defensive rebound
  97. Q3 7:00
    Pascal Siakam defensive rebound
  98. Q3 7:02
    Thunder misses two point jump shot
  99. Q3 7:20
    Pacers misses three point jump shot
  100. Q3 7:28
    +2
    Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes two point driving layup
    68-64
  101. Q3 7:36
    Pascal Siakam personal foul (Luguentz Dort draws the foul)
  102. Q3 7:36
    Pascal Siakam turnover (offensive foul)
  103. Q3 7:49
    +2
    Thunder makes two point jump shot
    102-91
  104. Q3 8:04
    +2
    Pacers makes two point jump shot
    98-91
  105. Q3 8:13
    Thunder misses three point jump shot
  106. Q3 8:31
    +3
    Aaron Nesmith makes three point jump shot
    68-65
  107. Q3 8:36
    Thunder personal foul
  108. Q3 8:45
    +2
    Thunder makes two point jump shot
    102-91
  109. Q3 9:02
    Pacers turnover
  110. Q3 9:04
    Pacers misses two point jump shot
  111. Q3 9:04
    Stoppage (Out of bounds)
  112. Q3 9:30
    Jaylin Williams offensive rebound
  113. Q3 9:33
    Thunder misses two point jump shot
  114. Q3 9:53
    Jaylin Williams defensive rebound
  115. Q3 9:56
    Chet Holmgren shooting foul (Jarace Walker draws the foul)
  116. Q3 9:56
    Jarace Walker misses regular free throw 1 of 2
  117. Q3 9:56
    Jarace Walker misses regular free throw 2 of 2
  118. Q3 11:22
    Johnny Furphy defensive rebound
  119. Q3 11:27
    Thunder misses three point jump shot
  120. Q3 11:34
    Chet Holmgren defensive rebound
  121. Q2 00:00
    Thunder offensive rebound
  122. Q2 00:00
    End of 1st Half.
  123. Q3 12:00
    Pacers lineup change (Jarace Walker, Andrew Nembhard, Pascal Siakam, Johnny Furphy, Aaron Nesmith)
  124. Q2 00:08
    Kenrich Williams defensive rebound
  125. Q2 00:12
    Pacers misses three point jump shot
  126. Q2 00:50
    Shai Gilgeous-Alexander personal foul
  127. Q2 00:50
    +1
    Pascal Siakam makes regular free throw 1 of 1
    58-53
  128. Q2 1:13
    Andrew Nembhard personal foul
  129. Q2 1:13
    Pacers lineup change (T.J. McConnell, Pascal Siakam, Johnny Furphy, Aaron Nesmith, Micah Potter)
  130. Q2 1:42
    Micah Potter defensive rebound
  131. Q2 1:44
    Thunder misses two point jump shot
  132. Q2 1:57
    Pacers misses three point jump shot
  133. Q2 2:07
    Andrew Nembhard defensive rebound
  134. Q2 2:10
    Thunder misses three point jump shot
  135. Q2 2:19
    Thunder defensive rebound
  136. Q2 2:40
    +2
    Thunder makes two point jump shot
    58-53
  137. Q2 2:52
    Pacers misses three point jump shot
  138. Q2 2:58
    Thunder personal foul
  139. Q2 3:11
    Pacers 60 second timeout
  140. Q2 3:24
    Johnny Furphy misses two point jump shot
  141. Q2 3:44
    Jaylin Williams defensive rebound
  142. Q2 3:47
    Pascal Siakam misses two point jump shot
  143. Q2 4:08
    Pacers personal foul
  144. Q2 4:08
    +1
    Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes regular free throw 2 of 2
    58-53
  145. Q2 4:24
    +2
    Pacers makes two point jump shot
    53-43
  146. Q2 4:52
    Cason Wallace defensive rebound
  147. Q2 5:03
    Thunder lineup change (Jaylin Williams, Isaiah Joe, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Chet Holmgren, Cason Wallace)
  148. Q2 5:09
    Cason Wallace defensive rebound
  149. Q2 5:28
    Ousmane Dieng defensive rebound
  150. Q2 5:52
    Chet Holmgren defensive rebound
  151. Q2 6:05
    Cason Wallace personal foul (Jay Huff draws the foul)
  152. Q2 6:05
    Thunder lineup change (Jaylin Williams, Ousmane Dieng, Isaiah Joe, Chet Holmgren, Cason Wallace)
  153. Q2 6:16
    Brooks Barnhizer turnover (offensive foul)
  154. Q2 6:34
    +2
    T.J. McConnell makes two point jump shot (Aaron Nesmith assists)
    37-27
  155. Q2 7:16
    Thunder lineup change (Jaylin Williams, Ousmane Dieng, Brooks Barnhizer, Kenrich Williams, Cason Wallace)
  156. Q2 7:25
    Branden Carlson personal foul (Andrew Nembhard draws the foul)
  157. Q2 7:25
    Pacers lineup change (Andrew Nembhard, Pascal Siakam, Jay Huff, Johnny Furphy, Ben Sheppard)
  158. Q2 7:33
    Andrew Nembhard misses two point jump shot
  159. Q2 7:33
    Thunder lineup change (Branden Carlson, Brooks Barnhizer, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Kenrich Williams, Cason Wallace)
  160. Q2 7:33
    Andrew Nembhard turnover (out of bounds lost ball)
  161. Q2 7:42
    Isaiah Jackson defensive rebound
  162. Q2 8:15
    Pascal Siakam defensive rebound
  163. Q2 8:18
    Thunder misses two point jump shot
  164. Q2 8:29
    Stoppage (Out of bounds)
  165. Q2 8:30
    T.J. McConnell misses two point jump shot
  166. Q2 8:48
    +2
    Thunder makes two point jump shot
    37-27
  167. Q2 9:34
    Kenrich Williams defensive rebound
  168. Q2 9:36
    Thunder personal foul
  169. Q2 9:36
    Isaiah Jackson misses regular free throw 2 of 2
  170. Q2 9:36
    Pacers offensive rebound
  171. Q2 9:58
    +2
    Thunder makes two point jump shot
    37-27
  172. Q2 10:09
    Andrew Nembhard offensive foul (Luguentz Dort draws the foul)
  173. Q2 10:09
    Pacers lineup change (T.J. McConnell, Andrew Nembhard, Pascal Siakam, Isaiah Jackson, Johnny Furphy)
  174. Q2 10:13
    Andrew Nembhard offensive rebound
  175. Q2 10:32
    Luguentz Dort misses three point jump shot
  176. Q2 11:18
    Isaiah Jackson defensive rebound
  177. Q2 11:50
    Isaiah Jackson offensive rebound
  178. Q2 12:00
    Pacers lineup change (Jarace Walker, T.J. McConnell, Andrew Nembhard, Pascal Siakam, Isaiah Jackson)
  179. Q1 00:00
    Thunder misses three point jump shot
  180. Q2 12:00
    Thunder lineup change (Branden Carlson, Brooks Barnhizer, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Kenrich Williams, Luguentz Dort)
  181. Q1 00:05
    Thunder lineup change (Isaiah Joe, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Kenrich Williams, Cason Wallace, Luguentz Dort)
  182. Q1 00:05
    +1
    Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes regular free throw 2 of 2
    37-27
  183. Q1 00:08
    Pacers personal foul
  184. Q1 00:08
    Thunder lineup change (Jaylin Williams, Isaiah Joe, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Kenrich Williams, Luguentz Dort)
  185. Q1 00:17
    Jarace Walker misses three point jump shot
  186. Q1 00:58
    T.J. McConnell offensive rebound
  187. Q1 1:00
    Pacers misses two point jump shot
  188. Q1 1:08
    Pacers defensive rebound
  189. Q1 1:08
    Pacers lineup change (Jarace Walker, T.J. McConnell, Andrew Nembhard, Pascal Siakam, Micah Potter)
  190. Q1 1:22
    +2
    T.J. McConnell makes two point pullup jump shot
    32-24
  191. Q1 1:37
    Thunder misses two point jump shot
  192. Q1 1:43
    Chet Holmgren misses two point jump shot
  193. Q1 2:04
    +3
    Pacers makes three point jump shot
    30-24
  194. Q1 2:12
    Chet Holmgren defensive rebound
  195. Q1 2:27
    +2
    Kenrich Williams makes two point jump shot
    27-24
  196. Q1 2:33
    Kenrich Williams defensive rebound
  197. Q1 2:38
    Pacers misses two point jump shot
  198. Q1 2:51
    Pacers misses three point jump shot
  199. Q1 3:08
    Pacers 60 second timeout
  200. Q1 3:08
    Pacers lineup change (Jarace Walker, T.J. McConnell, Pascal Siakam, Ben Sheppard, Micah Potter)
  201. Q1 3:13
    Pacers misses two point jump shot
  202. Q1 3:45
    Pacers misses three point jump shot
  203. Q1 4:00
    +2
    Thunder makes two point jump shot
    0-2
  204. Q1 4:15
    +3
    Ben Sheppard makes three point jump shot
    0-2
  205. Q1 4:25
    Johnny Furphy misses two point jump shot
  206. Q1 4:30
    Thunder turnover
  207. Q1 4:43
    Pacers lineup change (T.J. McConnell, Johnny Furphy, Ben Sheppard, Aaron Nesmith, Micah Potter)
  208. Q1 4:44
    +3
    Aaron Nesmith makes three point running jump shot (Andrew Nembhard assists)
    24-17
  209. Q1 4:50
    Cason Wallace misses two point driving layup
  210. Q1 5:01
    Aaron Nesmith misses two point jump shot
  211. Q1 5:01
    Micah Potter offensive rebound
  212. Q1 5:22
    +2
    Chet Holmgren makes two point finger roll layup
    19-17
  213. Q1 5:31
    Ben Sheppard misses two point driving layup
  214. Q1 6:08
    +3
    Ben Sheppard makes three point jump shot (Aaron Nesmith assists)
    19-15
  215. Q1 6:24
    Cason Wallace misses two point jump shot
  216. Q1 6:35
    Andrew Nembhard misses three point jump shot
  217. Q1 6:44
    Ben Sheppard shooting foul (Isaiah Joe draws the foul)
  218. Q1 6:55
    Chet Holmgren defensive rebound
  219. Q1 6:57
    Isaiah Joe shooting foul (Andrew Nembhard draws the foul)
  220. Q1 6:57
    +1
    Andrew Nembhard makes regular free throw 1 of 2
    16-13
  221. Q1 6:57
    Andrew Nembhard misses regular free throw 2 of 2
  222. Q1 6:57
    Thunder lineup change (Jaylin Williams, Isaiah Joe, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Chet Holmgren, Luguentz Dort)
  223. Q1 6:57
    Pacers lineup change (Andrew Nembhard, Johnny Furphy, Ben Sheppard, Aaron Nesmith, Micah Potter)
  224. Q1 7:02
    Luguentz Dort misses two point pullup jump shot
  225. Q1 7:31
    +2
    Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes two point finger roll layup
    13-13
  226. Q1 7:37
    Shai Gilgeous-Alexander offensive rebound
  227. Q1 7:44
    Jarace Walker shooting foul (Chet Holmgren draws the foul)
  228. Q1 7:44
    +1
    Chet Holmgren makes regular free throw 1 of 2
    13-10
  229. Q1 7:59
    Johnny Furphy offensive rebound
  230. Q1 8:09
    Cason Wallace personal foul (Aaron Nesmith draws the foul)
  231. Q1 8:42
    +2
    Andrew Nembhard makes two point pullup jump shot (Pascal Siakam assists)
    11-6
  232. Q1 9:18
    +2
    Andrew Nembhard makes two point driving floating bank jump shot (Aaron Nesmith assists)
    9-4
  233. Q1 9:32
    Luguentz Dort misses three point jump shot
  234. Q1 10:03
    +2
    Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes two point jump shot
    5-4
  235. Q1 10:23
    Shai Gilgeous-Alexander turnover (lost ball) (Jarace Walker steals)
  236. Q1 10:52
    Jarace Walker defensive rebound
  237. Q1 11:05
    Johnny Furphy misses three point jump shot
  238. Q1 11:17
    Aaron Nesmith defensive rebound
  239. Q1 11:34
    +2
    Aaron Nesmith makes two point layup (Andrew Nembhard assists)
    2-2
  240. Q1 11:34
    Pacers misses two point jump shot
  241. Q1 11:43
    +2
    Chet Holmgren makes two point turnaround fadeaway jump shot
    0-2
  242. Q1 12:00
    Pacers lineup change (Jarace Walker, Andrew Nembhard, Pascal Siakam, Johnny Furphy, Aaron Nesmith)
  243. Q1 12:00
    Start of 1st Quarter
Box Score
Pacers
PosPlayerPts
Thunder
PosPlayerPts

Pacers vs. Thunder: Detailed Breakdown

Matchup Overview

  • Teams: Pacers vs. Thunder
  • Date: Friday, January 23, 2026
  • Time: 8:00 PM ET
  • Venue: Paycom Center

Current Betting Odds

  • Spread: Thunder favored at -15.5
  • Total (Over/Under): 226.5
  • Moneyline Odds: Pacers +660, Thunder -900

Dimers' Win Probabilities

  • Pacers: 12%
  • Thunder: 88%

Dimers' predictive model, renowned for its accuracy, assesses each team's chances by simulating the outcome of the game 10,000 times. This method provides a precise and unbiased view.

Projected Final Score

Our predicted final score for this NBA matchup is Pacers 106-120 Thunder.

This prediction is based on each team's average score following 10,000 game simulations.

Our Prediction: Who Wins?

After extensive simulations, our model gives the Pacers a win probability of 12%, while the Thunder have a win probability of 88%. Discover the best spread, over/under, and moneyline odds for the game on this page.

Summary

According to our analysis, the Thunder are more likely to beat the Pacers in the NBA game at Paycom Center on Saturday. Discover the best spread, over/under and moneyline odds, picks and probabilities for the game on this page.

Our Pacers vs. Thunder predictions, based on sophisticated simulations and current data, guide you in making informed decisions. Remember to bet responsibly and within your financial limits.

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